以色列连续三年净移民为负，经济长期前景堪忧
Why Israel’s Economy Might Be Doomed Long-Term
For 3 years in a row now, Israel experienced net negative migration. In other words, more Israelis have left the country than entered it. According to a new report published earlier this month by researchers at Tel Aviv University, in each of 2023, 2024, and 2025, around 50,000 Israelis left the country for more than 12 months. The longest continuous period of Israeli emigration in history. This has raised concerns about the future of the Israeli economy as more high-earning Israelis take their careers and tax revenues overseas.
连续三年，以色列经历了净负迁移。换句话说，离开以色列的人数超过了进入以色列的人数。根据特拉维夫大学研究人员本月早些时候发布的一份新报告，在2023年、2024年和2025年，每年约有5万以色列人离开该国超过12个月。这是以色列历史上最长的一段移民潮。这引发了对以色列经济未来的担忧，因为越来越多高收入的以色列人将他们的职业生涯和税收带到了海外。
While the remaining population becomes more religious and less economically productive. Specifically, the ultra-Orthodox Haredim, among whom 53% of men are unemployed, are set to make up a quarter of the population by 2050. So, in this video, we'll explain Israel's emigration crisis and why the long-term economic outlook is pretty bleak. Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu promised a total regime change in Iran, but so far that hasn't happened.
而剩余的人口变得更加宗教化，经济生产力降低。具体来说，极端正统派哈雷迪犹太人，其中53%的男性失业，预计到2050年将占人口的四分之一。因此，在本视频中，我们将解释以色列的移民危机以及为什么长期经济前景相当黯淡。唐纳德·特朗普和本杰明·内塔尼亚胡承诺在伊朗实现彻底政权更迭，但到目前为止这并未发生。
We explain why Trump was wrong and what post-war Iran leadership might actually look like in the ninth issue of our magazine, Too Long. That's just one of the articles in our longest issue ever. Subscribe to get your copy by clicking the link in the description. Let's start with Israel's emigration crisis. According to a new report from Tel Aviv University, in each of 2023, 2024, and 2025, around 100,000 Israelis, roughly 1% of the population, left the country for more than 3 months, the highest and most sustained period of emigration on record.
我们在杂志《太长》的第九期中解释了为什么特朗普错了，以及战后伊朗领导层可能实际是什么样子。这只是我们有史以来最长一期中的一篇文章。订阅以通过点击描述中的链接获取您的副本。让我们从以色列的移民危机开始。根据特拉维夫大学的一份新报告，在2023年、2024年和2025年，每年约有10万以色列人，约占人口的1%，离开该国超过3个月，这是有记录以来最高且持续时间最长的移民潮。
Meanwhile, the number leaving Israel for a period of more than 12 months hovered at around 50,000 in 2023 and 2024. While the full 2025 data won't be available until the start of 2027, researchers have found a very strong correlation between the 3-month and 12-month measures. And they're able to estimate that, like in 2023 and 2024, another 45 to left the country in 2025. Crucially, while this isn't abnormal by international standards, it's unprecedented by Israeli standards.
与此同时，离开以色列超过12个月的人数在2023年和2024年徘徊在约5万人左右。虽然2025年的完整数据要到2027年初才能获得，但研究人员发现3个月和12个月指标之间存在非常强的相关性。他们能够估计，与2023年和2024年一样，2025年又有45人离开该国。关键在于，虽然按国际标准这并不异常，但按以色列标准却是前所未有的。
In the 2010s, immigration to Israel accounted for 20% of annual population growth. And Israel has only seen net negative migration a couple of times in its history. Once in the 1980s, driven by a severe economic crisis that saw inflation skyrocket to around 400% and once in the 1950s, driven by economic hardship resulting from the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. Both times, emigration from Israel was driven by economic factors, and both times, Israel's demographic stability quickly recovered.
在2010年代，移民占以色列年人口增长的20%。而在其历史上，以色列仅出现过几次净负迁移。一次是在1980年代，由严重的经济危机驱动，当时通货膨胀飙升至约400%；另一次是在1950年代，由1948年阿以战争导致的经济困难所驱动。这两次，以色列的移民外流均受经济因素影响，且两次以色列的人口稳定性都迅速恢复。
This time, however, Israel's exodus is largely a result of its prolonged military conflict in Gaza and Lebanon and the corresponding political situation, which doesn't look likely to be resolved soon. For context, in early 2023, before the Israel-Hamas War, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a controversial set of judicial reforms, which would expand the government's powers over judicial appointments.
然而，这次以色列的人口外流主要是其长期在加沙和黎巴嫩的军事冲突以及相应的政治局势所致，而这种局势短期内似乎不太可能得到解决。作为背景，在2023年初，即以色列-哈马斯战争之前，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡推出了一系列有争议的司法改革，这些改革将扩大政府对司法任命的影响力。
This sparked huge nationwide protests in Israel, with protesters ac
这引发了以色列全国范围内的大规模抗议活动，抗议者
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