美联储7月纪要显示内部分歧，通胀前景不确定

THIS IS BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY, REPORTING FROM THE MAGAZINE THAT HELPS GLOBAL LEADERS STAY AT WITH INSIGHT ON THE PEOPLE, COMPANIES AND TRENDS SHAPING TODAY'S CONTEXT ECONOMY -- COMPLEX ECONOMY. BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY WITH CAROL MASSAR AND TIM STENOVEC. LIVE ON BLOOMBERG RADIO, TELEVISION, AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. CAROL: ALL RIGHT, EVERYBODY. A VERY GOOD AFTERNOON ACROSS PLATFORMS. THIS IS BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY.

CAROL MASSAR, TIM IS OFF TODAY. JOINING US IS BLOOMBERG'S CREDIT REPORTER.

MY TITLE IS CREDIT REPORTER AND IT'S BEEN A YEAR IN CREDIT. WE HAVE A LOT OF MOVES TODAY WE WILL GET INTO, BUT IT IS A MACRO DAY. CAROL: IT IS INDEED. IT IS FED WEDNESDAY. A FED WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 19, 2026. WE DO GET THE FED MINUTES IN JUST A MOMENT. THIS IS A WALL STREET REBOUND AFTER THE TREASURY SAID IT PLANS TO REDUCE BUYBACKS OF LONG BONDS, A SIGNAL THAT THE U.S. WANTS TO LOWER BORROWING COSTS AFTER YIELD TO MULTI-DECADE HIGHS.

LET'S MOVE TO THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND MICHAEL MCKEE. REPORTER: KEVIN WARSH WAS RIGHT, THE MINUTES SUGGEST THERE WAS AN OLD-FASHIONED FAMILY FIGHT AT THE JULY MEETING, WHICH AS PARTICIPANTS ARGUED OVER THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY. TWO LINES OF GENERAL AGREEMENT STANDS OUT. MANY PARTICIPANTS ASSESSED POLICY TIGHTENING WOULD LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF INFLATION DID NOT DECLINE. REMEMBER, THIS MEETING TOOK PLACE AFTER THE JUNE CPI REPORT THAT SHOWED INFLATION HAD DECLINED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED.

ANTICIPATIONS JUDGE AT THE INFLATION OUTLOOKS WERE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AND INFLATION RISKS WERE SKEWED TO THE UPSIDE. MANY PARTICIPANTS NOTED THE RECENT RE-ESCALATION OF THE CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST SIGNIFICANTLY CROWDED THE INFLATION OUTLOOK. INFLATION WAS FIRST AND FOREMOST IN THE DEBATE AND THE COMMITTEES COUNTING WORDS SHOW UP A LOT OF DIVISION. SEVERAL PARTICIPANTS NOTED PRICE INCREASES OVER THE PAST YEAR WERE BROAD-BASED AND SOME SAID UNDERLYING INFLATION APPEARED TO BE ELEVATED.

AI SPENDING HAD ALSO BEEN SUBJECT TO PRICE PRESSURES. BUT INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAINED CONTAINED AND MOST PARTICIPANTS ANTICIPATED INFLATION WOULD STEP DOWN OVER THE REST OF THE YEAR AS THE EFFECTS OF TARIFFS AND EARLIER ENERGY PRICE INCREASES WAY. BUT AGAIN, WHAT MANY PARTICIPANTS GO TO THE POSSIBILITY INFLATION MIGHT BE MORE ELEVATED. SEVERAL COMPANIES ACCOMMODATED PRICE INCREASES BY COMPRESSING MARGINS, BUT THEY SUGGESTED IF THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT WENT ON, THEY MIGHT HAVE TO RAISE PRICES, WHILE A COUPLE OF NOTED BUSINESS CONTACTS JUDGE CONSUMERS WOULD RESIST PRICE INCREASES.

THEY ALSO DISAGREED ON THE IMPACT OF AI, WITH SOME NOTING ITS INFLATION RISKS IN THE SHORT RUN, WHILE SOME ALSO SAID AI PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES WOULD CANCEL THAT OUT. IN THE AIR AND, MOST MEMBERS AGREED TO HOLD RATES AT THE MEETING -- IN THE END, MOST MEMBERS AGREED TO HOLD RATES AT THE MEETING. SPEAKING OF ADDITIONAL MEETINGS, CHAIRMAN WARSH SUGGESTED SIX SCHEDULED MEETINGS PER YEAR TO THE COMMITTEE, HELD ROUGHLY EVERY TWO MONTHS, SAYING THAT WOULD ALLOW MORE INFORMATION TO ACCUMULATE BETWEEN MEETINGS AND PROVIDE POLICY MAKERS AND STAFF WITH MORE TIME TO CONSIDER WHAT HE CALLED STRATEGIC POLICY ISSUES.

WARSH ASKED FOR INPUT FROM THE COMMITTEE AND NO DECISION WAS REACHED AT THE MEETING OTHER THAN THERE WOULD BE NO CHANGES MADE THIS YEAR. CAROL: MICHAEL MCKEE AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE. MIKE WILL STAY WITH US. I'M LOOKING QUICKLY IN TERMS OF MARKET REACTION. A LITTLE LIFT TO THE EQUITY TRADE. I DID SEE THE S&P UP ABOUT 22 POINTS AHEAD OF THE FED MINUTES. THEY ARE NOW UP ABOUT 32. THE NASDAQ WAS DOWN A FRACTION OF A POINT AND NOW IT'S DOWN TO AN HALF POINTS.

LET'S GO TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN TERMS OF U.S. TREASURY YIELDS . WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A DIP LOWER. 5-YEAR NOTE WITH A YIELD OF 535 AND 10 YEAR WITH A YIELD OF 465. INTERESTING. SIX MEETINGS BY THE FOMC WOULD BE TWO LESS THAN WHAT IS ON THE CALENDAR CURRENTLY. WHAT IS STICKING OUT HERE FOR YOU FOLLOWING THE LATEST FED MEETING SMART YOU WERE THERE IN THE ROOM, PUT A QUESTION TO KEVIN WARSH, FED CHAIR THAT MANY THOUGHT WAS VERY SMART IN TERMS OF, WHAT ARE YOU WATCHING TO FIGURE OUT WHERE WE GO NEXT?

TELL US BASED OFF OF THESE MINUTES IF YOU THAT ANY MORE CREDIT -- CLARITY ABOUT WHAT THE FOMC IS THINKING. REPORTER: WHAT THE MINUTES SHOW IS THE COMMITTEE WAS MUCH MORE DIVIDED THAN PEOPLE ANTICIPATED. THE COUNTING WORDS THEY USED, THE ADJECTIVES FOR HOW MANY PEOPLE WERE ON ONE SIDE OR ANOTHER, ARE MUCH MORE IN EVIDENCE IN THIS SET OF MINUTES THEN I THINK I'VE EVER SEEN. ESPECIALLY THE WORD SOME, AND SEVERAL. IT SOUNDS LIKE BASICALLY THERE WERE PEOPLE WHO HAD OPINIONS ON THE WHOLE RANGE OF THINGS THAT WERE EXPRESSED, WHICH WORSHIPS THAT HE WANTS TO SEE BUT IT DID NOT SUGGEST AT THIS POINT THAT THEY DID NOT HAVE ANY VIEW OF WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE WITH INFLATION.

THEY DID SAY IT'S VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MY THOUGHT WAS THAT THREE WEEKS AGO WHEN THE MEETING TOOK PLACE, THEY MAY HAVE STILL BEEN LEANING TOWARD THE IDEA OF A SEPTEMBER RATE CUT. WE HAVE SEEN INFLATION TO THEIR VIEW SINCE THEN IN THE MARKETS. THIS WAS A SOMEWHAT HAWKISH GROUP OF PEOPLE WHO WERE CONCERNED ABOUT INFLATION AND THE FACT THAT THEY DIDN'T KNOW WHAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN. EMILY: WE ARE LIKELY TO HEAR FROM THE FED AGAIN IN JUST A WEEK FROM NOW AT JACKSON HOLE.

NOW THAT WE'VE LOOKED THROUGH THE MINUTES AND WE HAVE A LITTLE BIT MORE OF AN UNDERSTANDING ON HOW THEY ARE THINKING ABOUT INFLATIONARY PRESSURES AND THE HEALTH OF THE ECONOMY, DOES IT INFORM US AT ALL ABOUT WHAT WE WILL HEAR NEXT WEEK? REPORTER: I DON'T REALLY THINK SO BECAUSE OF THE STANCE KEVIN WARSH HAS TAKEN ABOUT NO FORWARD GUIDANCE. I SUSPECT HE MIGHT OFFER MORE IN ONE OF THE FRAMEWORK FOR MONETARY POLICY IS AND WHAT THE REACTION FUNCTION IS.

HE MAY OUTLINE MORE ABOUT WHAT HE'S TRYING TO DO WITH HIS TASKFORCES AND REFORMS AT THE FED, AND FINALLY SOME MORE COMMENT ON HOW MANY MEETINGS THEY MIGHT HAVE. BUT I DON'T THINK THE MARKETS WILL HAVE A TAKE AWAY THAT THE FED WILL DO THIS OR THAT IN THE WAY THEY HAVE AFTER SOME CHAIRMAN'S' ADDRESSES. CAROL: WHAT IS NOT ANSWERED FOR YOU IN THE MINUTES? WE ALWAYS GET MORE DETAIL BUT WHAT IS REALLY MISSING HERE FOR YOU STILL?

REPORTER: I DON'T THINK WE GET A REAL CLEAR VIEW OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN AHEAD. THERE WAS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT IF INFLATION DOES NOT COME DOWN, THEY MIGHT HAVE TO RAISE RATES, BUT THERE WAS ALSO AGREEMENT THE INFLATION PICTURE WAS EXTREMELY CLOUDY. THEY SAID IN THE MINUTES THAT THEY WERE HOPING, THE FACT THAT THEY WOULD HAVE TWO CPI REPORTS, TWO PPR REPORTS AND TWO CPI REPORTS -- CPE REPORTS BEFORE GETTING MORE CLARITY AND THAT IS STILL WHERE WE ARE TODAY.

EMILY: PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE FOMC MINUTES BUT ON THE NEWS OF THE TREASURY AND DEBT BUYBACKS. CAROL: IT'S ALL KIND OF RELATED. BUT I'M CURIOUS. THE TREASURY DOES THIS, BUT THE SIZE AND TIMING OF IT IS SUPER INTERESTING. REPORTER: THE SIZE IS VERY SMALL COMPARED TO THE SIZE OF THE OVERALL TREASURY MARKET, AND IT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT IN THE OF ITSELF. IT'S MORE OF THE SIGNAL THAT THEY DON'T LIKE THE DIRECTION INTEREST RATES HAVE GONE IN AND THEY MIGHT TRY TO CONVINCE MARKETS NOT TO PUSH UP RATES SO AGGRESSIVELY.

WHETHER THAT WORKS OR NOT, WE WILL HAVE TO SEE. A LOT OF SHORT COVERING TODAY ACCORDING TO BOND STRATEGISTS. WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS THE TREASURY USING ONE OF ITS TOOLS AND THAT IS THE MATURITY CURVE TO TRY TO CONTROL WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN, BUYING MORE AT THE SHORT END AND BUYING BACK FEW AT THE LONG END -- BY BETH MOORE AT THE LONG AND, GIVES MORE MONEY TO THE SYSTEM SO PEOPLE CAN BUY MORE BONDS. BUT THE MATURITY SHIFT DOES PUT RISK INTO WHAT THEY ARE DOING.

WHAT'S INTERESTING IS ALSO SCOTT BESSENT WAS VERY CRITICAL OF JANET YELLEN FOR DOING THE SAME WHEN SHE WAS TREASURY SECRETARY AND NOW HE FINDS HIMSELF DOING IT. I GUESS THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE FED IS THAT IF YOU WANT TO BRING DOWN LOWER RATES, ONE GOOD WAY TO DO THAT WOULD BE TO RAISE SHORT RATES BECAUSE THAT GIVES THE MARKETS MORE CREDIBILITY FOR THE FED ON INFLATION AND THAT