阿里Qwen模型下载量破30亿，创全球纪录
Alibaba Reports World-Beating 3 Billion Downloads for Qwen | The China Show | 8/17/2026
9:00 A.M. IN HONG KONG AND SHENZHEN, I'M YVONNE MAN. DAVID: LET'S GET TO YOUR TOP STORIES TODAY. STOCKS STARTED OFF LOWER AFTER WEAK ECONOMIC DATA OUT OF THE U.S. THE DOLLAR IS ALSO TRADING LOWER AS THEY BET FOR A FED INTEREST RATE HIKE. YVONNE: WATCHING SHARES OF ALIBABA AFTER 3 BILLION DOWNLOADS FOR THE FAMILY OF AI MODELS. DAVID: CHINA DROPPING AFTER HOUSEHOLD AND BUSINESS SENTIMENT, NUMBERS FOR JULY ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR OUTPUT GROWTH AND A STEEPER DECLINE IN FIXED ASSET INVESTMENT.
香港和深圳时间上午9点，我是Yvonne Man。David：让我们来看今天的头条新闻。在美国经济数据疲软后，股市开盘走低。由于市场预期美联储加息，美元也在走低。Yvonne：关注阿里巴巴的股价，其AI模型系列下载量达到30亿次。David：中国股市在家庭和企业信心数据公布后下跌，7月份的数据预计还将显示产出增长和固定资产投资更大幅度的下滑。
YVONNE: WE WILL TALK TO THE CFO OF CHINESE ROBOTICS STARTUP AHEAD OF THE CONFERENCE IN BEIJING AND LATER THE CEO OF BLUESCOPE STEEL JOINS US AFTER EARNINGS MISSED ESTIMATES. NORMALLY, THIS WOULD BE A BIG DAY TODAY. WE WOULD CAP DOWN TO WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE DATA AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR BUT WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE DATA TO COME THROUGH TODAY. THINGS ARE A BIT DELAYED ON THAT FRONT BUT IT IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. DAVID: IT IS QUIET ANYWAY.
Yvonne：我们将在北京会议前采访中国机器人初创公司的首席财务官，稍后蓝Scope钢铁的首席执行官在盈利未达预期后加入我们。通常情况下，今天会是一个重要的日子。我们本应在整点时刻关注数据发布，但今天我们必须等待数据公布。这方面有些延迟，但整体上相当平静。David：反正也很平静。
ONE SIMPLY HAS TO LOOK AT THE BENCHMARK. YOU HAVE MAJOR MARKETS LIKE KOREA SHUT TODAY. YOU'RE NOT GETTING A LOT OF VOLUME COMING THROUGH. THEY DID RESCHEDULE THE RELEASE OF THE NUMBERS FOR AFTER THE MARKETS CLOSE INCLUDING HOME PRICES THAT SHOULD BE AT THE TIME THE MARKETS OPEN. YVONNE: AND YOU HAVE ONE OF THE RECORD WEAKEST JULY WHEN IT COMES TO THE CREDIT DATA. IT GOES TO SHOW WHAT WE COULD SEE AND WE HAVE THIS NEWS ABOUT AI.
只需看看基准指数。像韩国这样的主要市场今天休市。你不会有太多成交量。他们重新安排了数据发布的时间，改在市场收盘后，包括房价数据，应该会在市场开盘时公布。Yvonne：而且7月份的信贷数据是创纪录的最弱月份之一。这显示了可能的情况，我们还有关于AI的消息。
THAT'S WHERE THE NEW ECONOMY SIDE OF THINGS MAY BE HAS NOT REFLECTED IN THE DATA. IT GOES TO SHOW THAT IT IS ABOUT NEW TECH AND INNOVATION. MAYBE THAT'S WHY YOU'RE SEEING THE NON-AI SIDE OF THINGS LOOK PRETTY WEAK. DAVID: WE WILL TALK ABOUT THOSE TWO LEGS OF THE K-SHAPED. IT IS ABOUT THE ECONOMY. THE EQUITY MARKETS AT THE BOND MARKET SPECIFICALLY, THREE BIG THINGS THIS WEEK. YOU HAVE THE FED MINUTES COMING UP. YOU HAVE THE LONG BOT OPTION OF THE TREASURY MARKETS LATER ON IN THE WEEK.
这就是新经济方面可能未反映在数据中的地方。这表明关键在于新技术和创新。也许这就是为什么你看到非AI方面看起来相当疲弱。David：我们将讨论K型分化的两条腿。这关乎经济。股市和债市，本周有三件大事。美联储会议纪要即将公布。本周晚些时候还有国债市场的长期期权。
YOU HAVE A SURGEON BOND MARKET IN CHINA PUSHING TO NEW HIGHS. THE 10 YEAR YIELD IS GOING THE OPPOSITE WAY OF WHERE YOU ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD. AS WE LOOK AT THE OPEN TODAY, WE HAVE EARNINGS REACTION FROM FRIDAY. JIMMY'S COMING OUT WITH EARNINGS TODAY. AS FAR AS EQUITY MARKETS IN CHINA GO, WE ARE ON THE FOUR-DAY STREAK A WEEK AS FAR AS THE EMBASSY IN CHINA GOES. WE LOOK AT KEY LEVELS AT THE 100 DAY MOVING AVERAGE.
中国债券市场飙升，创下新高。10年期收益率走势与世界其他地区相反。在今天的开盘时，我们有周五盈利的反应。Jimmy今天将公布盈利。就中国股市而言，就中国大使馆而言，我们处于连续四天的涨势中。我们关注100日移动平均线的关键水平。
THE ENHANCING INDEXES IN FOCUS TODAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT 1.68 PERCENT HANDLE NOW ON THE 10 YEAR YIELD. WE HAVE NOT BEEN AT THESE LEVELS FOR ABOUT 12 MONTHS. AND WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING OR NOT HAPPENING IN THE CURRENCY MARKETS WHERE YOU HAVE EXTREMELY TIGHT RANGE ON DONALD TRUMP RECENTLY. YVONNE: WE HAVE FED MINUTES, WE HAVE ALIBABA REPORTING THIS WEEK, WE HAVE THE TREASURY REPORTING SOMETIME THIS WEEK AS WELL. THERE IS A TECH THEME ACROSS THIS.
今日焦点是增强指数。我们现在看到10年期收益率在1.68%的水平。我们大约12个月没有达到过这样的水平。而在货币市场中，最近唐纳德·特朗普相关交易区间极其狭窄，市场既无大事发生也无明显动向。伊冯：我们有美联储会议纪要，阿里巴巴本周将发布财报，财政部本周也将发布报告。这背后有一个科技主题贯穿其中。
OF COURSE WE ARE COUNTING DOWN TO THE JULY ACTIVITY DATA. THAT VOLATILITY IS GOING TO COLLAPSE. ALL OF THE NEWS WE HAVE BEEN GETTING WHEN IT COMES TO AI, NOT JUST THAT BUT ALSO ALIBABA AS WELL. WE TALK ABOUT EARNINGS. LET'S START WITH THE DATA. DAVID: IT IS A LEADER THEN -- LATER THAN USUAL RELEASE. THE DATA IS EXPECTED IN ANY CASE THE ECONOMY DID LOSE MOMENTUM AHEAD OF LAST MONTH'S POLITBURO MEETING. AND REDUCING STIMULUS, WE DID GET AN INDICATION, AN EARLY INDICATOR FOR THE MONTH OF JULY.
当然，我们正在倒计时等待7月活动数据。波动性将会崩溃。我们一直在获取关于人工智能的所有新闻，不仅仅是这些，还有阿里巴巴的消息。我们谈论财报。让我们从数据开始。大卫：这是一个比通常发布更晚的领先指标。无论如何，数据预计将显示经济在上月政治局会议前失去了动力。关于减少刺激措施，我们确实得到了一个7月份的早期指标。
IT WILL GIVE US A PREVIEW OF THE NUMBERS DEBATE.
这将让我们预览数字辩论。
IF YOU LOOK AT THE FORECAST, RETAIL SALES IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH. IT IS HOVERING AT LEVELS THAT HAVE BEEN THE WEAKEST SINCE OUTSIDE THE COVID LOCKDOWN YEARS. THE FIXED ASSET INVESTMENT EXPECTING TO DETERIORATE. IT CONTINUES TO REAFFIRM THE K-SHAPED RECOVERY WHERE YOU HAVE TECH AND TECH-LET EXPORTS BEING THE BRIGHT SPOTS. BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LIFT THE BROADER ECONOMY. PART OF IT IS SEASONAL BECAUSE OF THE BAD WEATHER THAT WE GOT LAST MONTH.
如果你看预测，零售销售预计将比上月有所改善。它徘徊在疫情封锁年份以外最弱的水平。固定资产投资预计将恶化。这继续印证了K型复苏，即科技和科技相关出口是亮点。但不足以提振整体经济。部分原因是季节性的，因为上个月天气不佳。
A COUPLE OF TYPHOONS AND FLOODS THAT WOULD HAVE AFFECTED SHIPMENTS AND CONSTRUCTION AS WELL. OVERALL, NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD. ESPECIALLY DISAPPOINTING AFTER THE POLITBURO MEETING WHICH DID REVEAL NEW STIMULUS. YVONNE: HOW BAD WAS IT?
几场台风和洪水影响了运输和建筑。总体来看，情况不太好。尤其是在政治局会议揭示新刺激措施后，这尤其令人失望。伊冯：情况有多糟？
IT WAS BAD. ANOTHER RECORD SLUMP. A BORROWER'S REPAYING CLOSE TO 600 BILLION U.S. A CONTRACTION IN BOTH LONG-TERM BORROWINGS FROM CORPORATE SAND HOUSEHOLDS. FOR HOUSEHOLDS IT REALLY MEANS PEOPLE ARE NOT WILLING TO TAKE OUT MORTGAGES. THIS IS TIED TO THE PROPERTY SECTOR. CORPORATIONS ARE NOT WILLING TO TAKE OUT LOANS FOR INVESTMENTS WHEN THE ECONOMY IS NOT DOING VERY WELL. THE ECONOMICS DID SAY THAT IT REFLECTS A STRUCTURAL SHIFT TO AN ECONOMY TOWARDS THE NEW TECH SECTORS BECAUSE THESE ARE HIGH TECH SECTORS THAT ARE VERY HIGH GROWTH.
很糟。又一次创纪录的下滑。借款人偿还了近6000亿美元。企业和家庭长期借款均出现收缩。对家庭而言，这意味着人们不愿申请抵押贷款。这与房地产行业有关。当经济表现不佳时，企业也不愿贷款投资。经济学家确实表示，这反映了经济向新技术行业的结构性转变，因为这些高科技行业增长非常快。
MOST OF THEM ARE RAISING FUNDS THROUGH EQUITY MARKETS AND BOND MARKETS. THAT IS WHY WE ARE SEEING A CONTRACTION IN NEW LOANS. THIS CHART SHOWS THE ORANGE LINE AND AGGREGATE FINANCING. THAT GREW BY 1.4 TRILLION. IT WAS BETTER THAN EXPECTED BUT THE BULK OF IT 1.3 OUT OF THE 1.4 WAS GOVERNMENT BOND ISSUANCE. THAT HELPED OFFSET THE CONTRACTION AND OUTSTANDING LOANS. GOVERNMENT LOANS, PERHAPS THEY CAN SHOW UP LATER ON IN THE CAP ECONOMY WHERE THEY ARE DEPLOYED TO INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS.
他们中的大多数正在通过股票市场和债券市场筹集资金。这就是为什么我们看到新增贷款出现收缩。这张图表显示了橙色线和总体融资规模。增长了1.4万亿，好于预期，但其中大部分——1.4万亿中的1.3万亿——是政府债券发行。这帮助抵消了贷款余额的收缩。政府贷款，也许它们稍后会在资本经济中显现出来，被用于基础设施投资。
YVONNE: THANK YOU FOR WHAT TO EXPECT ON THE DATA HERE TODAY. YOU ARE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE MACRO PICTURE IN CHINA AND IT HAS BEEN QUIET. ALSO THE CG BE RALLY SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF TRACTION NOW. DAVID: A LOT THAT IS RELATED TO WHAT WE JUST TALKED ABOUT. A LOT OF IT IS QUIET AND STABLE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CYCLICAL STORY THERE. IT'S SORT OF THE LACK OF PUSH WE ARE GETTING. YOU'RE GETTING A PUSH IN THE INDUSTRIAL SIDE OF EXPORTS.
伊冯：谢谢你今天对数据预期的解读。你正在关注中国的一些宏观情况，而且一直很平静。此外，CG BE的反弹现在似乎有了一些动力。大卫：很多都与我们刚才讨论的内容有关。当你观察那里的周期性故事时，很多都是平静而稳定的。这有点像我们缺乏推动力。你在工业出口方面得到了推动。
COMING OUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE MACRO CHARTS. ONE OF THE THINGS I WANT TO POINT OUT IS THIS CRASH IN ACTUAL VOLUME OF THE CHINESE OFFSHORE CURRENCY. 10 YOU'LL -- LOOK AT WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW. WE ARE EXTREMELY CLOSE TO TAKING ON 2015 LOW. WE ARE NEAR RECORD LOWS. AND THIS IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WOULD GET SOME VARIANCE AND A LACK OF VARIANCE. THE OTHER THING WE WANT TO POINT OUT, WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BOND MARKETS, THIS HEADLINE IS CROSSED.
当谈到宏观图表时，我想指出的一件事是中国离岸货币实际交易量的暴跌。看看我们现在的位置。我们非常接近触及2015年的低点。我们接近历史低点。这是否会带来一些波动，还是缺乏波动。我们想指出的另一件事是，当你观察债券市场时，这个头条新闻已经交叉了。
THE HIGHEST SINCE 1990 SIX. EVERYTHING ELSE IN CHINA IS GOING THE OPPOSITE WAY. YOU HAVE THE 30 YEAR BOND YIELD IN THE U.S. PUSHING TOWARDS, AGAIN, A MULTIYEAR HIGH. YOU HAVE THIS BOND OPTION ON A 20-YEAR COMING OUT THIS WEEK. YOU HAVE THIS VERY HIGH YIELD. THERE ARE FUTURES YIELD 1.7 PERCENT. WE ARE AT 1.6 8% ROUGHLY. WE HAVE TAKEN OUT THE RECENT LOW. WE HAVE ENTERED THIS LOWER RANGE ON THE CHINESE 10 YEAR. A COUPLE OF THINGS WATCH AS WE PAINT THE ECONOMIC PICTURE.
自1990年6月以来最高。中国其他一切都在朝相反的方向发展。美国30年期国债收益率再次推向多年高点。本周有一只20年期债券期权发行。收益率非常高。期货收益率1.7%。我们大约在1.68%。我们已经突破了近期低点。中国10年期国债已进入这个较低区间。在我们描绘经济图景时，有几件事值得关注。
YVONNE: YOU ARE RIGHT. THOSE YIELDS, YOU ARE RIGHT. THE HIGHEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE 1996. THAT IS ONE THING TO WATCH WHEN IT COMES TO THE 10 YEAR. THERE IS A TOP TWO-YEAR OPTION. THIS YIELD STEEPENING IS SORT OF GATHERING SOME MORE TRACTION AS WELL. GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN HEARING ABOUT THE FED RATE EXPECTATIONS, IT IS BEING RECALIBRATED. THE LONG END, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT NOT JUST THE FISCAL RESTRAINTS BUT ALSO WHEN IT COMES TO AI INVESTMENT BOOM AND THE LIKE THAT IS KEEPING THE LONG AND ELEVATED AS WELL.
伊冯：你说得对。那些收益率，你说得对。这是自1996年以来我们看到的最高水平。这是10年期国债值得关注的一点。还有一个两年期期权。这种收益率曲线陡峭化也在获得更多动力。鉴于我们听到的关于美联储利率预期的消息，它正在被重新校准。在长端，你不仅在谈论财政约束，还有人工智能投资热潮等，这些也在使长端收益率保持在高位。
COMING UP, WE TALK ABOUT SLOW DAYS AND ROBOTS. WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE ROBOT CONFERENCE IN BEIJING. JESSE LEWIS WILL BE JOINING US TO DISCUSS THE COMPANY'S POTENTIAL LISTING PLANS AND LOOKING TO SHOWCASE AT THE EVENT. AND LATER, THE HEAD OF CHINA INDUSTRIAL TECH AND RESEARCH, JACQUELINE DU JOINS US TO TALK ABOUT ROBOTICS EXPORTS. GLOBAL 3.0 IS THE NEXT THING TO WATCH. WE ARE COUNTING DOWN THE OPEN OF TRADE. THIS IS THE CHINA SHOW.
接下来，我们将讨论平淡的日子和机器人。我们将谈论在北京举行的机器人大会。杰西·刘易斯将加入我们，讨论公司潜在的上市计划，并期待在活动中展示。稍后，中国工业科技与研究负责人杰奎琳·杜将加入我们，谈论机器人出口。全球3.0是下一个值得关注的焦点。我们正在倒计时交易开盘。这里是《中国秀》。
HAPPY MONDAY. FUTURES ARE UP THIS MORNING. ♪ YVONNE: THE WORLD ROBOT CONFERENCE IN BEIJING STARTS THIS WEEK AND SO DOES INVESTOR APPETITE FOR INVESTOR AI COMPANIES. WE SEE THE RETAIL SECTION OF THE UPCOMING IPO IN SHANGHAI MORE THAN 5000 TIMES SUBSCRIBE. LET'S BRING IN ONE OF THE PARTICIPANTS OF THIS CONFERENCE, JESSE LIU JOINS US. TELL US ABOUT THE CONFERENCE ITSELF. WHAT DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO BE THE BIG THEME THIS YEAR?
周一快乐。今早期货上涨。♪ 伊冯：北京的世界机器人大会本周开幕，投资者对AI公司的兴趣也随之升温。我们看到上海即将进行的IPO零售部分超额认购超过5000倍。让我们请来本次大会的参与者之一，杰西·刘加入我们。请告诉我们大会本身的情况。你认为今年的大主题会是什么？
HOW IS IT DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS YEARS? JESSE: IT GETS BETTER EVERY YEAR, OBVIOUSLY. IT IT'S GOING TO BE EXCITING. I THINK MANIPULATION TASKS OPERATING IN SORT OF UNSTRUCTURED OPEN WORLD ENVIRONMENTS. SMALL LIVING ROOMS AND SMALL KITCHENS WILL BE THE THEME THIS
与往年相比有何不同？杰西：显然，每年都在进步。这将令人兴奋。我认为在非结构化的开放世界环境中执行操作任务，如小客厅和小厨房，将是今年的主题。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力