彭博观察：科技股连涨三周，Anthropic Q2营收11.5亿美元

THINGS ARE LOOKING REASONABLE RIGHT NOW FOR THE EQUITY MARKETS.

THE BOOM IS HERE. IT IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN BUT SO THERE IS A LOT OF VOLATILITY UNDER THE SURFACE.

WE ARE BIT MORE CAUTIOUS COMING INTO SEPTEMBER.

WE SEE THE POSSIBILITY INTO NEXT YEAR THE MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO BROADEN.

THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE" WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ, AND ANNMARIE HORDERN. JONATHAN: GOOD MARK, GOOD MORNING. FOR OUR AUDIENCE WORLDWIDE, " BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE" STARTS NOW. TECH STOCKS PUSHING HIGHER, BUILDING ON THREE STRAIGHT WEEKS OF GAINS AS ANTHROPIC IS TELLING INVESTORS REVENUE SURGE TO 11.5 BILLION IN Q2 AND HYPERSCALERS ARE CONTINUE TO FINANCE MAKE SPENDING PANS. ALPHABET LOOKING TO TEMPER THAT MARKET ONCE AGAIN.

ANNMARIE: ANTHROPIC TELLING INVESTORS THIS BEFORE THE IPO LIKELY THIS FALL AND ALPHABET ONCE AGAIN TAPPING THE DEBT MARKET DOES NOT MATTER WHERE YOU LOOK, EQUITY MARKET, DEBT MARKET, HYPERSCALERS ARE GOING OUT THERE AND HAVING TO RAISE MORE CAPITAL. JONATHAN: $25 BILLION ISSUED THIS MONTH. $20 BILLION EARLIER THIS YEAR. YOU HAVE HAD OFFERINGS ACROSS MULTIPLE CURRENCIES AND NOT ONLY TALK ABOUT ALPHABET, IT INCLUDES $85 BILLION EQUITY RAISED IN THE MIX.

GOING TO TAP EVERY SINGLE POCKET OF LIQUIDITY AVAILABLE TO THEM ACROSS EVERY SINGLE CURRENCY IT SEEMS AROUND THE WORLD. ANNMARIE: AUSTRALIA WENT THROUGH SWISS FRANC, EURO U.S. DOLLAR. FOR AUSTRALIA, THIS IS VERY BIG. FOR ALPHABET, A LITTLE LESS SO. OTHER BIG OFFERINGS THEY WENT THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN, AND WE ARE THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST, THEY ALREADY DID THIS A FEW WEEKS AGO. YOU CAN SEE THE INSATIABLE DEMAND. JONATHAN: MAJOR EFFORT ACCORDING TO EQUITY MARKET, TECH STOCKS BOUNCING AGAIN.

EQUITY FUTURES HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD. YIELDS LOOK LIKE THIS THIS MORNING. LAST WEEK WAS BUSY ON THE DATA FRONT. CPI RETAIL SALES. THIS WEEK, A LITTLE QUIETER. CPI IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS. PPI, SOFT. RETAIL, SOFT. ANNMARIE: WILL WE SEE THREE DISSENTERS WHEN YOU HAVE BETH HAMMACK ONCE AGAIN COMING OUT LAST WEEK EVEN AMIDST ALL THAT SOFTER DATA SAYING, I THINK NOW IS THE TIME TO ACT? YES. RIGHT NOW THE DATA IS ON THE DUBS SIDE AND KEVIN WARSH POTENTIALLY FROM AN INDIVIDUAL WHO ONCE -- THE DATA IN THE DUBS IS ACTUALLY WILL HELP.

JONATHAN: THE STORY FOR THE LONGER END OF THE CURVE IS INTERESTING. 20 YEAR BOND OFFERING. GOING TO BE A STORY LATER THIS WEEK. TAKE A LOOK ACCRUED. WTI AROUND 83, BRENT AROUND 89. HITS TO LEBANON FROM ISRAEL. THE U.S. LOOKING TO RAMP UP ECONOMIC PRESSURE. NONE OF THIS IS CONDUCIVE TO DIPLOMACY RIGHT NOW. THIS STORY DROPS FROM UP WITH THE JOURNAL" INDICATING A WERE PREPARED FOR A BIGGER FIGHT. ANNMARIE: THAT STORY IS ONE THAT IS STARTING TO IGNITE SOME OF THE CONCERNS AND RHETORIC IN THE REGION.

ARAB INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS HAVE PICKED UP EVIDENCE OF COMMUNICATIONS BETWEEN IRAN AND MILITIA ALLIES IN COUNTRIES SUCH AS YEMEN AND IRAQ WITH A STRATEGIC SHIFT INSIDE THE COUNTRY OF HARDLINE LEADERSHIP. THERE PREPARING TO GO AFTER THE UNITED STATES. IT IS INTERESTING THE STORY DROPPED WHEN TODAY MARKS THE 60 DAYS SO THE END OF THE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING. WE HAVE NOT MADE PROGRESS WHEN IT COMES TO OFFICIALLY REOPENING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS.

JONATHAN: NEXT TO NO UNDERSTANDING OF THE LAST 60 DAYS. CRUDE THIS MORNING CLOSE TO $90. RENT AT $89.50. WE WILL CATCH UP WITH RBC AS TECH STOCKS. JAPANESE BOND YIELDS AT 30 YEAR HIGH. FED RATE HIKES CONTINUE TO EASE. WE BEGIN WITH STOCKS HOLDING CLOSER TO ALL-TIME HIGHS, LOOKING TO BUILD ON THREE STRAIGHT WEEKS OF GAINS. LORI CALVASINA WRITING, WE CONTINUE TO THINK ABOUT FORECASTERS HIGH BUT NOT HEROIC AND REFLECTIVE OF THE IDEA THAT STOCKS CAN MOVE HIGHER THOUGH THE PATH IS UNLIKELY TO BE LINEAR.

SHE JOINS US NOW FOR MORE. GOOD TO SEE YOU. THAT IS QUITE THE UPSIDE COMPARED TO WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW. WHAT GIVES? LORI: WE UPDATE ONCE A MONTH SO WE OBVIOUSLY HAVE HAD A BIG MOVE THIS MONTH AND SO WE WOULD TELL YOU TO GO BACK AND LOOK AT THE END OF JULY WHEN WE FROZE THE MODELS. BASICALLY IN LINE WITH TRENT AND I WOULD SAY AS WE GO THROUGH THE FIVE MODELS FROM OUR CROSS AS THAT MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSTRUCTIVE, LOOKING FOR PLUS 8300.

WHEN WE LOOK AT THE AA SENTIMENT MODEL THAT HAS BEEN ARGUING FOR LIKE A 10% PLUS GAIN. GDP MODEL IS INTERESTING. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CONSENSUS WAS LOOKING FOR 1% TO 2% GDP EARLY NEXT YEAR AND NOW WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THIS 2027 FORECAST IS NUMBERS A BIT ABOVE 2%. OUR ECONOMISTS HAVE MOVED US SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2%. THAT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH 10% PLUS GAIN BUT WE HAVE CAUTIONED PEOPLE THOSE UPGRADES TO GDP FORECAST CAME AS THE WAR WAS TURNING MORE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF OUTCOME.

THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A RISK OF SETTLING INTO A SLIGHTLY LOWER RANGE IF WE HAD SIGNIFICANT SETBACKS. IT IS SOMETHING WE HAVE TO WATCH BUT WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY CHANGE IN THE DATA GET. JONATHAN: LET'S BUILD ON THE OUTLOOK AND WERE SENTIMENT IS. YOURS IS A 12 MONTH ROLLING TARGET. THE AVERAGE IS ABOUT 7850. ON THE S&P 500. THAT DOES NOT SCREAM EXUBERANCE THE STRATEGY SIDE OF THINGS. 20% EARNINGS GROWTH EXPECTED. WE GET SOMETHING CLOSER TO 30.

THAT IS A MAJOR EARNINGS BOOTH AND YET QUITE LIMITED OUTLOOK ON WALL STREET. WHAT EXPLAIN THAT? LORI: WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IS THERE IS A SLIDING SCALE BETWEEN THE PRESSURE ON THE PE AND SHRINK IN EARNINGS. WE ARE MODELING TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT YEAR. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HAIRCUT CONSENSUS EPS GROWTH BY 10%. YOU HAVE VERY BULLISH NUMBERS BUT WE SAID, FINE, IF YOU'RE WORRIED, LET'S TAKE SOME OFF THE TOP. BUT WHAT WE ARE REALLY SAYING IS IF YOU LOOK AT AN ELEVATED INFLATION RATE, IF YOU BAKE AT THAT IN AND A COUPLE OF HIKES AND 10-YEAR GILTS OF SAY 4.75, YOU GET SOME DECENT PE CONTRACTION WHICH CAN BORROW AGAINST YOUR OFFSET SOME OF THE EARNINGS STRENGTH.

I WOULD SAY WHAT INVESTORS ARE STRUGGLING WITH. THE MACRO CROWD IS IN A TIZZY OVER THE INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT. LESS OF THIS WEEK THAN A WEEK OR TWO AGO. BUT STILL FEELING PRETTY UNSETTLED. BOTTOM UP EQUITY PEOPLE ARE GOING, YEAH, WE ARE WATCHING THAT. IT IS LIKE NUMBER FIVE OF THINGS WE'RE WORRIED ABOUT BECAUSE EARNINGS ARE SO GREAT. THE REALITY IS YOU HAVE STRONG EARNINGS TAILWINDS, CROSSCURRENTS, BUT HEADWINDS ON THE INTEREST RATE PLACE INSIDE.

ANNMARIE: TODAY IS TECHNICALLY SUPPOSED TO BE THE 60 DAY MARK OF MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING. THERE'S BEEN LITTLE UNDERSTANDING. OUR CLIENTS STILL ASKING ABOUT THIS? LORI: IT COMES UP LESS. I THINK THERE HAS BEEN SOME DESENSITIZATION. I JOKED ONCE MANY YEARS AGO MACRO PEOPLE, WE CAN WORRY ABOUT WHATEVER BIG PICTURES WE WANT BUT THE BOTTOM UP EQUITY PEOPLE DON'T PAY ATTENTION AND LESSER COMPANIES ARE TALKING ABOUT IT.

WHEN WE LOOK AT WHAT COMPANIES ARE SEEING ON EARNINGS CALLS, I THINK I WENT ON A RANT A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO ABOUT THIS. THE FIRST HALF OF REPORTING SEASON, THE COMPANIES WERE NOT TALKING ABOUT THE WAR. WE PUT THIS IN OUR WEEKLY. WE SAID, WE NEED GUIDANCE FROM CORPORATE AMERICA ON HOW THINGS ARE GOING WITH HEDGES, WITH INVENTORIES. LAST REPORTING SEASON, THEY SAID THEY HAD AT LEAST A COUPLE QUARTERS TO WORK THROUGH. WE SAID, WELL, AND THEY ALSO SAID, BY THE WAY, THEY THOUGHT THE WAR WOULD GO THROUGH THE SUMMER OR Q2.

WE SAID Q2 HAS PASSED. A SUMMER IS HERE. WHERE ARE WE NOW? I WAS AT THE COMMENTARY WE HAVE SEEN COME OUT THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IS MORE AND LOOKS AT THE IDEA MAYBE SOME OF THOSE INVENTORIES WERE HEDGES ARE WORKING UP AT OTHERS ARE STILL IN PLACE. IT FEELS LIKE WE HAVE LESS WIGGLE ROOM BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME. JONATHAN: THIS WEEK WE WILL HEAR FROM HOME DEPOT, TARGET, WALMART. TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY. RETAIL SALES WAS REALLY SOFT.

HOW DO YOU EXPECT THESE COMPANIES TO GUIDE HER THE CONSUMER INTO YEAR-END? LORI: THE COMMENTARY WE HAVE CONTINUED TO HERE IS VALUE SEEKING BEHAVIOR, THE PRESSURES FROM THE LOW END CREEPING UP TO THE MIDDLE END. I THINK LARGELY WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR FROM COMPANIES HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS NARRATIVE WE HAVE GOTTEN KIND OF OVER THE LAST FEW QUARTERS, BUT THERE WERE SOME CRACKS. IF I LOOK AT THE TRAVEL COMP