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全球债市抛售加剧,特朗普对伊朗强硬,美股期货走低

Bond Selloff Weakens Risk Appetite; Trump Takes Hard Line on Iran | Bloomberg Brief 08/18/2026

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全球债市抛售、地缘冲突升级,宏观交易者需关注收益率曲线陡峭化与油价风险,留意10年期美债5%关口。

VONNIE: 5:00 IN NEW YORK CITY, 10:00 IN LONDON. LET'S GET YOU SET UP FOR THE DAY. CONCERNS AROUND DEFICIT FOR AI. FUELING A GLOBAL BOND ROUT. RISK OFF INEQUITIES. OIL PUSHING HIGHER AS PROSPECTS IS DIM FOR A U.S. PLAN AS ANOTHER VESSEL IS ATTACKED IN THE STREET. META HEADED TO COURT AS THE SOCIAL MEDIA DICTION TRIAL BEGINS WITH POTENTIAL PENALTIES ON -- OF $1.4 TRILLION. CHECK ON MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD. WINNIE HSU WITH THE LATEST IN ASIA.

沃尼:纽约时间凌晨5点,伦敦时间上午10点。让我们为你开启新的一天。围绕AI赤字的担忧,引发全球债券抛售潮。股市避险情绪升温。由于又一艘船只在海峡遇袭,美国计划前景黯淡,油价走高。Meta面临法庭诉讼,社交媒体反垄断审判开始,潜在罚款高达1.4万亿美元。关注全球市场动态。徐温妮带来亚洲最新消息。

W ALL ABOUTINNIE: -- WINNIE: ALL ABOUT BONDS IN ASIA TODAY. THAT IS REALLY SHOWING UP IN THE ASIA SESSION TODAY WE HAVE THESE LOCAL CONCERNS AS WELL AS EXPECTATIONS FOR THE BANK OF JAPAN TO RAISE RATES GIVEN THE WEAKNESS IN THE YEN. THE BRIGHT SPOT IS IN THE -- WE SAW YIELDS FALLING A LITTLE BIT AFTER THOSE STRONG AUCTIONS SHOWING DEMANDS OF THE HIGHEST SINCE JUNE OF LAST YEAR DRIVEN BY THIS HIGH YIELDS SHOWING UP WITH SOME ATTRACTIVENESS FOR INVESTORS AS WELL.

温妮:今天亚洲市场焦点全在债券上。这确实在今天的亚洲交易时段显现出来,我们既有本地担忧,也有对日本央行因日元疲软而加息的预期。亮点在于——我们看到收益率在强劲拍卖后略有下降,显示出自去年6月以来的最高需求,这得益于高收益率对投资者展现出的吸引力。

SEEING HOW THAT'S AFFECTING THE BROADER ASIA MARKET. ESPECIALLY TO THE TECH STOCKS GIVEN THE HIGH VALUATION. YOU ARE SEEING JAPAN'S NIKKEI LEADING LOSSES AND ALSO DRAGGING THE BROADER ASIA INDEX DOWN ABOUT 1% AFTER FOUR DAYS OF GAINS. OVERALL WE ARE SEEING SOME WEAKNESS FROM THE JAPANESE YEN INCHING CLOSER AGAINST THE DOLLAR BY THE STRENGTH IN THE OIL PRICES AS WELL. VONNIE: THANK YOU FOR THAT. WE GET TO LONDON FOR A LOOK AT THE EUROPEAN SESSION WITH JUSTINA LEE.

看看这对更广泛的亚洲市场有何影响,尤其是估值较高的科技股。日本日经指数领跌,也拖累更广泛的亚洲指数在连续四天上涨后下跌约1%。总体来看,我们看到日元兑美元因油价走强而逐渐逼近弱势。沃尼:谢谢你的报道。我们连线伦敦的贾斯汀娜·李,了解欧洲交易时段情况。

JUSTINA: IT IS ALSO ALL ABOUT BONDS HERE WITH THE STOCKS EURO 600. 0.5% IN THE FIFTH STRAIGHT DAILY LOSS. LED BY A LOT OF THOSE TECH SHARES. BAD NEWS FOR THOSE KINDS OF SECTORS TO COUNT ON LONG-TERM CASH FLOWS. LOOKING AT THE BOND MARKET WE CAN SEE A RISE IN BOND YIELDS FOR THE U.K. 30 YEAR YIELD. IF WE FLIP THE BOARD THERE'S A FOCUS ON GERMAN BOND YIELDS TODAY BECAUSE THEY ARE SELLING THESE LONG AND 30 YEAR BONDS AND IT HAS RISEN TO A 15 YEAR HIGH.

贾斯汀娜:这里也是债券主导市场,斯托克欧洲600指数下跌0.5%,连续第五个交易日下跌,主要由许多科技股领跌。这对依赖长期现金流的行业来说是个坏消息。看债券市场,我们可以看到英国30年期国债收益率上升。如果翻看行情板,今天焦点在德国国债收益率上,因为他们正在出售这些长期和30年期债券,收益率已升至15年高点。

REFLECTING SOME BROADER GLOBAL TRENDS HERE. WE ALSO SEE THEM TALK MORE ABOUT DEFENSE INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING AND THAT IS ALSO FUELING THAT A IN YIELDS. VONNIE: ALL ABOUT BOND YIELDS HERE IN THE U.S. AS WELL. WE HIT ABOUT 2007. TODAY WE ARE AT 530 TO 10 ON THE 30 YEAR YIELD SPREAD SEEN YIELDS MOVE HIGHER BUT MUCH MORE SO ON THE LONG END. WE ARE SEEING SOME STEEPENING. WE ARE REALLY MORE SEEING THIS AT THE BACK END. WE WILL BE SPEAKING ABOUT THE COMMENTS ON BOND VIGILANTES.

这反映了更广泛的全球趋势。我们还看到他们更多谈论国防基础设施支出,这也推高了收益率。沃尼:美国这边也是债券收益率主导。我们触及2007年水平。今天30年期收益率利差在530至10个基点之间,收益率走高,但长端涨幅更大。我们看到曲线陡峭化。我们更多看到的是后端的变化。接下来我们将讨论关于债券义警的评论。

PERHAPS PUSHING THE PANIC BUTTON AT SOME POINT. BUT LET'S LOOK AT EQUITIES. ED HAD A COMMENT ABOUT EQUITIES WITH A MODEL ALAN GREENSPAN USED TO SEE WHETHER THE S&P 500 WAS OVER OR UNDERVALUED RELATIVE TO BOND YIELDS WAY BACK WHEN. HE FOUND WHEN HE PUT IT TO WORK IT SHOWS THE S&P IS NOT OVERVALUED WHEN IT COMES TO BOND YIELDS. THAT WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL WE HAD 5% ON THE 10 YEAR. WE CAN REST EASY SEEING THESE RECORDS. FUTURES ARE POINTED LOWER.

也许在某个时候会按下恐慌按钮。但让我们看看股票。艾德曾用艾伦·格林斯潘的一个模型来评论股票,该模型用于判断标普500指数相对于债券收益率是否被高估或低估,那是很久以前的事了。他发现,当他应用这个模型时,结果显示标普500在债券收益率方面并未被高估。除非10年期收益率达到5%,否则这种情况不会发生。看到这些纪录,我们可以放心了。期货则指向下跌。

RISK OFF SENTIMENT IS NOT HELPING. ALSO TURMOIL POTENTIALLY IN WAITING THERE. BUT ALSO SOME GREAT DAYS. THE RUSSELL 2000 HIT A RECORD AND IS HAVE A NICE STREAK. OF COURSE THERE IS OIL TO THINK ABOUT. WE ARE HIGHER ONCE AGAIN ON OIL. BRENT CRUDE OFF THE HIGHS OF THE SESSION. NEW YORK ACCRUED JUST BELOW 85. GOLD AS WELL 11 STRAIGHT SESSIONS WHERE WE ARE HIGHER. OFF JUST A LITTLE BIT BUT PUSHING THAT $4400 MARK. THIS TUESDAY MORNING WE GO WITH CHLOE MELEY.

避险情绪并未带来帮助。此外,那里可能还潜藏着动荡。但也有一些很棒的日子。罗素2000指数创下纪录,并且正处于一段不错的连涨期。当然,还有石油需要考虑。油价再次走高。布伦特原油从盘中高点回落。纽约原油价格略低于85美元。黄金也是如此,连续11个交易日上涨。虽然略有回落,但正逼近4400美元大关。这个周二早上,我们与克洛伊·梅利一起开始。

CHLOE: AI RELATED STOCKS ARE DOWN THIS MORNING GIVING UP THE GAINS FROM THE RALLY YESTERDAY. WE HAVE THIS RISK OFF SENTIMENT SETTING IN DRAGGING DOWN THE LIKES OF NVIDIA INTEL AND BROADCOM AND WEIGHING ON U.S. FUTURES AS WELL. WE ARE ALSO READ -- DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE REPORTED RESULTS WITH AYOTTE -- WITH DISAPPOINTING SALES. THIS UNDERWHELMING PERFORMANCE IN THAT KEY DIVISION IS SOMETHING INVESTORS ARE FOCUSED ON.

克洛伊:与人工智能相关的股票今早下跌,回吐了昨日反弹的涨幅。避险情绪正在蔓延,拖累了英伟达、英特尔和博通等公司,同时也对美国期货构成压力。此外,在公布业绩后,艾奥特公司股价大幅下跌——由于销售业绩令人失望。投资者正关注该关键部门的疲弱表现。

DOWN MORE THAN 9% THIS MORNING OFF THE BACK ABOUT EARNINGS SPRINT. HM PLACED ON EIGHT POSITIVE CATALYST WITH THE ANALYST SAYING THEY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF RESILIENCE IN THE THIRD QUARTER RESULTS LATER IN SEPTEMBER. WE ARE UP ABOUT THREE OR 4% ON THE BACK OF THAT UPGRADE. VONNIE: THANK YOU SO MUCH. CHLOE WILL BE BACK LATER IN THE HOUR. MORE ON THIS BOND SELLOFF WITH KATRINA DUDLEY A FRANKLIN TEMPLETON PURDON LONG DATED BOND YIELDS PUSHING FURTHER AS SOVEREIGN BOND RATES RISE AROUND THE WORLD.

今早因财报而下跌超过9%。H M被列为八个积极催化剂之一,分析师表示,他们在9月下旬公布的第三季度业绩中表现出相当的韧性。受该上调评级影响,我们上涨了约3%或4%。沃尼:非常感谢。克洛伊稍后将在本小时内再次回来。更多关于债券抛售的报道,请听富兰克林坦伯顿的卡特里娜·达德利,随着全球主权债券利率上升,长期债券收益率进一步走高。

U.S. 30 YEAR YIELD UP THE HIGHEST SINCE 2000 SEVEN. JOINING US IS VEN RAM. I MENTIONED NOTES SAYING HE'S NOT PUSHING THE PANIC BUTTON BUT WATCHING IF THE BOND VIGILANTES WILL AT SOME POINT MAYBE WHEN THE 10 YEAR YIELD GETS TO 5%. WHAT WOULD THAT LOOK LIKE, WILL THAT BE SOME TYPE OF TURBULENCE? VEN: I THINK IT WILL MEAN HIGHER VOLATILITY AND I THINK IF YOU LOOK AT THE MEASURES, THE VOLATILITY MEASURES ARE STILL RATHER MUTED.

美国30年期收益率升至2007年以来的最高水平。我们邀请到了文·拉姆。我提到过,他称自己不会按下恐慌按钮,但会关注债券义警是否会在某个时候——也许当10年期收益率达到5%时——采取行动。那会是什么样子,会是某种动荡吗?文:我认为那将意味着更高的波动性,而且如果你看看各项指标,波动性指标目前仍然相当温和。

IF THAT HAPPENS WITH HIM SAYING HAPPENS, BUT I THINK THERE IS ASSISTANT -- BUT I THINK THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. YOUR HYPERSCALERS ISSUING 1.5 TRILLION WORTH OF DEBT SO FAR THIS YEAR ALONE. FOR THE BIGGEST FUNDRAISING SINCE 2020. I THINK WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS THE COMBINATION OF HYPERSCALERS THEN WE'VE GOT THE FISCAL CONCERNS WHICH HAVE BEEN LINGERING IN THE MARKETS FOR YEARS AND THEN WE HAVE ALSO HAVE INFLATION TRENDING FOR FIVE YEARS NOW ABOVE 2%.

如果那发生在他所说的那种情况下,但我认为有助手——但我认为有一种明显的可能性。你们的超大规模企业仅今年迄今就发行了1.5万亿美元的债务,这是自2020年以来最大的融资规模。我认为我们正在看到的是超大规模企业的结合,然后是市场上多年来一直挥之不去的财政担忧,还有现在持续五年高于2%的通胀趋势。

SO YOU'VE GOT A PERFECT STORM THAT IS INDUCING ALL OF THIS IN THE BOND MARKET. WE ARE IN A SITUATION WHERE THE STRUCTURAL INTEREST RATES ARE MOVING HIGHER A MESS THE MOST IMPORTANT TAKE AWAY HERE BECAUSE A FEW YEARS AGO WE WERE IN THIS 0% INFLATION AND INTEREST REGIME. NOW WE HAVE MOVED TO A 5% INTEREST RATE REGIME. THAT IS HUGE IN THE SPACE OF A FEW YEARS AND SHOWS DEMAND FOR FUNDS IS HIGHER AND THAT IS AFFECTING THE EQUILIBRIUM RATE FOR NEUTRAL RATE OF FUNDS.

所以你们有一个完美风暴,正在债券市场引发这一切。我们处于结构性利率上升的境地,这是这里最重要的启示,因为几年前我们处于0%的通胀和利率体制。现在我们已转向5%的利率体制。这在几年内是巨大的变化,表明资金需求更高,这正在影响资金的均衡利率或中性利率。

VONNIE: WHAT CAN AUTHORITIES DO FOR THE LONG END SHORT OF ENGINEERING SOME KIND OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN. VEN: WHAT THEY CAN DO IS THE POWER TO BRING DOWN INFLATION. WE HAVE SEEN THIS ENVIRONMENT WHERE IF YOU LOOK AT THE U.K., INFLATION IS NOT UNDER CONTROL. IF YOU LOOK AT THE U.S.. 2% INFLATION FIVE YEARS NOW AND IN JAPAN AS WELL TRYING TO COME TO GRIPS WITH INFLATION. SO YOU'VE GOT THIS SITUATION WHERE INFLATION IS NOT FULLY CONTAINED AND AUTHORITIES COULD BRING THAT DOWN TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE MARKETS BUT WHEN THEY SAY 2% INFLATION THEY MEAN 2% INFLATION.

冯妮:除了制造某种经济放缓之外,当局能为长期端做些什么?文:他们能做的是有能力降低通胀。我们已经看到这种环境,如果你看英国,通胀并未得到控制。如果你看美国,2%的通胀已经持续五年,日本也在努力应对通胀。所以你们有这种情况,通胀并未完全遏制,当局可以降低通胀以激发市场信心,但当他们说2%通胀时,他们指的是2%通胀。

VONNIE: THERE'S A LOT OF ISSUING AT THE SHORT END. WE HAD NICE DEMAND IN JAPAN FOR JGB SPRING HYPOTHETICALLY WHAT IS THE PROBLEM WITH ISSUING MORE THE SHORT END IF THAT'S WHAT THE TREASURY HAS TO DO? VEN: IF YOU'RE GOING TO ISSUE COUPONS TAKE IT OUT BY HIGHER YIELDS SUBSEQUENTLY IT IMPOSES LOSSES ON BONDHOLDERS WHICH IS WHY THERE IS A COST TO ALL OF THIS WHY INVESTORS HAVE BEEN EVEN THOUGH JAPAN'S ISSUANCE WAS WELL RECEIVED I THINK THE SECOND REPORT MARKET IS A JUDGE OF WHAT HAPPENS IN THE BOND MARKETS AND THEY ARE THE YIELDS ARE MARCHING HIGHER.

冯妮:短期端有很多发行。我们在日本对日本国债春季发行有很好的需求。假设,如果财政部必须这样做,在短期端发行更多有什么问题?文:如果你要发行息票,随后通过更高的收益率将其收回,这会对债券持有人造成损失,这就是为什么这一切都有成本,为什么投资者即使日本的发行受到良好接受,我认为二级市场是债券市场发生情况的评判者,而收益率正在走高。

BONDHOLDERS WILL FACE LOSSES IF THEY ARE BUYING INTO A HIGHER RATE ENVIRONMENT. VONNIE: WONDERFUL STUFF ON THE BLOOMBERG AS WELL. BLOOMBERG'S VEN RAM. OIL GAINING FOR A THIRD DAY WITH NO RESOLUTION -- WITH THE RESOLUTION OF THE IRAN WAR LOOKING CLOUDY. THE PRESIDENT SAYING HE'S NOT INTERESTED IN EXTENDING THE AGREEMENT WITH IRAN AFTER EXPIRING YESTERDAY. IT TO IRAN SAYING THE COMMENT ABOUT BACK CHANNELS BEING ILLUSIONARY.

如果债券持有人买入更高利率环境,他们将面临损失。冯妮:彭博社也有精彩内容。彭博社的文·拉姆。油价连续第三天上涨,伊朗战争没有解决方案——解决方案看起来不明朗。总统表示他对在昨天到期后延长与伊朗的协议不感兴趣。伊朗则表示关于秘密渠道的评论是虚幻的。

NOT ONLY THAT BUT WE HAVE ANOTHER ATTACK IN THE STRAIGHT. ABEER: IN THE EARLY HOURS WE SAW A REPORT BY THE U.K. NAVY SAYING AN UNIDENTIFIED PROJECT AL HAD HIT A VESSEL IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. ONE CASUALTY REPORTED. OUR ENERGY TEAM REPORTING A FUEL TANKER WAS MAKING AN ERRATIC MOVES BEFORE -- NEXT TO AN ISLAND IN IRAN WHICH MEANS TRYING TO REALLY ASSERT THAT DOMINANCE IT'S BEEN TOUTING OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXPIRING DATA ON THAT CEASEFIRE WITH THAT MOU, THAT HAS BEEN RENDERED MEANINGLESS ACCORDING TO A IRANIAN OFFICIALS.

不仅如此,直道上还有另一次袭击。阿比尔:凌晨时分,我们看到英国海军的报告称,一个不明飞行物在霍尔木兹海峡击中了一艘船只。据报道有一人伤亡。我们的能源团队报告称,一艘燃料油轮在伊朗附近的一个岛屿旁做出异常动作——这意味着试图真正展现其一直在吹嘘的对霍尔木兹海峡的控制力。关于停火协议及谅解备忘录到期的问题,据伊朗官员称,该协议已变得毫无意义。

SAYING THAT IS DUE TO MULTIPLE VIOLATIONS THAT HAPPENED -- COMMITTED BY THE UNITED STATES. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID HE DOES NOT WANT TO EXTEND THAT SO WE ARE LEFT IN A STATE OF LIMBO WHEN IT COMES TO WIDER TALKS. IRANIAN AND AMERICAN OFFICIALS ARE REPORTEDLY NOT TALKING BUT THE TALKS THAT ARE ONGOING ACCORDING TO MULTIPLE REPORTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS ARE THOSE BETWEEN IRAN AND OMAN TO FIND

他们说这是因为美国犯下了多次违规行为。特朗普总统表示他不想延长该协议,因此我们在更广泛的谈判方面陷入了僵局。据报道,伊朗和美国官员并未进行对话,但根据过去几周的多份报道,正在进行的谈判是伊朗与阿曼之间的谈判,旨在寻找

原文超出正文长度上限,此处截断——上游还有内容,完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。

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