Gemini计划拓展预测市场分销，清结算已内部化

Gemini plans to expand the reach of its prediction markets through outside distribution partners, the company said during its second-quarter earnings call Friday.

Company executives outlined the next stage of a push that has already brought clearing in-house and involved heavy investment in liquidity.

Co-founder and president Cameron Winklevoss said Gemini is now looking to add partners that can bring more trading activity to Gemini Titan, the company’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated designated contract market (DCM). The effort follows the Aug. 4 launch of Gemini Olympus, its derivatives clearing organization (DCO), which now clears Gemini’s prediction market contracts.

“With our clearinghouse now live and clearing our own contracts, which keeps those economics in-house, we are now focused on adding distribution partners to our DCM and expect to have more updates on our progress here shortly,” Winklevoss said during the earnings call.

Gemini builds liquidity as prediction volume outpaces revenue

The strategy would give Gemini another avenue to grow its prediction market beyond customers who trade directly on its platform. Winklevoss said increasing taker activity through distribution would, in turn, attract more market makers, tighten spreads and allow customers to trade larger amounts more predictably. He described that liquidity cycle as the next step toward increasing prediction market activity at Gemini.

Gemini has spent much of 2026 building toward that point. In its second-quarter earnings report, the company said it tripled the number of contracted market makers on its prediction platform, introduced new maker and taker incentive programs and upgraded its Predictions API.

Prediction market trading volume increased 93% quarter over quarter, even as prediction market transaction revenue rose a more modest 18% to about $524,000, reflecting Gemini’s decision to prioritize liquidity over near-term fee revenue.

Gemini looks beyond its own app for distribution

Gemini did not identify any prospective distribution partners or detail how the arrangements would be structured. In practice, the strategy could allow outside brokerage, fintech or trading platforms to give their own customers access to contracts listed on Gemini Titan, bringing additional order flow to Gemini’s exchange without requiring those traders to use the Gemini app directly.

Winklevoss’ comments make clear that outside distribution is meant to solve the scale/liquidity problem, even though Gemini hasn’t yet said what the integrations will look like.

That strategy came up again during the analyst Q&A, when Goldman Sachs asked how Gemini could compete in prediction markets against rivals that are investing aggressively and already have significantly larger customer bases.

“We’ve … invested in the entire stack,” Winklevoss said. “We’ve got the clearinghouse and the exchange, which allows us to control our destiny with more control and also work on distribution partnerships to help move the flywheel.”

Gemini’s ownership of both the exchange and clearinghouse is central to that pitch. The company has also applied to register an affiliated futures commission merchant (FCM), one of two regulatory approvals Gemini says it needs to launch perpetual futures in the U.S. The other is an amendment allowing its clearinghouse to handle margining.

Gemini co-founder and CEO Tyler Winklevoss said the company deliberately built the broader derivatives infrastructure for more than prediction markets.

“Very few firms in this country hold that combination of licenses, and we built ours in-house rather than spending significant capital to acquire it,” Tyler Winklevoss said. “The stack was built for more than predictions.”

Gemini prioritizes prediction market liquidity over fees

The gap between Gemini’s prediction market trading growth and revenue growth reflects a deliberate effort to build liquidity rather than maximize fees while the product is still relatively new.

Interim CFO Danijela Stojanovic said the roughly $500,000 in prediction market transaction revenue reported for the second quarter reflected the deduction of rebates paid through the maker and taker incentive programs that Gemini introduced during the period. Those rebates amounted to roughly 20% of gross prediction market fees.

Stojanovic said Gemini’s “focus in the period was on building depth in the order book rather than maximizing short-term fee capture.”

Gemini expects that investment to eventually translate into stronger revenue as more traders and market makers participate. Stojanovic described prediction markets as an early-stage product. Still, the company is encouraged by the increase in customer activity and expects monetization to improve as liquidity and participation grow.

July volume hits another record as football season approaches

Gemini’s prediction market growth continued after the second quarter. The company said July produced another monthly high for prediction trading volume, with activity boosted in part by the later stages of the World Cup.

“We reached new monthly highs in prediction trading volume during July,” Stojanovic said. “Importantly, activity has remained healthy even after [the World Cup] concluded.”

Gemini said crypto prediction contracts have helped sustain that activity, particularly Bitcoin markets offered across different durations and expiration dates. Stojanovic said the engagement was “really demonstrating that prediction markets are evolving beyond one-off event-driven trading.”

Cameron Winklevoss called prediction markets Gemini’s largest near-term growth opportunity and pointed specifically to the upcoming sports schedule, which includes the start of the college and professional football seasons. Gemini has also been expanding the types of contracts and features it can offer as it prepares for that activity.

Among those features are parlay-style custom combos. Those would allow traders to combine multiple outcomes into a single contract. Gemini said in its Q2 presentation that a combos request-for-quote system is already available to developers in a sandbox environment, although it is not yet available for live trading. The company has not announced a launch date.

Prediction markets remain a small but growing piece of Gemini

Prediction markets remain a relatively small part of Gemini’s overall business. The roughly $500,000 generated by predictions in the second quarter represented just over 1% of the company’s $45.5 million in total revenue.

But the segment is taking on greater strategic importance as Gemini looks to diversify beyond crypto trading. Crypto exchange trading revenue fell 38% year over year to $12.5 million in the quarter, while spot crypto trading volume dropped 66% to $3.8 billion. Gemini’s largest individual revenue source was its credit card business, which generated $16.2 million, with the remainder coming from OTC trading, staking, advisory services, interest income and other businesses.

“Despite crypto market headwinds, we’re making significant strides towards building a more resilient company by developing multiple paths to revenue that are less sensitive to crypto market forces and reducing operating expenses,” Tyler Winklevoss said in the earnings release.

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