特朗普暂停对加拿大50%关税,称已达成协议
Trump, Carney Optimistic on Trade Deal | Radio Balance of Power: Early Edition 8/19/2026
美加贸易谈判出现重大转折,特朗普暂停50%关税并宣称达成协议,直接影响北美贸易格局与市场风险偏好,建议关注后续三天协议细节及对加元、相关板块的影响。
LIVE FROM WASHINGTON DC, THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" WITH JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. KAILEY: THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS WATCHING THE BOND MARKET, CANADA AND TECH.WELCOME TO "BALANCE OF POWER." THE PRESIDENT PUNTING ON NEW CANADIAN TARIFFS THAT WERE SET TO GO INTO EFFECT TODAY AND INSTEAD SHIFT HIS FOCUS TO A MEETING AT THE WHITE HOUSE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LEADERS OF BIG TECH AND CRYPTO COMPANIES. WE GET THE LATEST FROM THE WHITE HOUSE FROM BLOOMBERG'S TYLER KENDALL, AND TALK ABOUT THE CEOS WHO WERE NOT INVITED TO THIS MEETING, THE ONES THAT LEAD PREDICTION MARKETS, WITH CHRIS CHRISTIE.
来自华盛顿的现场直播,这里是乔·马蒂厄和凯莉·莱因茨主持的《权力平衡》。凯莉:特朗普政府正在关注债券市场、加拿大和科技领域。欢迎收看《权力平衡》。总统推迟了原定于今天生效的对加拿大新关税,转而将焦点转向今天下午在白宫与大型科技和加密货币公司领导人的会面。我们从彭博社的泰勒·肯德尔那里获取白宫的最新消息,并讨论那些未被邀请参加此次会议的首席执行官们,即那些引领预测市场的CEO,与克里斯·克里斯蒂一起。
WE HAD TO TALK ABOUT THE TREASURY'S NEW BIGGER BUYBACK PROGRAM FOR A LONG AND RATES AS THEY LOOK TO PUT PRESSURE ON YIELDS THAT HAVE RISEN TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN DECADES. WE WILL TALK ABOUT SCOTT BESSENT'S MOVE. WE WILL GET INTO THE RESULTS OF YESTERDAY'S PRIMARIES. FLORIDA AND ALASKA IN FOCUS. BUT FIRST LET'S TALK ABOUT THESE FINANCIAL MARKETS IN THE BOND MARKET REACTION TO SCOTT BESSENT'S MOVE. AMY: TREASURY IS INCREASING THE SIZE OF LIQUIDITY SUPPORT BUYBACK OPERATIONS FOR SECURITIES DATED FROM THE 10 YEAR SECTOR BY AT LEAST DOUBLE.
我们必须讨论财政部新的更大规模的回购计划,以及利率问题,因为他们试图对已升至数十年高位的收益率施加压力。我们将讨论斯科特·贝森特的举措。我们将深入探讨昨天初选的结果。佛罗里达和阿拉斯加成为焦点。但首先,让我们谈谈这些金融市场对斯科特·贝森特举措的债券市场反应。艾米:财政部正在将针对10年期领域证券的流动性支持回购操作的规模至少增加一倍。
THE MOVE IS INTENDED TO REIN IN LONG-TERM BORROWING COSTS FOR MULTIYEAR HIGHS. THAT IS WHAT KEPT HE WAS MORTGAGE AND OTHER BORROWING RATES HIGH. THE RAMPED UP BUYBACKS ARE SET TO BEGIN SEPTEMBER 9. THIS HAS ALL SPARKED A WALL STREET REBOUND. WE CHECK MARKETS FOR YOU ALL DAY LONG AND BLOOMBERG. S&P 500 UP .3%. NASDAQ UP .25%. THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD NOW AT 4.65%. THE TWO YEAR YIELD AT 4.18%. THE AFOREMENTIONED 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELD 5.19%.
此举旨在抑制长期借贷成本,使其从多年高点回落。这正是导致抵押贷款和其他借贷利率居高不下的原因。加强后的回购计划将于9月9日开始实施。这一切引发了华尔街的反弹。我们在彭博全天候为您关注市场动态。标普500指数上涨0.3%。纳斯达克指数上涨0.25%。10年期美国国债收益率现为4.65%。两年期收益率为4.18%。前述30年期美国国债收益率为5.19%。
CRUDE OIL MOVING HIGHER. WTI CLOSING IN ON $87 A BARREL. BRENT CRUDE TOPPING $92 A BARREL. A PERSONALIZED VACCINE DEVELOPED BY MADRONA AND MARK HELP REDUCE THE RECURRENCE OF MELANOMA IN LARGE LATE STAGE TRIALS. THE TRIAL MET ITS MAIN GOAL OF SHOWING THIS VACCINE COMBINED WITH MERCK'S IMMUNE DRUG REDUCED MELANOMA OCCURRENCES MORE THAN THE IMMUNOTHERAPY ALONE. THE MODERNA SEE US AS IT COULD BE APPROVED AS SOON AS NEXT YEAR.
原油价格走高。西德克萨斯中质原油逼近每桶87美元。布伦特原油突破每桶92美元。由莫德纳和默克开发的个性化疫苗在大型晚期试验中有助于减少黑色素瘤的复发。该试验达到了其主要目标,表明这种疫苗与默克的免疫药物联合使用比单独使用免疫疗法更能减少黑色素瘤的发生。莫德纳认为该疫苗最早可能在明年获得批准。
SHARES OF MODERNA NOW 141% HIGHER. TARGET SHARES NEARLY 6% HIGHER. TARGET LIFTED ITS FULL-YEAR GUIDANCE AFTER RESULTS OUTPACED ESTIMATES, SUGGESTING TARGET MAY BE MOVING PAST A LENGTHY SALES SLUMP. THE TARGET LOOKING FOR CONSISTENT GROWTH FOLLOWING THREE YEARS OF DECLINING REVENUE. FOR ON DEMAND NEWS, 24 HOURS A DAY SUBSCRIBE TO BLOOMBERG NEWS WHEREVER YOU GET YOUR PODCASTS. THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. KAILEY: WATCHING THE MARKETS THAT DO NOT HAVE TO ADJUST TO A NEW REALITY OF A STRICTER TARIFF REGIME ON ONE OF THE U.S.'S LARGEST TRADING PARTNERS.
莫德纳股价现上涨141%。塔吉特股价上涨近6%。塔吉特在业绩超出预期后上调了全年指引,表明塔吉特可能正在走出漫长的销售低迷期。塔吉特在经历三年收入下滑后寻求持续增长。如需随时获取新闻,全天24小时,无论您在哪里收听播客,都可订阅彭博新闻。这里是彭博商业快讯。凯莉:关注那些不必适应美国最大贸易伙伴之一更严格关税制度新现实的市场。
AT THE VERY LEAST NOT YET. AS OF 10:14 P.M. LAST NIGHT THERE WAS A REAL CHANCE THOSE 50% LEVIES ON BILLIONS OF CANADIAN GOODS WOULD GO INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT. THEN AT 10:15 , THE PRESIDENT WRITING "I PAUSED THE 50% TARIFFS ON CANADA FOR A THREE DAY PERIOD , BASED ON THE FACT THAT CANADA AND THE USA SUBJECT TO THE FINALIZATION OF DOCUMENTS HAVE A DEAL." THE CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER MARK CARNEY IS WEIGHING IN AS WELL, SAYING ON X THAT CANADA ENTERED THESE DISCUSSIONS WITH THE BEST OVERALL TRADE TERMS.
至少目前还没有。截至昨晚10点14分,对价值数十亿美元的加拿大商品征收50%关税的措施确实有可能在午夜生效。然后在10点15分,总统写道:“我暂停对加拿大征收50%关税三天,基于加拿大和美国在文件最终确定的前提下已达成协议。”加拿大总理马克·卡尼也发表看法,在X上表示加拿大以最佳整体贸易条款进入这些讨论。
WE ARE MOVING TOWARD AN AGREEMENT THAT REINFORCES THAT CANADIAN ADVANTAGE, INCLUDING BY SECURING THE BEST TERMS IN EACH OF CANADA'S MOST IMPORTANT STRATEGIC SECTORS. AS WE CONSIDER THE PATH TOWARD A FINAL DEAL IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WE TURN TO BLOOMBERG WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT TYLER KENDALL LIVE AT THE WHITE HOUSE, WHO HAD A CHANCE TO QUESTION THE PRESIDENT DIRECTLY ABOUT THIS EARLIER TODAY. TYLER: AT THIS POINT, WE ARE GETTING OPTIMISTIC TALK FROM BOTH PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THE CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER.
我们正朝着一项强化加拿大优势的协议迈进,包括在加拿大最重要的战略领域确保最优条款。在我们考虑未来三天达成最终协议的路径时,我们连线彭博社驻华盛顿记者泰勒·肯德尔,他正在白宫现场,今天早些时候有机会直接就此向总统提问。泰勒:目前,特朗普总统和加拿大总理都发表了乐观言论。
THE ONE THING WE ARE STILL MISSING ARE THOSE KEY DETAILS ON WHAT IS GOING TO BE IN THIS AGREEMENT THAT ULTIMATELY CAUSED THIS WHITE HOUSE TO STOP ITS INTENT TO IMPOSE SOME PUNISHING TARIFFS OF UP TO 50% ON $20 BILLION WORTH OF CANADIAN GOODS. BUT I HAD THE CHANCE TO ASK PRESIDENT TRUMP DIRECTLY TO SEE IF WE COULD GLEAN ANY DETAILS ON WHAT MAY BE IN THAT AGREEMENT.
我们仍然缺少的关键细节是,这项协议中究竟包含什么内容,最终促使白宫停止对价值200亿美元的加拿大商品征收高达50%惩罚性关税的意图。但我有机会直接向特朗普总统提问,看看我们能否从中获取协议可能包含的任何细节。
DO YOU HAVE ANY UPDATE ON NEGOTIATIONS? PRES. TRUMP: WE HAD A VERY GOOD CONVERSATION WITH THE PRIME MINISTER LAST NIGHT AND HAVE COME TO A DEAL WITH CANADA. THE 50% TARIFFS ACROSS THE BOARD WE ARE GOING ON AGAINST CANADA TODAY. THEY CALLED YESTERDAY AND GAVE US THE POINTS WE HAD TO HAVE. FAIR DEAL FROM BOTH. OUR FARMERS WILL BE THRILLED. OUR MANUFACTURERS WILL BE THRILLED. WE HAVE NO TARIFFS GOING INTO CANADA ANYMORE.
谈判有什么最新进展吗?特朗普总统:我们昨晚与总理进行了非常愉快的交谈,并与加拿大达成了协议。我们今天原本要对加拿大全面征收50%的关税。他们昨天打电话来,给了我们必须得到的要点。双方公平交易。我们的农民会很高兴。我们的制造商会很高兴。我们不再对加拿大征收关税了。
TYLER: THERE ARE A FEW POINTS OF CONTEXT. ONE, THESE 50% THREATENED LEVIES WERE GOING TO BE UNDER SECTION 338, WHICH HAS NEVER BEEN USED BEFORE BUT GIVES THE PRESIDENT AUTHORITY TO ISSUE TARIFFS OF UP TO 50% IF THE U.S. FEELS A COUNTRY IS DISCRIMINATING AGAINST U.S. COMMERCE. THE MORE STICKY ARE PART OF TRADE NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CANADA COMES DOWN TO THOSE SECTION 232 TARIFFS OVER NATIONAL SECURED CONCERNS RELATED TO AUTOS AND LUMBER.
泰勒:有几个背景要点。第一,这50%的威胁性关税将依据第338条实施,该条款此前从未被使用过,但赋予总统在美方认为某国歧视美国商业时征收高达50%关税的权力。更棘手的是,美加贸易谈判中涉及的第232条关税,是基于国家安全考虑,与汽车和木材相关。
I FOLLOWED UP BY ASKING THE PRESIDENT IF WE COULD EXPECT ANY LOWERING OF THE RATES WHEN IT COMES TO THOSE LEVIES IN PARTICULAR. HE SEEMED TO NOD THAT THERE MAY BE MOVEMENT. HE SAID SOME THINGS NEED TO BE FINALIZED BUT ULTIMATELY THE U.S. NEEDS TO GET SOME THINGS IN NEGOTIATION TOO. THAT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP YOUR EYES ON AS WE FIGURE OUT WHAT THE AGREEMENT IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE. KAILEY: I KNOW YOU HAVE TO GET BACK INTO THE WHITE HOUSE BECAUSE AN IMPORTANT MEETING WILL BE TAKING PLACE IN ABOUT AN HOUR.
我随后追问总统,这些关税的税率是否会有所下调。他似乎点头表示可能会有变动。他说有些事情需要敲定,但最终美方在谈判中也需要有所收获。在我们确定协议最终形态的过程中,这一点值得关注。凯莉:我知道你得回白宫了,因为大约一小时后有一场重要会议。
THE PRESIDENT MEETING WITH A NUMBER OF TECH AND CRYPTO EXECUTIVES IN PARTICULAR. TELL US WHAT WE SHOULD EXPECT. TYLER: THIS IS BEING BILLED AS A PREVIEW TO A CFT SUMMIT TOMORROW THAT WILL FOCUS ON SOME OF THOSE TOP ISSUES RELATED TO CRYPTO, DIGITAL ASSETS AND PREDICTION MARKETS. THERE IS REPORTING THAT PREDICTION MARKET CEOS WILL NOT BE IN ATTENDANCE. IT IS GOING TO BE MORE OF THE CEOS RELATED TO CRYPTO. WE ARE WAITING FOR A FINAL CONFIRMATION LIST.
总统将特别会见多位科技和加密货币高管。请告诉我们预期会有什么。泰勒:这被定位为明天CFT峰会的预热,届时将聚焦加密货币、数字资产和预测市场相关的一些热点议题。有报道称预测市场的CEO们不会出席,更多是加密货币领域的CEO。我们正在等待最终确认名单。
I DON'T NEED TO TELL YOU AT THIS POINT WE ARE CLOSELY WATCHING WITH THE SENATE WILL DO WHEN IT COMES TO THE MARKET STRUCTURE, THE CLARITY ACT SEPTEMBER 15 WE ARE EXPECTING THE BOOK TO HAPPEN. IT IS NOT A DONE DEAL AND THAT WILL OPEN BIG QUESTIONS ABOUT REGULATION FOR THE INDUSTRY AND WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE GOING FORWARD. KAILEY: WE LOOK FORWARD TO YOUR COVERAGE FROM THIS AFTERNOON. PRESIDENT TRUMP SLATED TO SPEAK 2:30 P.M.
此时无需多言,我们正密切关注参议院在《市场结构清晰法案》上的动向,预计9月15日将进行表决。这并非板上钉钉,届时将引发关于行业监管及其未来走向的重大问题。凯莉:我们期待你下午的报道。特朗普总统定于下午2:30发表讲话。
EASTERN TIME ON THAT. AS WE WERE TALKING TO TYLER, WE DID JUST GET A RED HEADLINE PERTAINING TO THE$16 BILLION 20 YEAR AUCTION FROM THE UNITED STATES TREASURY. MORE ISSUANCE. AS WE CONSIDER THE TAKEDOWN, IT DID DRAW A SILLY HIGHER YIELD THAN THE PRESALE -- A SLIGHTLY HIGHER YIELD THAN THE PRESALE, DRAWING 5.204%. THIS FOLLOWS THE BIG ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT AS SCOTT BESSENT, JUST TWO WEEKS AFTER HAVING RELEASED THE BUYBACKS SCHEDULE, ANNOUNCED FOR LONG YEAR YIELDS 10 TO 30 YEAR DURATION THEY WILL AT LEAST DOUBLE THAT.
东部时间。在我们与泰勒交谈时,我们刚收到一条红色标题新闻,涉及美国财政部160亿美元20年期国债拍卖。更多发行。考虑到认购情况,其收益率比预售略高,达到5.204%。这紧随财政部的大动作——斯科特·贝森特在发布回购计划仅两周后宣布,对于10至30年期长期国债,回购规模将至少翻倍。
A MOVE TO ADDRESS THAT YIELD HAD BEEN SURGING TOWARD MULTI-DECADE HIGHS. WE GET THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2007 ON THE 30 YEAR YIELD EARLY THIS WEEK. LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT AS WE TURN TO A U.S. RATES STRATEGY JUST FOR BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE. AS WE CONSIDER THE TREASURY'S MOVE TODAY, IS THIS SIMPLY A TECHNICAL ONE OR DOES IT ADDRESS THE FUNDAMENTALS? IRA: IT DOES NOT ADDRESS THE FUNDAMENTALS ONE IOTA. I THINK IT IS JUST AN ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT YIELDS ARE HIGHER THAN WE WANT THEM TO BE AS AN ADMINISTRATION, AND WE ONLY HAVE A FEW TOOLS THAT WE CAN USE PARTICULARLY IN THE SHORT-TERM TO STOP YIELDS FROM MOVING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER.
一项旨在应对收益率飙升至数十年高点的举措。本周早些时候,30年期收益率达到了自2007年以来的最高水平。让我们在转向彭博智库的美国利率策略时讨论这一点。考虑到财政部今天的举措,这仅仅是技术性的,还是触及了基本面?IRA:这丝毫没有触及基本面。我认为这只是承认收益率高于政府希望的水平,而我们只有少数工具,尤其是在短期内,可以阻止收益率大幅上升。
THEY TOOK THEIR SHOT. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS NOT SO MUCH THAT THEY DID IT, BECAUSE WE THOUGHT THERE WAS A POSSIBILITY THIS WOULD HAPPEN, BUT THEY DID NOT DO IT AT THE QUARTERLY REFUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT , THEY DID IT ON A RELATIVELY LIQUID MIDSUMMER DAY. INSTEAD OF A COUPLE WEEKS AGO WAITING TO NOVEMBER. KAILEY: TIMING IS EVERYTHING. ALSO COINCIDING WITH THE DAY IN WHICH THEY WERE AUCTIONING OFF MORE DEBT THAT FALLS INTO THIS DURATION CATEGORY. $16 BILLION OF 20 YEAR BONDS SOLD.
他们出手了。有趣的不在于他们这么做了,因为我们曾认为这有可能发生,而是他们没有在季度再融资公告时这么做,而是在一个相对流动性充足的仲夏日采取了行动,而不是几周前等到11月。KAILEY:时机就是一切。这也恰逢他们拍卖更多属于这一期限类别的债务的日子。售出了160亿美元的20年期债券。
HOW SHOULD WE THINK ABOUT THE TAKEDOWN? IRA: IT WENT OK. WE DO THIS GRADING SYSTEM FROM D TO A+. WE GAVE IT
我们应该如何看待这次发行结果?IRA:结果还行。我们有一个从D到A+的评分系统。我们给了它
更进一步:量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力