美股期货因AI信心上涨，中东局势紧张，美元走弱

VONNIE: IT IS 5:00 A.M. IN NEW YORK CITY. GOOD MORNING. LET'S GET YOU STARTED. ISRAEL ATTACKS LEBANON AS THE U.S. READIES NEW ECONOMIC MEASURES AGAINST IRAN. THE DOLLAR SLIPS AS DATA FURTHER BOLSTERS USING FED RATE HIKE BETS. STOCK FUTURES CLIMBED ON AI CONFIDENCE. AND THE AI BOND BINGE CONTINUES WITHOUT ALPHABET IRONING BILLIONS FOR ITS FIRST AUSTRALIAN OFFERING. LET'S GET A CHECK ON MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD WITH WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG FOR THE LATEST IN ASIA.

WINNIE: WE ARE SEEING ASIAN STOCKS EDGING HIGHER FOR A FOURTH DAY. GAINS BEING LED BY TECHNOLOGY SHARES. WE DO HAVE THE KOREAN MARKET ON HOLIDAY TODAY BUT JAPANESE STOCKS SEEING QUITE A BIT OF WEAKNESS, FOLLOWING THE LATEST GDP NUMBERS THAT SHOWED UNEXPECTED SLOWDOWN IN ECONOMIC GROWTH, SPECIFICALLY IN CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND CONSUMPTION. THE JAPANESE YEN STRENGTHENING FOLLOWING THE BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE U.S. DOLLAR. THE CHINESEH -- THE CHINESE ASSET, THE STRENGTH IS IN TECH.

AI MODELS HAVE SEEN 3 BILLION TIMES OF DOWNLOADS IN THE PAST SIX MONTHS AND THAT IS TOP IN THE LIKES OF GOOGLE AND META. WE ALSO SAW ACROSS ASSET WISE, THE YEN EXTENDING THE GAINS AFTER THE LATEST SET OF ECONOMIC DATA STILL SHOWING THE WEAKNESS IN THE ECONOMY. WHETHER IT BE THE RETAIL SALES NUMBERS OR FIXED INVESTMENT ALL MISSING ESTIMATES. INVEST IS NOW BETTING THE GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TO STEP UP WITH THEIR STIMULUS SUPPORT.

VONNIE: WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG. WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT EUROPE, STARTING WITH THE STOCKS EUROPE 600 WHICH IS HIGHER. IT IS OFF THE HIGHS OF THE DAY BUT PLENTY OF GROUPS DOING WELL. DEFENSE COMPANIES, BASIC RESOURCES, HIGHER METALS PRICES. SHIPPING COMPANY AFTER MAERSK RESULTS. ALL PULLING THE INDEX HIGHER. WE DO HAVE THE BRITISH POUND A LITTLE STRONGER AGAINST THE U.S. DOLLAR. NOTABLE THAT WE ARE TRADING ABOVE 1.35 FOR STERLING.

COPPER IS FASCINATING. NOT QUITE AT THE PEAKS YET, BUT ANOTHER 1% HIGHER AND VERY CLOSE TO THOSE PEAKS. THE SPOT PRICE AND THREE-MONTH OUT PRICE, THAT SPREAD IS THE WIDEST IT HAS BEEN SINCE 2021. THIS ON MASSIVE INFLOWS INTO THE U.S., CREATING SUPPLY CONCERNS ELSEWHERE. AND THE REASON THE U.S. IS IMPORTING ALL THIS COPPER IS THANKS TO TARIFFS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TARIFFS. WE HAVE EUROPEAN GAS PRICES HIGHER AS WELL. STORAGE NOT AS HIGH AS IT SHOULD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY THE END OF WINTER, STORAGE LEVELS COULD BE AT ABOUT 20% OF WHAT THEY SHOULD BE. THAT'S ABOUT 62 EUROS PER MEGAWATT HOUR AT THE MOMENT. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE U.S. BECAUSE WE ARE STARTING MONDAY OFF WITH A NICE RALLY IN NASDAQ 100 FUTURES. THE NASDAQ SEEMS DETERMINED TO PUT JULY BEHIND IT. WE ARE BACK ALMOST TO WHERE WE WERE IN JUNE. WE HAVE REALLY REGAINED MOST OF THOSE LOSSES FROM JULY. DOWN 6.6%. THIS MONTH, WE ARE UP MORE THAN 6% IN THE NASDAQ.

NOT QUITE THE RALLY IN THE S&P AND RUSSELL THAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE NASDAQ. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT YIELDS BECAUSE THAT'S THE BIG STORY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS JACKSON HOLE. WE ARE TRADING A LOT LOWER. BACK DOWN TO 4.6822. A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN ELEVATED. THE 30 YEAR YIELD, WELL ABOVE 5.25%. THAT SPREAD IS DEFINITELY WIDENING. IT IS FAST ENDING WITH MORE OPTIONS THIS WEEK TO SEE WHAT YIELDS WE WILL GARNER.

LET'S GET SOME INDIVIDUAL MOVERS NOW.

GOOD MORNING. WE ARE LOOKING AT ALPHABET SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN PREMARKET TRADING. IT IS RAISING $5 BILLION OVER IN AUSTRALIA BY A BOND SALE, WHICH COMES ON TOP OF A WHOLE HOST OF SIMILAR SALES GLOBALLY THIS YEAR. ALLETE IS ONE FROM ALPHABET. EXPECTING PRICING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. JUST PUSHING A SLIGHTLY INTO THE GREEN IN PREMARKET TRADING. ALSO LOOKING AT SPACEX. THE WIDER AI SORRY WE ARE SEEING BOOSTING SPACEX THIS MORNING.

NOT AS MUCH AS OTHER STOCKS IN PREMARKET TRADING BUT GIVING A LITTLE BOOST, 1% HIGHER INTO THE GREEN. FERRARI SOLD THEIR FIRST EVER FULLY ELECTRIC VEHICLE AND IT WENT FOR 40 MILLION U.S. DOLLARS. IT IS PUSHING IT SLIGHTLY HIGHER, MIMICKING TRADING IN THE LONG -- IN MILAN. A BIG SALE FOR FERRARI. A FEW CONCERNS OVER HOW THIS WILL BE WELCOMED BUT SEEMINGLY DOING WELL. VONNIE: THANK YOU SO MUCH. COMING UP, WE WILL SPEAK MORE ABOUT RATES AND THE TREASURY MARKET MORE BROADLY WITH ELLA GUDE OF BNY INVESTMENTS NEWTON.

FIRST, TENSIONS ESCALATING AS ISRAEL SAYS IT HAS KILLED A SENIOR HEZBOLLAH COMMANDER ALONG WITH 11 OTHER PEOPLE SUNDAY DURING STRIKES IN LEBANON. JOINING US FROM DUBAI IS ABEER ABU OMAR. GIVE US THE DETAILS. ABEER: GOOD MORNING. THE DEADLIEST ATTACK IN SOUTHERN LEBANON SINCE THE MOU WAS SIGNED IN SWITZERLAND. A SENIOR COMMANDER IN HEZBOLLAH, 11 PEOPLE KILLED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF LEBANON AND THIS COMES AT A DAY WHERE THE MOU WE TALKED ABOUT BACK IN JUNE IS AT ITS DEADLINE.

THE 60 DAYS HAVE PASSED, ALTHOUGH WE ARE TAKING THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY MOMENTS AGO COMING OUT AND SAYING THAT DEADLINE, THAT MOU IS IRRELEVANT BECAUSE OF ALL THE VIOLATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN COMMITTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS OR SO. IN THE MEANTIME, WE ARE MONITORING VERY CLOSELY WHAT IS HAPPENING BETWEEN OMAN AND IRAN. WE ARE MONITORING THOSE NEGOTIATIONS TAKING PLACE.

THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND IRAN SAYING THAT IS A TAKING A WHILE BECAUSE OF SOME OF THOSE SECURITY REASONS. OBSTRUCTIVE BEHAVIOR BY THIRD PARTIES, NAMELY THE U.S., THAT IS WHAT IRAN IS REFERRING TO. WE UNDERSTAND THOSE TALKS TO REOPEN A PATH WITHIN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ARE IN THE FINAL STAGES. WE HAVE BEEN REPORTING THAT THEY ARE IN THE FINAL STAGES. BUT YOU ARE NOT SEEING A LOT OF REACTION ON BRENT CRUDE PRICES AT THIS POINT.

AS INVESTORS REALLY BRACE FOR A CATALYST IN THIS WAR. WE ARE NOW AT A PLACE OF THESE TENSIONS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A PLACE OF THESE SANCTIONS AND COUNTRIES IN THE REGION'S. WE HEARD MOMENTS AGO THE PRIME MINISTER OF KYRGYZSTAN OFFICE WAS TARGETED BY IRANIAN DRONES, HE SAYS. YOU ARE SEEING PARAMETERS OF THE WAR WIDENING. LEBANON IS ONE OF THOSE PARAMETERS. OF COURSE, WE ARE WATCHING THE HOUTHIS TARGETING SHIPS IN THE RED SEA.

PERHAPS WHAT IS REALLY INTERESTING IN ALL OF THIS IS THE WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT IRAN HAS USED THE RELATIVE LULL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS TO REBUILD OR REESTABLISH ITS MILITARY FOR A POTENTIALLY BROADER CONFLICT. I WAS TAKING A LOOK AT THE STORE EARLIER IN THE MORNING. AND IT WAS SUGGESTING THAT IRAN COULD PERHAPS BE PREPARING FOR A BIGGER WAR THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN. ALSO SUGGESTING THE IRGC, THE INFLUENCE IT HAS WITHIN THE ECHELONS OF POWER IS GREATER THAN WHAT IT WAS.

PERHAPS THIS GIVES A LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SOME OF THE STORIES WE REPORTED OVER THE LAST WEEKEND ABOUT SOME MEMBERS IN THE IRGC, BEING RESHUFFLED WITHIN THE CLOSE CIRCLE OF THE NEW SUPREME LEADER. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. DEVELOPMENTS WE CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON BUT NOTHING IS CLEAR ON THESE WIDER NEGOTIATIONS OR THE INTRICATE NEGOTIATIONS WITHIN THE WIDER NEGOTIATIONS. VONNIE: POTENTIALLY A LOT OF DEVELOPMENTS BUT THE MARKET WAITING FOR SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE CONCRETE.

ABEER, THANK YOU SO MUCH. TREASURIES RISING AS THE DOLLAR WEAKENS. THE LETTUCE ECONOMIC DATA EASING THE MARKETS WAGER ON THE RATE BUT NEXT MONTH. JOINING US NOW -- WE ARE PRETTY PRICED OUT FOR SEPTEMBER. I GUESS THERE'S A SMALL CHANCE WE WILL GET A RATE HIKE IN SEPTEMBER BUT WE HAVE TO GET SOME MORE DATA THAT WOULD CONFIRM THE NEED FOR A HIKE, WOULD IT WAIT?

YES. AT THE MOMENT, WE ARE NOT EVEN SEEING A RATE HIKE FULLY PRICED AND FOR THE END OF THE YEAR. THAT IS QUITE A SHIFT FROM LAST WEEK. I THINK AFTER LAST WEEK'S DATA SHOWING WEAKENING EMPLOYMENT AND RETAIL SALES AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, THERE IS A BAR TO BE CROSSED FOR ANY FURTHER HIKE THAT IS BEING ADDED. WE WILL HAVE MORE DATA COMING UP THIS WEEK IN TERMS OF THINGS LIKE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE WHICH COULD BE INTERESTING.

IT DOES SEEM TO BE THE TRAJECTORY THAT WE ARE SEEING AND BEING THROWN TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS. VONNIE: IT IS FASCINATING BECAUSE WE SAW THE INITIAL REPRICING OF THE YIELD CURVE. WE JUST MOVED HIGHER BUT ALSO STEEPER. WE DIDN'T QUITE GET THE UNWIND IN THE FED BETS MARKET WOULD HAVE YOU BEL