AI股因Anthropic增长飙升，Alphabet拟发澳债

STOCKS TRADING NEAR ALL-TIME HIGHS, 30 MINUTES UNTIL THE START OF CASH TRADING. I AM DANI BURGER, "OPEN INTEREST" STARTS RIGHT NOW. COMING UP, AI STOCKS ARE BACK IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT AS ANTHROPIC'S GROWTH FUELED OPTIMISM. ALPHABET EYING BILLIONS IN ITS FIRST AUSTRALIAN BOND SALE. PRESIDENT TRUMP THREATENS OMAN, PRESSURING SOUTH KOREA AS THE AROUND WAR STRAINS ALLIANCES. SOME OF THE STOCKS MOVING HIGHER, IT HAS BEEN AI THAT HAS BEEN REVOLVED LAST WEEKEND.

THESE TECH STOCKS STARTING TO SEARCH, SANDISK UP 3.5%. REVENUES AT OPENAI AND ANTHROPIC ARE BOTH ADDING TO NEW EVIDENCE INVESTMENTS ARE STARTING TO PAY OFF. ANTHROPIC WITH THE REVENUE 14 TIMES HIGHER. THE BOOST COMES AS THE S&P 500 IS NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOLLOWING THREE STRAIGHT WEEKS OF GAINS. .2% OFF OF ALL-TIME HIGHS. ANTHROPIC, THEY HAVE REPORTED REVENUE JUMPED 14 FOLD IN THE SECOND QUARTER. MORE THAN $11 BILLION WERE TAKEN IN LAST QUARTER PIER THAT FOLLOWS OUR OWN REPORTING THAT OPENAI HAS AN REVENUE RUN RATE OF $48 BILLION.

ED, CONTEXTUALIZE 14 FOLD GROWTH IN REVENUE. ED: THE SAME PERIOD A YEAR AGO ANTHROPIC HAD REAL REVENUES OF ALMOST 800 MILLION DOLLARS. NOW WE'LL REVENUES $11.5 MILLION -- BILLION DOLLARS. THIS IS BASED IN DOCUMENTS BLOOMBERG HAS SEEN. THOSE ARE DOCUMENTS BEING PRESENTED TO PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS IN THE WEEKS AND MONTHS AHEAD OF WHAT WE THINK WILL BE AN IPO IN THE FALL. THAT'S IMPORTANT CONTEXT. ANOTHER DATA POINT IS IN THE SAME PERIOD THEY HAD A POSITIVE ADJUSTED OPERATING INCOME.

IF YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE MARKET REACTION THIS MORNING, THE SINGLE NAMES THAT MIGHT BE MOVING TO THE UPSIDE BECAUSE OF THIS KIND OF VALIDATES THE AI TRADE, BUT ALSO THE IDEA THAT LEADING PLAYERS WON'T INFINITELY BE LOST-MAKING. YOU MENTIONED OPENAI. OPENAI HAS A REVENUE RUN RATE OF $40 BILLION. WE SAY ANTHROPIC HAD 47 BILLION DOLLARS ANNUAL REVENUE RUN RATE IN MAY, BUT THOSE ARE NOT NECESSARILY CALCULATED THE SAME SO A SLIGHT GRAIN OF SALT ON THAT.

OTHERWISE, FULL STEAM AHEAD -- AT LEAST IN ANTHROPIC'S CASE -- FOR AN IPO. DANI: NVIDIA SPENDING, $31 BILLION IN INTEL, FOLLOWING NEWS OF THE NEW HIGH WATER MARK OF $500 BILLION OF CAPITAL BETWEEN NVIDIA AND SOME OF ALL STREET TO FINANCE VARIOUS CHIP PURCHASES. THE NARRATIVE OF NVIDIA BECOMING THE CENTRAL BANK OF AI TECH, HOW MUCH IS THAT TAKING HOLD? HOW MUCH OF THE ECOSYSTEM IS HINGING ON NVIDIA PROVIDING CHEAPER FINANCING?

ED: NVIDIA IS INFLUENTIAL IN CAPITAL MARKETS GENERALLY. WHAT WE LEARNED IS AN INVESTMENT NVIDIA MADE IN XAI IS NOW $21 BILLION IN PART BECAUSE OF THE PROCESS OF SPACEX ACQUIRING XAI AND THEN GOING PUBLIC. THE INTEL STAKE HAS GROWN, AS EVERYONE ELSE'S HAS, SINCE THAT PERIOD OF TIME WHEN THE U.S. GOVERNMENT AND NVIDIA TOOK EQUITY STAKES. THE CIRCULAR FINANCING QUESTION, WHAT NVIDIA WOULD SAY ABOUT THE 500 BILLION DOLLAR AGREEMENT WITH THOSE 6 WALL ST FIRMS IS IT IS THIRD-PARTY CAPITAL.

WE DON'T EVEN KNOW WHERE THE CAPITAL IS COMING FROM. THERE IS THE SENSE THAT IT WILL BE THE PENSION FUNDS, THAT IT WILL BE THOSE INSTITUTIONS THAT HAVE AN APPETITE FOR DEBT IN PARTICULAR, BECAUSE THE PROPOSED STRUCTURE IS THOSE WALL STREET FIRMS FIND THE MONEY, BUT YOU SET UP SOME KIND OF ENTITY THAT BORROWS, THAT BUYS THE GPU'S, THEY ARE COLLATERAL, THEN THEY GET LEASED OUT TO AN NVIDIA CUSTOMER. I WROTE ABOUT IT IN MY NEWSLETTER --A SHAMELESS PLUG -- BUT IF YOU'RE INTERESTED IN THAT STRUCTURE, IF YOU BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A DEGREE OF SEPARATION FROM NVIDIA THAT WOULD NOT MAKE THIS CIRCULAR FINANCING.

DANI: LET'S TALK ABOUT THE DEBT MARKET, EFFORT THAT IS THE LATEST COMPANY LOOKING TO RAISE THAT TO FEEL AI SPENDING, LOOKING TO RAISE THREE POINT $6 BILLION SPECIFICALLY AND WHAT WOULD BE THE BIGGEST -- THE FIRST EVER SEO IN AUSTRALIA. JOINING US IS ROBERT SCHIFFMAN. BEFORE WE GET TO THE KANGAROO BONDS, PICK UP ON THE POINT ED LEFT OFF ON. THE ABILITY TO GET FUNDING AND THE OFF BALANCE SHEET BORROWING HAPPENING. HOW MUCH OF THAT SPEAKS TO SOMETHING THAT IS NOT CIRCULAR FINANCING HAPPENING AMONG THE PRIVATE CREDIT PLAYERS.

THERE'S ENOUGH IN THE ECOSYSTEM IT'S NOT CONCENTRATED? ROBERT: ED IS TALKING ABOUT POINTS OF VALIDATION FOR AI. ALL WE KEEP SAYING, I THINK, ARE BULLISH DATA POINTS OF SUCCESS. AI IS STARTING TO BE MONETIZED AND MONETIZED IN SIZE, BUT ALL WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT IS HOW BAD THINGS ARE. HOW IT IS A HOUSE OF CARDS. CIRCULAR FINANCING. SET UP FOR COLLAPSE. I BELIEVE IT'S THE OPPOSITE. THE WAY THESE HYPERSCALER CEOS ARE TALKING ABOUT DEMAND EXCEEDING SUPPLY, WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT IN THE BOND MARKETS.

IT'S IN ALL DIFFERENT FORMS, PUBLIC, PRIVATE, ON BALANCE SHEET COME OFF BALANCE SHEET. THE QUESTION IS, IS THERE ENOUGH CAPITAL AROUND THE GLOBE TO BUILD WITH THE CEOS SEE AS THEIR VISION? MY ANSWER IS YES. THE BOND MARKETS ARE PROVING THAT IN SIZE. DANI: THERE IS ENOUGH CAPITAL IN THE WORLD BUT HOW MUCH NEEDS TO COME FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES THAN JUST PUBLIC BOND MARKETS GIVEN THE APPETITE OF THESE HYPERSCALER'S ON HOW MUCH THEY WANT TO SPEND?

ROBERT: WE SEE A WIDE VARIETY EVEN IN THE UNSECURED MARKETS ALONE. I HAS BORROWED A LITTLE OVER $75 BILLION IN BONDS FROM THE U.S., FROM SWISS FRANCS. BRITISH POUNDS. AND NOW THE AUSSIE KANGAROO BONDS. I THINK THERE IS A LOT OF MONEY CHASING THE POTENTIAL GROWTH THAT WE SEE. THE QUESTION IS, ARE YOU GOING TO SEE THAT GROWTH? YES. WHEN YOU ADD THE UNSECURED DEALS, WE ARE SEEING TRUE THIRD-PARTY MONEY. THE LARGEST PRIVATE EQUITY AND CREDIT SHOPS IN THE WORLD ARE RAISING HALF A TRILLION DOLLARS.

I THINK THAT IS A SPLIT IN THE BUCKET. WE WILL SEE THOSE NUMBERS TRIPLE. WHERE IS IT COMING FROM? PENSION FUNDS. INSURANCE COMPANIES THAT HAVE LONG-DATED LIABILITIES AND NOW WANT TO PUT THOSE ASSETS TO WORK AND THEY ARE GETTING YIELDS TO TAKE THE RISK OF PRIMARILY AA NAMES I DON'T HAVE THAT MUCH RISK. DANI: IS THAT MONEY GETTING SUCKED OUT OF OTHER PARTS OF THE MARKET, TREASURIES, OR OTHER PARTS OF THE MARKET, IS THAT BEING CROWDED OUT BY THE NEED OF AI SPENDING?

ROBERT: NOT REALLY. ALPHABET IS IN THE PROCESS OF RAISING $85 BILLION OF EQUITY. SPACEX DID. ANTHROPIC WILL COME. OPENAI. WE'VE SEEN NAMES LIKE ORACLE ISSUE EQUITY. YOU WILL SEE MORE OF THAT, I THINK. THOSE STOCKS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BIT ROLLER COASTER RIDES. BUT OVERALL THEY ARE UP IN SIZE. THERE'S A LOT OF CAPITAL FROM THE EQUITY SIDE. FROM OTHER POOLS, THERE IS A VARIETY OF THESE OTHER POOLS THAT CONTINUE TO EXIST.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE VERY CREATIVE WAYS OF BOTH BORROWING AND CAPITAL-RAISING. DANI: PART OF MY QUESTION IS, DOES IT DISRUPT WIDER FINANCIAL MARKETS? AN ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE FINANCIAL MARKETS WENT HIGHER DESPITE SOFTER CPI? MAYBE THEY ARE GOING HIGHER BECAUSE THE MARKET NEEDS TO ABSORB THE SUPPLY COMING FROM HYPERSCALERS? ROBERT: THAT READS GREAT IN AN ARTICLE BUT IN REALITY IT'S NOT THE TRUTH. WE HAVE SEEN TRILLION DOLLAR PLUS HIGH-GRADE BOND ISSUANCE YEAR AFTER YEAR.

INCREMENTALLY, MAYBE WE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WE WERE LAST YEAR, 25%, AND A BIG PART OF THAT IS HYPERSCALERS GETTING AN ENORMOUS PART OF PUBLICITY, A BANKS RAISE $600 BILLION A YEAR NO ONE SAYS ANYTHING ABOUT IT BECAUSE THE CREDIT QUALITY STARED CASH FLOWS ARE THERE. DO PEOPLE SELL TREASURIES WHEN THEY BUY CORPORATE BONDS? YES. A BIG CHUNK OF REAL MONEY PLAYERS DO THAT. BUT IT IS THAT OVERALL EFFECT AND TREASURY RATES?

IF YOU HAVE IRA JERSEY, HE IS NOT SAYING TREASURIES ARE WHERE THEY ARE BECAUSE OF CORPORATE BONDS. THEY ARE THERE BECAUSE OF OTHER INFLATIONARY PRESSURES AND OTHER MACRO THINGS THAT ARE GOING AROUND THE GLOBE. IF YOU WANT TO BLAME EVERYTHING ON AI, GO AHEAD, BUT I DON'T THINK THAT'S WHY RATES ARE WHERE THEY ARE. DANI: THANK YOU FOR JOINING. ROBERT SCHIFFMAN OF BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE. LET’'S GET ANOTHER DOSE OF REALITY.

THE MIDDLE EAST. PRESIDENT TRUMP TOLD FOX NEWS HE WOULD BOMB OMAN IF HE GETS IN THE WAY OF THE U.S. BLOCKADE IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. LET'S GET THE LATEST FROM OUR BLOOMBERG WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT. WHAT SEEMS TO HAVE BROUGHT THIS ABOUT? TYLER: AT THIS POINT THIS IS CONSIDERED A MAJOR ESCALATION IN TERMS OF THE PRESIDENT'S T