Gary Marcus：OpenAI 的瓦解已经开始，信任崩塌与亏损加剧

The opening stages of OpenAI’s unraveling, which I first warned about in January 2024 (if not before), have begun.

To begin with, hardly anyone trusts them anymore, which can’t be great for business.

Take the reaction to OpenAIs Sam Altman’s latest announcement, on Tuesday August 18 (i.e., “earlier today” for those of us on the West Coast), that OpenAI would be pausing, ostensibly for safety reasoning:

As far as I can tell, hardly anyone believed him.

The best one line translation came from the user @NIK on X:

Slightly elaborated:

And, here’s where things get worse. It turns out people were very likely right to be skeptical, because The Wall Street Journal’s Berber Jin and Corrie Dribusch just dropped big news:

and then an hour and half later, Jin dropped still further details, also bad for OpenAI:

You don’t want your quarterly losses to quadruple right before your IPO.

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It’s safe to say all this is good news for Anthropic:

And terrible news for OpenAI.

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Small wonder Nvidia was trying to cover its bets earlier this week:

Still, as Ed Zitron and I have both long noted, if OpenAI goes down the damage could spread:

In short, things could well get wild, very soon.

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