美伊霍尔木兹局势：停火协议到期后现状分析
What’s Next for US-Iran in Hormuz With Expired MOU?
The MOU has expired. We said it repeatedly. There was very little understanding over the last 60 days or so, and certainly no evidence, very little evidence of an actual cease fire. Colonel, I often ask you this question, and I think it's where we should start again this morning. How would you characterize the current situation in that region? Yeah, I don't really think a whole lot has changed. I mean, even if you went all the way back to April 13th, April 14th timeframe, when the cease fire originally was starting, was that was really the change from epic Fury to what we're in now?
谅解备忘录已过期。我们反复说过这一点。在过去大约60天里，几乎没有理解，当然也没有证据，几乎没有实际停火的证据。上校，我经常问你这个问题，我想这也是我们今天早上应该重新开始的地方。你如何描述该地区当前的局势？是的，我认为实际上没有太大变化。我的意思是，即使你追溯到4月13日、4月14日左右，当时停火刚开始，那才是从‘史诗之怒’到我们现在所处状态的真正转变。
And you're still looking at the same kind of thing. It's it's a lot of talk. We do have capability. We continue to provide at least some level of pressure. Uh, but trying to get back into a full blown conflict at this point in time, I think the Trump administration realizes it's not going there. It's not going to reach the level that you're trying to reach. You're not going to get the end state to get Iran to capitulate based off of that level of force.
你仍然看到同样的情况。这有很多空谈。我们确实有能力。我们继续施加至少一定程度的压力。但是，试图在此时重新陷入全面冲突，我认为特朗普政府意识到不会走到那一步。不会达到你试图达到的水平。你不会通过那种程度的武力让伊朗屈服。
Colonel, if the Wall Street Journal reporting is accurate and an Iran has been rebuilding and preparing for another big fight with the United States, is the United States prepared? Yeah. You know, I think it's interesting when you look at that, Iran is going to do it. It's going to try and do right. But a lot of the military industrial base, the defense industrial base for Iran has been severely, uh, degraded. And that is that is something that that that Fifth Fleet, U.S., Centcom and, uh, in Secretary Heck, states of all talked about.
上校，如果《华尔街日报》的报道准确，而且伊朗一直在重建并准备与美国再次大打出手，美国准备好了吗？是的。你知道，我觉得有趣的是，当你看到这一点，伊朗会这么做。它会试图做对。但是伊朗的很多军工基础、国防工业基础已经严重退化。这是美国第五舰队、中央司令部以及赫克部长都谈过的事情。
So from that perspective, it's not as easy as just standing it back up. Now, it is easier to build a shaheed 136 drone than it is to try and build, uh, Pac three interceptor, uh, because obviously they're cheaper components and uh, and you can get those out faster. But, you know, the U.S. ends up in a, in a weird place right now, especially when you're looking, uh, in the Strait of Hormuz because you're still fighting a brown water navy problem with a blue water navy force.
所以从这个角度看，重新站起来并不容易。现在，制造一架‘沙希德-136’无人机比试图制造‘爱国者-3’拦截弹更容易，因为显然它们的部件更便宜，而且可以更快地生产出来。但是，你知道，美国现在处于一个尴尬的境地，尤其是在霍尔木兹海峡，因为你仍然在用蓝水海军力量对付棕水海军问题。
And I think it's one of the biggest things that, you know, when President Trump said that he controls the strait, there's a big difference between being able to dominate the strait and being able to control it. And I think I ran his proven that just even backed by the UN unknown projectile that you mentioned a minute ago.
我认为这是最重要的事情之一，你知道，当特朗普总统说他控制着海峡时，能够主导海峡和控制海峡之间有很大区别。我认为，即使只是你刚才提到的联合国未知投射物，也证明了这一点。
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