地缘紧张推升油价，美股美债齐跌
Stocks & Bonds Fall as Oil Rises on Geopolitical Tensions | The Close 8/17/2026
THE COUNTDOWN IS ON. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO GET THE EDGE AT THE END OF THE MARKET DAY. THIS IS THE CLOSE.
倒计时开始。市场收盘前，你需要掌握的一切，助你抢占先机。这就是收盘时刻。
AN OTHERWISE QUIET WEEK ALMOST REPAIRED FROM STUDIO TWO, IN NEW YORK, I'M SCARLET FU.
原本平静的一周几乎从二号演播室恢复常态，我在纽约，我是斯嘉丽·傅。
I AM ISABELLE LEE. IT'S MONDAY AGAIN.
我是伊莎贝尔·李。又是周一了。
MID AUGUST AND FAIRLY QUIET. NEVERTHELESS, STOCKS AND BONDS ARE FALLING, OIL RISING ON THE NEW GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS. THE S&P 500 DOWN AFTER LAST WEEK'S RECORD HIGH. CHIPMAKERS ARE HIGHER FOR A FOURTH DAY. WTI IS AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL THIS MONTH SO A REMINDER THAT INFLATIONARY PRESSURES PERSIST AND THAT IS HELPING PUT PRESSURE ON BONDS AT THE LONG END OF THE YIELD CURVE. THE 30 YEAR YIELD, HIGHEST SINCE 2007 AND THAT IS BEFORE THE FINANCIAL CRISIS HE --. -- CRISES.
八月中旬，市场相当平静。尽管如此，股票和债券下跌，油价因新的地缘政治紧张局势而上涨。标普500指数在上周创下历史新高后下跌。芯片制造商连续第四天上涨。WTI原油价格达到本月最高水平，这提醒我们通胀压力持续存在，并给收益率曲线长端的债券带来压力。30年期收益率创下自2007年以来的最高水平，那是在金融危机之前——危机。
ISABELLE: THE COMPANY REPORTED ITS CFO PLANS TO RETIRE AT THE END OF 2027 SO YOU SEE THE STOCK DOWN BY NEARLY 5% AND NEXT UP, JETBLUE AIRWAYS, SHARES DROPPING DOWN BY MORE THAN 6% AFTER SEAPORT GLOBAL CUT ITS RECOMMENDATION TO NEUTRAL. THE ANALYST SAYING THE BALANCE SHEET RISK MOVES TO THE FRONT BURNER WITHOUT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ OPENING. SHARES ARE ALSO IN THE RED. I SHOULD HAVE JUST SAID IT'S A SEA OF RED, SCARLET.
伊莎贝尔：该公司报告其首席财务官计划于2027年底退休，所以你看股价下跌了近5%。接下来是捷蓝航空，在Seaport Global将其评级下调至中性后，股价下跌超过6%。分析师表示，在霍尔木兹海峡未开放的情况下，资产负债表风险成为首要问题。股价也处于下跌状态。斯嘉丽，我本可以直接说这是一片红海。
PHILIPS SECURITIES DOWNGRADED THE E-COMMERCE PLATFORM WITH THE PRICE TARGET AT 170 FROM 180. DEFINITELY BIG LOSERS THERE. SCARLET: SHOPIFY, ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE COMPANY. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IN THE TECH SPACE. I REMEMBER A TIME WHERE IF INVESTORS TALKED ABOUT ROTATION, IT WAS USUALLY BETWEEN DIFFERENT CENTERS BUT TECH IS SO BIG THAT WE GET QUOTATIONS WITHIN THE INDUSTRY. YOU CAN SEE A LOT OF BLUE BARS TO THE DOWNSIDE AND THAT REPRESENTS ONE-DAY DECLINES IN CHIP STOCKS.
飞利浦证券下调了该电商平台的评级，目标价从180降至170。那里确实有大的输家。斯嘉丽：Shopify，企业软件公司。让我们谈谈科技领域的情况。我记得有一段时间，如果投资者谈论轮动，通常是在不同中心之间，但科技板块如此之大，以至于我们在行业内看到轮动。你可以看到很多向下的蓝色柱，代表芯片股的单日下跌。
SOMETIMES, THERE IS WHITE BARS MOVING UP, ONE DAY GAINS IN SOFTWARE STOCKS. WE ARE GETTING THERE. WHAT YOU WILL SEE IS A BLUE BAR GOING UP. DECLINES IN SOFTWARE AS INVESTORS ROTATE OUT OF SOFTWARE AND BACK INTO SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS. AS THE PERFORMANCE BROADENS, EXPOSURE TO THE ACADEMIC -- EQUITY MARKET SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT SO LET'S KICK THINGS OFF WITH THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR AT MORGAN STANLEY PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT.
有时，有白色柱向上移动，代表软件股的单日上涨。我们正在接近那个状态。你将看到蓝色柱向上移动。软件股下跌，因为投资者从软件股轮出，回到半导体股。随着表现范围扩大，对学术——股票市场的敞口应该会跟进，所以让我们先请摩根士丹利私人财富管理执行董事来开场。
GOOD TO SPEAK WITH YOU. WE CAN LOOK AT WHAT IS GOING ON IN SEMICONDUCTORS AS A WAY INTO OUR CONVERSATION AFTER THE SELLOFF IN JULY IN THAT GROUP. THE WORD THAT KEEPS COMING UP SEEMS TO BE REBALANCING OUR PORTFOLIO. DOES A ROTATION BETWEEN SOFTWARE IN SEMICONDUCTORS COUNT AS EFFECTIVE REBALANCING?
很高兴与你交流。我们可以从半导体行业的情况开始我们的对话，该板块在7月遭遇抛售。不断出现的词似乎是重新平衡我们的投资组合。软件和半导体之间的轮动算不算有效的重新平衡？
THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME ON. YOU ARE 100% RIGHT. AS INVESTORS ARE GETTING SO ENAMORED WITH AI, THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT BRINGS ALL ACROSS THE SECTOR AND OF COURSE VARIOUS PARTS OF TECHNOLOGY, THIS IS WHERE IT'S VERY EASY TO FALL INTO THIS CONCENTRATED POSITION, BEING SO CONCENTRATED IN ONE SECTOR AND WHILE WE MIGHT BE DIVERSIFIED IN TECHNOLOGY, WE ARE NOT QUITE EXPOSED TO OTHER CENTERS AND THIS IS WHERE OUR VIEW OF BROADENING OF THE MARKET TAKES PLACE, WHEN WE LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL AI HOLDS ACROSS THE SECTORS, IN FINANCIALS, AND INDUSTRIALS, IN HEALTH CARE.
感谢您的邀请。您说得完全正确。随着投资者对人工智能如此着迷，以及它在整个行业以及技术的各个部分带来的可能性，这很容易陷入集中持仓的境地，如此集中于一个行业，虽然我们可能在科技领域实现了多元化，但我们并没有充分接触其他领域，这就是我们考虑市场拓宽的地方，当我们审视人工智能在各行业（金融、工业、医疗保健）的潜在影响时。
IT TRULY IS AMAZING BUT WE NEED TO SEE THE DEPTHS OF THE MARKET JUST LIKE WE SAW HIM RECENTLY AND IS BUYING OPPORTUNITIES BUT ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT VOLATILITY IS HERE TO STAY AND IT IS SOMETHING THAT WE ARE GOING TO BE DEALING WITH AZTEC INVESTORS. SCARLET: REMOUNT -- IN TECH INVESTORS. SCARLET: THAT INCLUDES SEMICONDUCTORS AND SOFTWARE COMPANIES AND ADDING TO OTHER INDUSTRY GROUPS. WHAT IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST SECTOR THAT YOU LIKE RIGHT NOW, YOUR MOST FAVORED ONE?
这确实令人惊叹，但我们需要看到市场的深度，就像我们最近看到的那样，既有买入机会，也要明白波动性将长期存在，这是我们将与AZTEC投资者共同面对的事情。SCARLET：重新提及——科技投资者。SCARLET：这包括半导体和软件公司，并增加其他行业板块。您目前最喜欢的单一最大行业是什么？
KATERINA: THE SECTOR THAT IS THE BEST IS FINANCIAL SECTOR. ONE IS WE SEE THE AI IMPLEMENTATION. THE GAME RIGHT NOW THAT EVERYONE IS TRYING TO PLAY IS HOW TO MONETIZE THE AI INVESTMENT IN FINANCIALS, ESPECIALLY THE LARGE FINANCIALS. TO BE POSITIONED BEST IN THE SPACE. NOT ONLY THAT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER FOR LONGER AS WE SEE THAT THE GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND IRAN CONFLICT IS PRESENTING THIS UNCERTAINTY AND MOST LIKELY WE ARE GOING TO HAVE HIGHER OIL PRICES AFFECTING THE INFLATION AND PUSHING PROFITABILITY.
KATERINA：最好的行业是金融行业。一是我们看到人工智能的实施。现在每个人都在尝试的游戏是如何在金融领域，尤其是大型金融机构中变现人工智能投资。要在这个领域占据最佳位置。不仅如此，还有可能维持更长时间的高利率，因为我们看到霍尔木兹海峡的地缘政治局势和伊朗冲突带来了不确定性，很可能油价上涨会影响通胀并推高盈利能力。
THIS IS A POSITIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FINANCIALS. THERE IS A GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY AND THE OPPORTUNITY REIT -- TO RECEIVE SOME DIVIDENDS AS WELL AS THE APPRECIATION OF THESE STOCKS SO THAT IS OUR FAVORITE SECTOR RIGHT NOW.
这对金融行业来说是一个积极的环境。有很好的买入机会，以及获得股息和股票增值的机会，所以这是我们目前最喜欢的行业。
IF THE FED DOES STAY ON HOLD THROUGH THE YEAR END, WHICH BREAKTHROUGH FIRST? THE BOND MARKET, THE DOLLAR? KATERINA: IT'S HARD TO BE -- IT IS SUCH A TOUGH DECISION WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MARKETS BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WHAT WE JUST SAW IS THAT EASING LABOR MARKET EQUALING INFLATION SO OUR POSITION IS THE FED IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO STAY ON HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR BUT WE STILL HAVE TO BE REALISTIC THAT THERE IS 30% CHANCE THEY ARE GOING TO RAISE RATES AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN, THERE ABSOLUTELY IS GOING TO BE WEAKNESS IN THE EQUITY MARKET AND YOU KNOW, WE HAVE TO BE READY FOR IT NOT TO PANIC BUT THAT IS WHERE THE REBALANCING OF THE PORTFOLIO TAKES PLACE.
如果美联储确实在年底前保持按兵不动，哪个会先突破？债券市场，还是美元？KATERINA：这很难说——在充满不确定性的市场中这是一个艰难的决定，但同时，我们刚刚看到的是劳动力市场放松等同于通胀下降，所以我们的立场是美联储很可能在年内剩余时间保持按兵不动，但我们仍需现实地看待有30%的可能性他们会加息，如果发生这种情况，股市绝对会出现疲软，您知道，我们必须做好准备，不要恐慌，但这就是投资组合再平衡的时候。
ON THE FIXED INCOME SIDE, HIGHER RATES ALWAYS PRESENT OPPORTUNITIES AND WE THINK THE SWEET SPOT IS THE INVESTMENT GRADE INTERMEDIARY SPACE AND IT CAN PRESENT A VOLATILITY TO THE CURRENT BOND HOLDINGS BUT THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE ENCOURAGE INVESTORS TO SEE AS A PASSING PHASE BECAUSE INFLATION EVENTUALLY, WITH ALL THE FUNCTIONS AND POLICY OF THE FED, IS GOING TO COME DOWN AND READ THE FED IS GOING TO COME BACK TO LOWERING OF THE RATES.
在固定收益方面，较高的利率总是带来机会，我们认为最佳领域是投资级中期债券，它可能对现有债券持仓造成波动，但我们鼓励投资者将其视为一个过渡阶段，因为通胀最终在美联储的各项职能和政策作用下会回落，并且预计美联储将重新开始降息。
WE WOULD ENCOURAGE INVESTORS TO VIEW THIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP HIGH-QUALITY BONDS. HIGHER PAYING BONDS FOR THEIR PORTFOLIOS AS PART OF THE DIVERSIFICATION.
我们鼓励投资者将此视为一个机会，为他们的投资组合挑选高质量债券，作为多元化配置的一部分，获取更高收益的债券。
HOW HIGH DO OIL PRICES HAVE TO GO BEFORE YOU CALL THE IRAN SHOCK A GENUINE INFLATION PROBLEM? KATERINA: IT'S A TOUGH QUESTION. HERE IS WHY IT IS TOUGH. AT SOME POINT, LET'S JUST SAY WITH THE OIL PRICE BETWEEN 95 AND 125, OIL IS GOING TO PUT INFLATIONARY PRESSURES. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL ABSOLUTELY AFFECT THE ECONOMY AND EARNINGS. THIS IS WHAT IS SOMETHING THE FED WILL BE ABLE TO CONTROL WITH RISING INTEREST RATES AND SLOWING THE ECONOMY DOWN.
油价要涨到多高，你才会将伊朗冲击视为真正的通胀问题？卡特琳娜：这是一个棘手的问题。原因如下：在某个时点，比如说油价在95到125美元之间，石油将带来通胀压力。这将绝对影响经济和盈利。这是美联储能够通过加息和减缓经济来控制的。
WE KNOW THIS IS WHAT IS IN THEIR TOOLBOX. IF THE PRICE OF OIL WERE TO GO FURTHER, AND IT'S VERY UNLIKELY SCENARIO, THEN WE COULD POTENTIALLY GO INTO AN OIL-BASED RECESSION. THAT SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY NOT IN OUR BOOKS, NOT SOMETHING WE ARE FORECASTING. IT IS SOMETHING THAT HAS TO BE CONSIDERED ONE OF THE WORST CASE SCENARIOS IF THIS CONFLICT WERE TO BE PROLONGED.
我们知道这是他们工具箱中的工具。如果油价进一步上涨，虽然这种情况极不可能，那么我们可能会陷入基于石油的衰退。这种情景目前不在我们的预测中，不是我们正在预测的。但如果冲突持续，这必须被视为最坏情况之一。
WHAT IS THE NUMBER ONE CONVERSATION THAT YOU ARE HAVING WITH YOUR CLIENTS? WHAT IS THE QUESTION THEY ARE ASKING YOU? KATERINA: CAN THIS MARKET CONTINUE? WHEN WE LOOK BACK, NOT AT ONE, AT TWO, BUT THE LAST FIVE YEARS AND THE RETURNS THAT WE ARE LOOKING FOR THE PORTFOLIOS, THEY ARE HISTORICALLY UNPRECEDENTED AND WHAT WE TELL THEM IS THAT THIS IS THE CONVERSATION ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTALS. THIS IS THE TIME TO BE VERY SELECTIVE AND CAREFUL IN THAT PORTFOLIO DESIGN, THAT THE STORY OF AI IN THE STORY OF US MOVING INTO THE NEXT PHASE OF PRODUCTIVITY IS NOT JUST THE STORY OF ONE INDIVIDUAL COMPANY.
你与客户进行的最重要的对话是什么？他们问你的问题是什么？卡特琳娜：这个市场能否持续？当我们回顾过去，不是一年或两年，而是过去五年，我们为投资组合寻求的回报在历史上是前所未有的，我们告诉他们的是，这是关于基本面的对话。现在是投资组合设计中非常挑剔和谨慎的时候，AI的故事以及我们进入生产力下一阶段的故事不仅仅是单个公司的故事。
THIS IS JUST A STORY OF OUR BRIDAL -- BROADER GLOBAL ECONOMY SO THEREFORE WE THINK THE GLOBAL EXPOSURE IS IMPORTANT WHILE WE ARE LEANING ON THE U.S. AND BEING VERY MUCH IN TUNE WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE ECONOMY AND BEING ON THE FOREFRONT OF THIS OPPORTUNITY ALL ACROSS THE SECTORS. IT IS SOMETHING THAT IS GOING TO GET US THROUGH THE NOISE. SCARLET: THE CUSP OF A FOURTH STRAIGHT YEAR. THANK YOU SO MUCH. KATERINA IS EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR AT MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT.
这是我们更广泛的全球经济的故事，因此我们认为全球敞口很重要，同时我们依赖美国，密切关注经济动态，并在各个行业抓住这一机会的前沿。这将帮助我们穿越噪音。斯嘉丽：连续第四年的临界点。非常感谢。卡特琳娜是摩根士丹利财富管理的执行董事。
COMING UP ON THE CLOSE, STOCKS ARE POPPING. WE ARE GOING TO DISCUSS THE RISKS AND CHALLENGES TO LARGE-SCALE AI ADOPTION WITH THE CHIEF ANALYTICAL OFFICER AT GLOBAL RATINGS. ISABELLE: ROMAINE BOSTICK JOINS US WITH A TIME THE CONVERSATION WITH THE FORMER PEPSICO PRESIDENT. SCARLET: CRITICAL INSIGHTS WITH A LONG-TERM LEADER IN THAT SPACE. OPERATING PARTNER AT ADVENT INTERNATIONAL JOINS US WITH HER PERSPECTIVES. ALL THAT AND MORE, COMING UP.
收盘在即，股市正在上涨。我们将与全球评级机构的首席分析官讨论大规模采用人工智能的风险与挑战。伊莎贝尔：罗曼·博斯蒂克将与百事公司前总裁进行对话。斯卡莱特：与业内长期领导者进行关键洞察交流。安宏国际的运营合伙人将分享她的观点。以上内容及更多，即将呈现。
THIS IS THE CLOSE ON BLOOMBERG.
这里是彭博社的收盘报道。
AI STOCKS GETTING A LIFT AFTER ANTHROPIC REPORTED PRELIMINARY SECOND-QUARTER REVENUE OF 1.5 BILLION. THAT IS AT LEAST 14 FOLD YEAR INCREASE YEAR OVER YEAR. OUR NEXT GUEST SAYS AI SPENDING AND
人工智能股票在Anthropic报告第二季度初步收入达15亿美元后获得提振。这至少是去年同期的14倍增长。我们的下一位嘉宾表示，人工智能支出和
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更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力