债券抛售引发避险，美伊和平前景黯淡，Anthropic年化收入或达650亿美元

It's Tuesday the 18th. Good morning folks. What do you need to know this Tuesday morning? Well, the cost of money continues to rise pretty much everywhere. Brent crude slowly pushing higher and higher as an Iran peace deal looks further and further away. Diesel. Diesel is becoming the real problem, and anthropic annualized revenue is on track to rise sevenfold to $65 billion. Tom. European futures pointing live by 5/10 of a percent risk off this morning after closing flat yesterday.

Here's the cost of money then. That guy was referencing the 30 year in the US yields at the highest level there for the first time since 2007. 532 right now. So yields are up and you're seeing selling across bonds globally. Oil is part of that. It's part of that story. It's certainly not the whole story. Brent is currently above $91 a barrel, up 6/10 of a percent in the session today. The countdown to the acting trade starts right now.

Good morning. How are you doing? Um, there's a lot going on this morning. Actually, we haven't been able to say that for the last few weeks, but I think this morning we probably can. And we've got a lot to get through over the next couple of hours. Let's start off with the cost of money. The price of money and where it is right now. Uh, and what we are seeing. The US study is at a 2007 high, but over the last week. Let me just give you some numbers.

Yeah. The US 30 is up a Lop 8.4 basis points. Germany's up by 9.1. Italy's up by ten. France is up by 11.3. The UK is up by 11.1. So this isn't just a US phenomenon. It is around the world. Take a look at Japan. We're up by 17.4 basis points. So let's just kind of put put the US problem uh into a little bit of perspective. How long before the US ten year gets to 5%? That's an MLive question that is being asked at the moment.

I think with good reason to Scott Benson. It's got business in the business of bringing bond yields down and protecting the stock market. I think that's going to be an interesting question that we're going to have to grapple with going forward from here. Jackson Hole is next week. There's a lot of things going on right now. The cost of money continues to climb. Yeah, I mean, I think the question really also with the Scott Benson relationship is what can he actually do?

We've seen that shift in issuance. You're increasingly getting to a level where you go and that's quite concerning that it's over 20%. How much more do you want to go if you have a hiking cycle that's coming in, that means your debt is going to rise even more and you can't stop the fact there's so much I issuance. Demand for capital inflation is even more volatile than it's been previously. And you have all these supply issues.

You do need research putting out notes. And we're not we're not pushing the panic button yet. I quote we aren't pushing the panic button yet. However, we are closely monitoring whether the bond vigilantes might do so. So of course, the team or at the person who coined the phrase bond vigilantes. And that is now back as part of the mix. At what point do these yields become attractive is one question I have. The other question I have is, is the sell off doing the work of the fed to some extent?

As you look at the long end, selling off of yields up, and what that does to mortgage costs is that is that tightening conditions and in fact, actually keeping the fed on pause does not do the work of the fed to shut down. So unpleasant talks about that. I'm sorry. No, Ben Walsh talks about that at the last meeting. But then everybody else went, yeah, but it's your job. You're meant to be doing this. And that signal basically says, you're behind the curve, buddy.

Get on with it. That's the message that comes out of that narrative, isn't it? And is the risk for higher yields, regardless of what the fed does is in the hike. And that pushes up your borrowing costs because we're doing those cyclical deficits right now in terms of expansion. Or does it mean that you worry about inflation putting credibility. So you're long on rises. Anyway. Let's talk about what's happening with crude you crude yourself.

Actually, I think crude is right. Brent is just going kind of little by little, higher and higher and higher. The prospect of a deal is getting further off. By the way, Diesel's what I'm worried about. Well, that's what's really interesting is that kind of slow grind up seems like it's continuing and that it won't go away. And today the markers that you're over $90 a barrel on Brent. But it seems like you've just had escalation.

Right. So Trump has said that they're not going back to the memorandum of understanding. Iran seems to have pretty similar messaging. Um, and you're having more threats in terms of the US saying that they'll bond a man and that price in oil or crude isn't particularly concerning, but it is in other products like your refined products or gas. This is this is where Guy Johnson conversations, daily conversations with farmers in his vicinity is the leading indicator.

Because you've been talking about diesel and you've been talking about the fact that diesel and we have a chart that shows the spread now in terms of diesel over Brent, that's the correct spread to the over 100. Okay. Normally it's at 25. That's kind of it's circa 25. So we are way beyond where we normally are. So it's the product market you increasingly want to pay you happy should have been for ages. Probably paying attention to this is where the issue lies.

Because the world doesn't run on bright crude. The world runs on diesel and you ship diesel. You farmers use diesel. I lots of things use diesel and that's where the problems lie at the moment. Fuel are all kinds of different products that you make out of a barrel of oil. That's where the issue lies. Refineries are having a great time, but the rest of us, this is where the inflationary impulse comes from. Russia has banned exports of diesel until the end of the year, which is another constraint, of course, on that part of the story when it comes to energy.

And energy is needed for I. And you've got some details coming through, some intriguing stories once again on a daily basis this term, we've been talking about the revenues coming through from from OpenAI, at least the reported revenues. We have to deal with them with a bit of skepticism, given that they are not yet publicly listed companies, but anthropic. And this is the reporting around anthropic that's taking the lead on the enterprise space and what they've been telling investors as they prepare for this IPO, potentially around October, is that they have a revenue run right now in the order of about 65 billion USD.

So that is seven times what they were looking at at the end of last year. So if those numbers are accurate, then enterprises globally are spending not insignificant amounts of money on anthropic options, dropping services, including companies signing million dollar plus deals for these frontier AI solutions. So at some point, I definitely get to deliver. It's going to generate a lot of money. Cash flow. Anthropic, I suspect, is probably still like significantly negative and will continue to be for quite some time.

But the question is yes. So revenues are rising. Companies are spending a lot of money. Yeah. Who's making. But what. But where is the profit showing up. Because at some point you need to make some profits on this. Otherwise we're going to end up with that kind of hole at some point. It's going to be this sort of investment gap because the revenue won't be there. The profit won't be there to support the, the the, uh, the spend area is definitely going to have a long term huge impact.

It's just a sequencing issue. But I think we are getting more differentiation within the equity market. Right. So Neil Kaplan from our news department has pointed out that the anthropic ecosystem has outperformed the open AI ecosystem because they have greater adoption rates. And so, you k