AI服务器MLCC交期拉长至40周，产能扩张推迟
So just tracking the MLCC cycle:
So just tracking the MLCC cycle:
所以，仅追踪MLCC周期：
ComponentNews classified server MLCCs as “severe” shortage stage, with ETNews reporting:
ComponentNews将服务器MLCC归类为“严重”短缺阶段，ETNews报道：
- Samsung has reached ~40 week lead times for some high capacitance MLCCs per DigiKey’s shipment data.
- 根据DigiKey的发货数据，三星某些高电容MLCC的交货期已达到约40周。
Earlier this year, broader reports were ~20 weeks, so the AI server MLCC bottleneck keeps growing.
今年早些时候，广泛报告约为20周，因此AI服务器MLCC瓶颈持续加剧。
- Murata was ~24 weeks in June.
- 村田在6月份约为24周。
July was ~30 weeks. And now some at ~36 weeks.
7月份约为30周。现在有些达到约36周。
This was interesting:
这很有趣：
“The expansion of new production capacity is being postponed from Q4 2026 to 2027”
“新产能的扩张从2026年第四季度推迟到2027年”
Doesn’t say which expansion… maybe Murata? But if capacity expansion reportedly gets stalled, the bottleneck should tighten short term.
未指明是哪个扩张……也许是村田？但如果产能扩张据报停滞，短期内瓶颈应会收紧。
Lead times are a good way to track demand imbalances.
交货期是追踪需求失衡的好方法。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力