AI债券收益率约7%吸金，芯片股遭抛售

[music]

Bloomberg audio studios podcasts radio news.

They say it's the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. Good morning. It's Wednesday, the 19th of August. I'm Stephen Carroll in London. Coming up today, AI bonds suck money from AI stocks as JP Morgan warns that artificial intelligence risk is spreading across asset classes. Why record hot seas could feel more intense storms across Europe later this year. Plus with a 150% bond rally, Ukraine shows traders it can beat the odds.

Let's start with a round up of our top stories. Global AI chip stocks are falling today as higher bond yields help push investors away from one of this year's hottest trades. The multi-trillion dollar AI build-out is now also making bonds more attractive than the sector's own stocks. Artificial intelligence related debt is now yielding around 7% and with returns beating many stock indexes this year, investors are questioning whether equities are worth the extra risk.

JP Morgan Asset Management's chief market strategist for the Americas, Gabriela Santos, says this also means AI concentration risk is spreading from stocks into bonds.

You can't just think about traditional factors or sectors or regions or even asset classes because that AI tentacle is absolutely everywhere now and that's only going to get worse. And so really important to stress test portfolios for an AI factor.

Santos believes the AI build-out would will involve around five and a half trillion dollars of capital spending across public and private markets in the coming years. Goldman Sachs estimates AI related borrowers now account for around 18% of US investment grade issuance this year up from 1% two years ago. The Trump administration has agreed to delay the imposition of a 50% tariff on billions of dollars of Canadian goods for three days.

In a social media post just hours before the deadline, President Trump announced Canada had agreed a deal with the US. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney wasn't as definitive, stopping short of saying an agreement had been reached. But Bloomberg's senior US government editor Derek Wallbank says the announcement signals progress in the tense relationship.

This is a very positive sign that we're going toward a deal, and there had been a lot of worries in Ottawa and elsewhere in Canada that this was going to be a major problem coming now. Last-ditch diplomacy pauses in in effect.

Jack Wallbank there. The Canadian dollar jumped on the announcement as it ran 0.1% higher against the greenback. Voters in Switzerland look set to reject a push to strengthen the country's long-standing neutrality. The proposal has also drawn unusual intervention from Russia. Bloomberg's Eoin Potts has the story.

A new poll suggests that 62% of Swiss voters are likely to reject the proposal for stricter neutrality in next month's referendum. The initiative would prevent Switzerland from imposing sanctions unless they're approved by the United Nations and enshrine permanent neutrality in the constitution. The campaign was sparked by Switzerland's decision to adopt EU sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine. Moscow has urged voters to back the proposal, prompting criticism after a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson invoked Switzerland's actions during World War II.

In London, I'm Eoin Potts, Bloomberg Radio.

Europe's heat waves are now threatening to cause intense storms later this year. Research from World Weather Attribution finds the Mediterranean Sea is heating up twice as fast as the average ocean globally, with surface temperatures in June more than 6° C hotter than normal in some places. Climate scientists say the record-high sea temperatures will give more energy to storms. A high-ranking FIFA Council member has pulled his support for Gianni Infantino after the dismissal of fellow executive Kevin Lamour.

Vice Shondor Ciani, referred to the firing as the last straw in a letter to the head of FIFA seen by Bloomberg. He also criticized Infantino's now abandoned controversial World Cup investment plans. Premier League CEO Richard Masters says the proposal was a mistake.

We obviously support the FA's position on Ciani, which is withdraw their support for him. And I think that's the right decision. We support it.

So, you believe there should be a new FIFA president?

Yeah, I do. And the world football needs a strong FIFA making good, strong decisions. And I think this was a significant own goal.

Premier League's Richard Masters speaking there. Ciani's decision comes after Kevin Lamour was fired from his role as FIFA's Chief Operating Officer on Monday, weeks after criticizing the investment plans. The next FIFA presidential election is in March, and Infantino plans to run for a third 4-year term, the last he could serve. And those are some of our top stories on the program. On the markets, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down by 2/10, excuse me, 2.1% this morning.

The Kospi is down 5.3% lower. Euro Stoxx 50 futures down by a 10th of 1%. Uh treasury yields are a little lower after hitting those peaks, those multi-decade highs we've been talking about. 30-year yield this morning is down a basis point at 5.27%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index a 10th of 1% weaker. In a moment, we'll bring you more on today's market turmoil and the sell-off in chip stocks, plus how investing in Ukraine has become one of the best trades in the bond markets.

But another story that we've been reading this morning on time travel via the medium of LinkedIn. Bloomberg Opinion's Beth Kowitt has been writing about a trend of people going back and editing details about jobs that they had years ago. This was discovered by economists who are using the platform to mine data about the labor markets, and they found that between 2020 and 2026, nearly a fifth of US LinkedIn users went back and edited descriptions or or of jobs they'd left years previously.

Of course, people polishing their CVs isn't new, but Beth says it's also now altering what's become a public record of the labor market and of skills at a point in time. So, for example, people were adding terms like LLM or AI to their job descriptions going back to 2022, and that means that if economists were using that data, they would be overstating the prevalence of AI skills in that period by about 30%. Now, there could be an advantage here.

Workers are making efforts to try and compete better in the present. That makes this kind of time travel a potentially valuable indicator of where the economy is heading. But, it's also then worth pointing out that there's been a slowdown in these AI-related additions. The researchers told Beth that he and his co-authors write this as a potential peaking of the AI frenzy. But, all of this AI help in job applications usually to get past AI-driven recruitment filters, which should say means it's actually getting harder for employers to find the right workers for the roles as well.

Really interesting read these from Beth Kowitt. We'll put a link to it in our podcast show notes. Well, let's bring you more now on today's sell-off in chip stocks as investors retreat from one of the year's hottest trades. Our markets reporter Anthony Stevens joins us for more on that story. Anthony, what's driving today's moves lower then in chip stocks?

We finally have a bit of a transmission mechanism between higher rates and lower chip stock prices, right? The the chip trade has been navigating higher rates, the Iran war, kind of well, you know, we are almost at the highs again after the July sell-off. Uh so, what has happened now is that they are contending with this wave of issuance within the AI trade, right? Whether it's AI debt or AI bank loans, and also potentially the huge IPOs coming from Anthropic and OpenAI.

We got a little bit more comfort that those IPOs were coming due to the big numbers on ARR that they that they registered, but that's pressuring existing holdings of listed stocks, right? Ther