富达：比特币波动率创历史新低，或迎重大行情
Bitcoin’s Volatility May Be Down But Expect a ‘Meaningful Move’ Soon, Says Fidelity
Bitcoin Magazine
比特币杂志
Bitcoin’s Volatility May Be Down But Expect a ‘Meaningful Move’ Soon, Says Fidelity
富达称比特币波动性可能下降，但预计很快会有‘重大变动’
Bitcoin has been sitting still recently, and the coin’s volatility is now lower than 98.5% of all days in its 17-year history, according to asset manager Fidelity.
资产管理公司富达表示，比特币近期一直保持平稳，其波动性目前低于其17年历史中98.5%的日子。
Writing on X, the firm’s digital asset arm said that spot trading volume was also at its lowest level since 2019.
该公司数字资产部门在X平台上发文称，现货交易量也降至2019年以来的最低水平。
Bitcoin’s price is virtually unmoved over a 30-day period, with some analysts saying the bottom is likely in. The coin was recently trading for $65,329, nearly 50% lower than the all-time high it notched in October 2025.
比特币价格在30天内几乎未动，一些分析师认为底部可能已经出现。该币种最近交易价为65,329美元，比2025年10月创下的历史高点低了近50%。
Update: BTC volatility is now lower than ~98.5% of all days in its history.
更新：BTC波动性现在低于其历史约98.5%的日子。
Meanwhile, spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019.
与此同时，现货交易量已降至2019年以来的最低水平。
Think of it like a coiled spring: The longer volatility remains compressed, the greater the potential for a meaningful move… https://t.co/8ZXosxXFd5
可以把它想象成一根压缩的弹簧：波动性被压缩的时间越长，出现重大变动的可能性就越大…… https://t.co/8ZXosxXFd5
— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) August 19, 2026
— 富达数字资产（@DigitalAssets）2026年8月19日
“Think of it like a coiled spring: The longer volatility remains compressed, the greater the potential for a meaningful move once it breaks,” Fidelity Digital Assets wrote.
“可以把它想象成一根压缩的弹簧：波动性被压缩的时间越长，一旦突破，出现重大变动的可能性就越大，”富达数字资产写道。
The asset manager pointed to a post from earlier this month, where it noted that while volatility was down, such “periods of compression don’t tend to last forever.”
该资产管理公司引用了本月早些时候的一篇帖子，其中指出尽管波动性下降，但此类“压缩期往往不会永远持续。”
Investment manager VanEck on Tuesday said that bitcoin’s thirty-day realized volatility had fallen to 27.2% annualized, down from 30.4% the prior month and less than half bitcoin’s long-run average of roughly 80%.
投资管理公司VanEck周二表示，比特币的30天实际波动率已降至年化27.2%，低于上月的30.4%，且不到比特币长期平均水平约80%的一半。
It added that based on the length of prior cycles, the firm sees a bottom potentially forming anywhere between September and November of this year.
该公司补充说，根据以往周期的长度，该公司认为底部可能在今年9月至11月之间形成。
Bitcoin’s wild price swings have dampened — and 2025 was the least volatile year for Bitcoin, according to a K33 Research report from December.
比特币剧烈的价格波动已经减弱——根据K33 Research去年12月的报告，2025年是比特币波动性最小的一年。
The firm predicted that 2026 would see the biggest and oldest digital asset beat both gold and equities in terms of gains.
该公司预测，2026年这一最大、最古老的数字资产将在涨幅上超过黄金和股票。
Following the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in 2024, bitcoin has become available to a whole new class of investors.
随着2024年现货比特币交易所交易基金的批准，比特币已向全新类别的投资者开放。
Now, more cautious retail investors — previously put off by cold storage — can buy the asset via brokerage accounts.
现在，此前因冷存储而望而却步的更谨慎的散户投资者可以通过经纪账户购买该资产。
Institutional investors like sovereign wealth funds and banks are also able to buy bitcoin exposure via the ETFs.
主权财富基金和银行等机构投资者也可以通过ETF购买比特币敞口。
As bitcoin’s market cap has grown, the asset’s volatility has come down significantly, and now experienced less wild price swings than in the past.
随着比特币市值的增长，该资产的波动性已显著下降，现在经历的剧烈价格波动比过去要少。
So far, bitcoin’s bear market is the shallowest it’s had in its 16-year history.
到目前为止，比特币的熊市是其16年历史上最浅的一次。
This post Bitcoin’s Volatility May Be Down But Expect a ‘Meaningful Move’ Soon, Says Fidelity first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo.
这篇文章《比特币波动性可能下降，但富达预计不久将出现“重大走势”》最初发表于《比特币杂志》，作者为马修·迪萨尔沃。
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