ICE突袭致企业受损,消费支出永久下降140亿美元
How Trump's ICE Raids Are Damaging Businesses
移民执法对实体经济产生可量化的永久性冲击,消费支出下降140亿美元,影响范围超出移民社区,值得宏观与消费研究者关注。
It was a Saturday morning when we first saw the SUVs. You can see my customers are doing their laundry, routine day, and then this gentleman that saw ICE coming through, he runs through the laundromat and all my customers follow after him. I could just see their fear. Individuals were getting quite literally snatched off the streets very indiscriminately in our part of town. In November 2025, The Department of Homeland Security launched a major operation in North Carolina.
那是一个周六的早晨,我们第一次看到那些SUV。你可以看到我的顾客们正在洗衣服,日常的一天,然后这位先生看到ICE(移民海关执法局)的人过来,他跑过洗衣店,我的所有顾客都跟在他后面。我能看到他们的恐惧。在我们这个城区,人们简直是被不分青红皂白地从街上抓走。2025年11月,国土安全部在北卡罗来纳州发起了一次大规模行动。
Among the areas most affected was along Central Avenue in East Charlotte, home to a large immigrant community. There was just agents arresting people at supermarket parking lots. They're going to work. You cannot arrest workers and then claim to want economic development for the state. The operation started on a Saturday. On the following Monday, businesses were shutting down left and right. No more ICE, No more ICE.
受影响最严重的地区之一是东夏洛特的中央大道沿线,那里居住着大量移民社区。特工们就在超市停车场逮捕人。他们是要去上班的。你不能逮捕工人,然后又声称希望该州经济发展。行动始于一个周六。接下来的周一,企业纷纷关门。不要ICE,不要ICE。
Congress has given ICE a very specific authority, which is to remove individuals that don't have a legal right to be in this country. While the initial shock of the raids in Charlotte has subsided, they've had unexpected long-term effects and indicate how Donald Trump's immigration policy is impacting the American economy. It was mid-November when the operation happened. After that, it's kind of like, OK, everything is back to normal.
国会赋予了ICE非常具体的权力,即驱逐没有合法居留权的人。虽然夏洛特突袭的初期冲击已经平息,但它们产生了意想不到的长期影响,并表明唐纳德·特朗普的移民政策如何影响美国经济。行动发生在11月中旬。之后,感觉就像,好吧,一切都恢复正常了。
Nothing is happening. The crisis is over. But actually what we continue to see was more arrests in East Charlotte specifically. They target early morning work vans, vans that look like construction work. These are not people that are a threat. These are folks that are going to work. And now all of a sudden, these workers are not there anymore. It's just kind of really paralysed the economy. My name is Greg Asciutto. I am the executive director of a community-based nonprofit called CharlotteEast.
什么都没发生。危机结束了。但实际上,我们继续看到的是,特别是在东夏洛特,更多的逮捕。他们瞄准清晨的工作面包车,看起来像建筑工作的面包车。这些人不是威胁。这些是去上班的人。而现在突然之间,这些工人不在了。这真的让经济瘫痪了。我叫格雷格·阿休托。我是社区非营利组织CharlotteEast的执行主任。
People are struggling across the board right now. Business is down. So you have a beauty salon, Sav/Way, a couple smaller hyper-specific businesses like Yolandas, her dress shop down there. She does quinceaneras, Lempira, a Honduran restaurant. Just a really great mix. A really, really strong community. Many businesses had to immediately adjust if they did not fully close, adjust their business practises. The groceries, I mean, they were definitely impacted too, but because of the nature of their industry, they weren't impacted at the same level as Manolo's who does cakes for quinceaneras and special events.
现在每个人都在挣扎。生意下滑。所以你有美容院Sav/Way,还有几家较小的特定业务,比如Yolandas,她的服装店在那边。她做十五岁成人礼的礼服,还有Lempira,一家洪都拉斯餐厅。真的是一个很好的组合。一个非常非常强大的社区。许多企业不得不立即调整,如果没有完全关闭的话,调整他们的经营方式。杂货店,我是说,它们肯定也受到了影响,但由于行业性质,它们受到的影响程度不同于Manolo's,后者为十五岁成人礼和特殊活动做蛋糕。
It was a completely different ballgame. In total nationwide, the Department of Homeland Security says more than half a million people have been arrested and deported during these operations. As an economist and business school professor, as I was watching, it struck me that behind the background of the people doing the chasing and being chased, there's businesses. How are they affected by this? And I found that the decline in spending was about $14 billion, which is a decline relative to the year before.
这完全是另一场游戏。在全国范围内,国土安全部表示,在这些行动中已有超过五十万人被逮捕并驱逐出境。作为一名经济学家和商学院教授,当我观看时,我意识到在追捕者和被追捕者的背后,还有企业。它们如何受到影响?我发现支出下降了约140亿美元,这是相对于前一年的下降。
And what surprised me about that is that these weren't temporary blips. It wasn't that the decline kind of happened quickly and then we went back to normal. The decline was permanent. On weekends, our parking lot would be full. I mean, it would be packed. And ever since those first several weeks, there was hardly any cars. As time has gone by customers have just dwindled, really. My revenue has dropped at least 50, 60%.
让我惊讶的是,这些并不是暂时的波动。不是那种下降迅速发生然后又恢复正常的情况。下降是永久性的。周末时,我们的停车场会满。我是说,会挤得满满的。而自从最初几周以来,几乎没有什么车了。随着时间推移,顾客真的在减少。我的收入至少下降了50%到60%。
I have a video of ICE picking up a customer of mine. That's, that's about as much as, I don't know what happened to him. And what I've experienced ever since then is that a lot of families have left. A lot of folks have left on their own. Patience and lot, lots of prayers. It's going to take a long time to recover from, from everything that's been happening, really. Analysis by Bloomberg Businessweek of data from Placer Labs Inc.
我有一段ICE带走我一位顾客的视频。那,那大概就是,我不知道他后来怎么样了。而从那以后我所经历的是,很多家庭离开了。很多人自行离开了。耐心和很多祈祷。要从发生的一切中恢复过来,真的需要很长时间。《彭博商业周刊》对Placer Labs Inc.数据的分析。
A company that uses location signals from mobile devices to calculate foot traffic, revealed a significant slowdown for 18 small businesses along Central Avenue. You might think that this effect is confined to those most likely to be targeted by ICE. Immigrants and Hispanics, right? They would be the ones who are afraid. They're the ones who aren't showing up to work. Not the case. Data from across the country indicates that even in areas that have a below-average immigrant and Hispanic population, foot traffic and spending are down.
这家公司利用移动设备的位置信号来计算人流量,显示中央大道沿线的18家小企业出现了显著放缓。你可能会认为这种影响仅限于那些最可能成为ICE目标的人群。移民和西班牙裔,对吧?他们会是害怕的人。他们是那些不去上班的人。事实并非如此。来自全国各地的数据表明,即使在移民和西班牙裔人口低于平均水平的地区,人流量和支出也在下降。
People now have less income. They have less money to spend. And that can create a really bad negative cycle because if you have less money to spend, now businesses are receiving fewer patrons and fewer spending per patron, which means that businesses have to cut back, which means that they're not hiring, which means that they're paying less in local taxes. And you can really kick off a downward spiral if that's a permanent effect.
人们现在的收入更少。他们可花的钱更少。而这可能造成一个非常糟糕的恶性循环,因为如果你可花的钱更少,企业就会接待更少的顾客,每位顾客的消费也更少,这意味着企业必须削减开支,这意味着他们不招聘,这意味着他们缴纳的地方税更少。如果这是一个永久性的影响,你真的可能引发一个螺旋式下降。
The impacts in East Charlotte aren't confined to small businesses. Churches and local schools both reported declines in attendance during and after the raids. If you have hundreds of thousands of children not showing up to school or partially showing up to school, they're not able to build the human capital that they need in the long run to be productive citizens, productive workers, et cetera. That's very hard to quantify right now, but it's going to affect their ability to pay taxes, their ability to work as productively as perhaps they could.
东夏洛特的影响不仅限于小企业。教堂和当地学校都报告称,在突袭期间及之后,出勤率有所下降。如果有成千上万的孩子不去上学或部分时间不去上学,他们长期内就无法积累成为有生产力的公民、有生产力的工人等所需的人力资本。这目前很难量化,但这将影响他们纳税的能力,影响他们尽可能高效工作的能力。
It's one thing to suffer a temporary drop in foot traffic or spending in a business. It's another thing when an important percentage of your workforce and your citizenry is not as educated or capable as they could be because you've scared them to death from showing up to school. This map is a map of North Carolina, and what we do is we've uploaded data of confirmed attentions or confirmed sightings of ICE. North Sharon Amity is clear two miles each direction from Central, period.
生意中客流量或消费暂时下降是一回事。当你的劳动力和市民中有相当比例的人因为被吓得不敢上学而未能达到应有的教育水平或能力时,那就是另一回事了。这张地图是北卡罗来纳州的地图,我们所做的是上传了已确认的ICE关注或目击数据。北沙龙阿米蒂从中央大道起,每个方向两英里内是禁区,句号。
Onto Albemarle, period. We're looking for tinted vehicles, people in plain clothes with their typical tactical vests. I'll look up and down the streets and look through parking lots of apartment complexes, construction sites. Look out for those also. There's been threats of doxing to our organisations, volunteers. And just because of what the Trump administration is doing, I don't feel safe being known that I'm doing what I'm doing.
然后是阿尔伯马尔,句号。我们在寻找深色车窗的车辆、穿着便衣但带有典型战术背心的人。我会在街道上来回查看,并检查公寓小区、建筑工地的停车场。也要留意那些。有人威胁要人肉我们的组织和志愿者。而且仅仅因为特朗普政府的所作所为,我觉得让人知道我在做我所做的事情并不安全。
It's calmer on the streets now, but there's still residual fear. Hi, good afernoon, Siembra hotline. We have a hotline. And in the last month, we have received 874 calls. People call us when their loved one gets detained. We provide navigation, support of that detention, legal referrals. There's a solidarity fund. If you think about it from like just an economic perspective in the state, these are folks that are contributing to the economy.
现在街道上平静了些,但仍有残余的恐惧。你好,下午好,Siembra热线。我们有一条热线。在过去一个月里,我们接到了874通电话。当他们的亲人被拘留时,人们会打电话给我们。我们提供导航、拘留支持、法律转介。还有一个团结基金。如果你从州的经济角度来看,这些人是在为经济做贡献的。
People are left without the person that, that works in the household. Families can lose their homes. Sometimes they take one parent and not the other, even though they're in the same asylum case. Police. Open the door. We frame the entire issue of immigration as a safety issue, something that you need to be protected from. But if I could scream anything from the rooftops, it would be that we need to stop thinking about immigrants as just people who come here and they're a body who fills a job.
人们失去了家中工作的人。家庭可能会失去家园。有时他们带走一位家长而不带走另一位,即使他们在同一个庇护案件中。警察。开门。我们把整个移民问题框定为安全问题,是需要你受到保护的事情。但如果我能从屋顶上大声喊出什么,那就是我们需要停止把移民仅仅看作来到这里的、填补工作岗位的人。
Immigrants are also consumers. In the United States, it's estimated that immigrants have at least $1.3 trillion in discretionary income and spending power. That's money that they spend on your business, on the products and services that your business is offering, and they sustain your livelihood. If you look at our immigration system and our immigration laws, it is complete nonsense. For one, it hasn't been updated since 1990.
移民同时也是消费者。在美国,据估计移民拥有至少1.3万亿美元的可支配收入和消费能力。这些钱花在你的生意上,花在你的企业提供的产品和服务上,他们支撑着你的生计。如果你看看我们的移民制度和移民法律,那完全是荒谬的。首先,自1990年以来就没有更新过。
And now fertility rates are so low in the United States, we're well below replacement rate. So the number and types of visas that we give legally don't make sense for an economy that has grown almost 3 times since 1990. We need more people for our growing economy. We need different kinds of people with skills that our legal system does
而现在美国的生育率如此之低,我们远低于更替水平。因此,我们合法发放的签证数量和类型,对于一个自1990年以来经济增长了近3倍的经济体来说,是不合理的。我们不断增长的经济需要更多的人口。我们需要不同类型、拥有我们法律体系所不具备技能的人才。
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