中东局势紧张油价持稳，全球加息预期升温
Massive Oil Spill Threatens Oman Coast | Horizons Middle East & Africa 8/17/2026
ABEER: GOOD MORNING, THIS IS "HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA." OUR TOP STORIES, LEBANON TENSIONS FLARE, ISRAEL LAUNCHES ITS DEADLIEST STRIKES IN MONTHS TARGETING HEZBOLLAH. IT ADDS PRESSURE TO ALREADY STALLED U.S.-IRAN NEGOTIATIONS. KEEPING GLOBAL OIL PRICES IN CHECK DESPITE THE IRAN WAR. GLOBAL RATE BETS SHIFT BEYOND THE FED. TRADERS PRIZE FASTER HIKES FROM TOKYO TO LONDON RAISING THE RISK OF PORTFOLIO LOSSES. I’M ABEER ABU OMAR IN DUE BUY.
阿比尔：早上好，这里是“中东与非洲视野”。今日头条，黎巴嫩紧张局势升级，以色列发动数月来最致命的打击，目标直指真主党。这给本已陷入僵局的美伊谈判增添了压力。尽管伊朗战争，全球油价仍保持稳定。全球利率预期转向美联储之外。交易员们从东京到伦敦押注更快的加息，这增加了投资组合损失的风险。我是阿比尔·阿布·奥马尔，在迪拜为您报道。
HAPPY MONDAY. -- DUBAI. HAPPY MONDAY. EVERYTHING IS IN THE GREEN. .1% HIGHER. INVESTORS ARE BRACING FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. WE KEEP AN EYE ON THE USUAL, AI, THE TECH TRADE AND THE GEOPOLITICS WITH THE MIDDLE EAST EAST SEEMS TO BE FLARING ONCE AGAIN. .2 LOWER, THE S&P 500 LAST WEEK. ASIAN EQUITIES, THE KOSPI IN SOUTH KOREA IS CLOSED TODAY AND INDONESIAN MARKETS ARE ALSO CLOSED FOR PUBLIC HOLIDAYS. ERICEN EQUITIES, .2% HIGHER.
周一快乐。——迪拜。周一快乐。一切都在上涨。上涨0.1%。投资者正在为本周的开始做准备。我们关注常规事项，人工智能、科技交易以及中东地缘政治，中东似乎再次爆发冲突。上周标普500指数下跌0.2%。亚洲股市，韩国KOSPI今日休市，印尼市场也因公共假日休市。欧洲股市上涨0.2%。
BRENT CRUDE PRICES ARE BARELY RISING THIS MORNING. TRADERS ARE BRACING FOR MORE CLARITY ONYCHIA WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THAT DEAL BETWEEN OMAN AND IRAN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN FOCUS, WHAT HAPPENS THERE AND THEN, OF COURSE, RENEWED STRIKES IN SOUTHERN LEBANON, KILLING PEOPLE. THE DEADLIEST STRIKES SINCE JUNE AND THEN THE YIELD ON THE 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTES IN THE UNITED STATES, ABOUT 2.68%. TWO BASIS POINTS LOWER AS OF NOW.
布伦特原油价格今早几乎持平。交易员们正在等待中东局势的更多明朗化。阿曼与伊朗之间的协议仍是焦点，那里的情况如何，然后当然还有黎巴嫩南部再次发生的袭击，造成人员伤亡。这是自6月以来最致命的袭击。美国10年期国债收益率约为2.68%，目前下降了两个基点。
THE U.S. DOLLAR IS UNDER PRESSURE AFTER THAT WEAK ECONOMIC DATA THAT REDUCED A RATE HIKE PROSPECT BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE. THE BLOOMBERG DOLLAR SPOT INDEX FELL TO LEVELS LAST SEEN IN MAY AND THEN OF COURSE WE’RE WATCHING THE TREASURY YIELDS ACROSS THE CURVE. THE YIELDS ON THOSE IS DROPPING THIS MORNING BUT STILL QUITE ELEVATED HISTORICALLY. FOR A DEEPER DIVE INTO WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ASIAN MARKETS THIS MORNING, WE HAVE WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG.
美元在疲弱的经济数据降低了美联储加息预期后承压。彭博美元现货指数跌至5月份以来的水平，然后我们当然在关注整个曲线上的国债收益率。这些收益率今早有所下降，但从历史来看仍处于相当高的水平。为了更深入了解今早亚洲市场的情况，我们连线香港的温妮·徐。
WINNIE? WINNIE: GOOD MORNING. WE ARE SEEING ASIAN STOCKS EDGING HIGHER TODAY SUPPORTED BY TECHNOLOGY SHARES AND THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER DOLLAR. TECH STOCKS ESPECIALLY IN HONG KONG LEADING GAINS BY MORE THAN 2% WITH KOREAN MARKET ON A HOLIDAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE, A BIT MORE WEAKNESS WITH JAPAN’S BROADER TOPIX INDEX AND THAT IS AFTER THE LATEST G.D.P. NUMBERS SHOWED AN UNEXPECTED SLOWDOWN IN THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC GROWTH, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO NET AND CONSUMPTION.
温妮？温妮：早上好。我们看到亚洲股市今日小幅走高，受到科技股和美元略微走弱的支撑。科技股，尤其是香港的科技股，涨幅超过2%，韩国市场因假日休市。另一方面，日本更广泛的东证指数则略显疲软，此前最新GDP数据显示该国经济增长意外放缓，尤其是在净出口和消费方面。
FOR NOW WE’RE SEEING THE JAPANESE YEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER GOING CLOSER TO THAT 159 LEVEL AGAINST THE DOLLAR. WE PREVIEW CHINA’S ECHO RELEASE EXPECTED LATER TODAY, ABOUT THREE HOURS. OVERALL THIS LATEST DATA IS LIKELY GOING TO CONFIRM THAT TREND OF THE MOMENTUM IN THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN. WE HAVE RETAIL SALES HERE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS MONTH WE ARE EXPECTING. HOWEVER, WHEN IT COCKS TO THE OTHER INDEXES, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION OR PROPERTY INVESTMENT, ALL EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN COMPARED TO.
目前我们看到日元兑美元略有走强，逼近159水平。我们预计中国今天稍后约三小时后发布的ECHO数据。总体而言，这一最新数据很可能将确认经济增长动能放缓的趋势。我们预计零售销售仅略高于上月。然而，当涉及其他指数，如工业产出或房地产投资时，预计均将较上月放缓。
PREVIOUS MONTH. WE’RE LIKELY TO SEE THOSE NUMBERS COMING NEW THROUGH IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ABEER: WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG AND WE’LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THOSE DISCLOSURES OUT OF CHINA. OIL PRICES ARE CLIMBING AS TENSIONS INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST. AS U.S.-IRAN NEGOTIATIONS REMAIN STALLED ASK WASHINGTON PREPARES FOR FRESH ECONOMIC MEASURES AGAINST IRAN. WE’RE JOINED BY BLOOMBERG’S EXECUTIVE EDITOR FOR THE MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA AND RUSSIA.
我们可能在几小时后看到这些数字公布。ABEER：香港的WINNIE HSU，我们将关注中国发布的数据。随着中东紧张局势加剧，油价攀升。美伊谈判仍陷僵局，华盛顿准备对伊朗实施新的经济措施。我们邀请到彭博社中东、北非和俄罗斯执行编辑。
DAN, I WANT TO START WITH YOU BECAUSE THE LATEST IS HAPPENING FROM YOUR SIDE OF TOWN. WHAT IS THE LATEST WE KNOW ON THE LATEST ISRAELI ATTACKS ON LEBANON, THE SOUTHERN PART, KILLING A COMMANDER IN HEZBOLLAH? DAN: GOOD MORNING. YES, MUCH TENSION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ON AN INCIDENT IN WHICH A HEZBOLLAH COMMANDER WAS KILL ISRAEL SAYS ALONG WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF CIVILIANS. THERE HAVE BEEN CIVILIAN CASUALTIES ALL ALONG IN LEBANON IN THIS CONFLICT.
DAN，我想先请你谈谈，因为最新消息来自你那边。关于以色列最近对黎巴嫩南部的袭击，打死真主党一名指挥官，我们目前知道哪些最新情况？DAN：早上好。是的，紧张局势主要集中在一次事件上，以色列称一名真主党指挥官连同大量平民被打死。在这场冲突中，黎巴嫩一直有平民伤亡。
ISRAEL ACCUSING HEZBOLLAH OF USING CITIZENS AS YIELDS. THEY KILLED N NOT ANTICIPATE THAT SPECIFIC NUMBER OF PEOPLE TO BE IN THE LINE OF FIRE. HOWEVER, THEY FIRED BACK, AN ATTACK WOUNDING THREE ISRAELI SOLDIERS. A FAIRLY TATTERED CEASE-FIRE LARGELY ON PAPER BUT ONE THAT HAS ALLOWED BOTH SIDES TO CONTINUE FIGHTING. HOWEVER, IRANIANS WILL SEIZE ON THIS INCIDENT TO STOKE THEIR OWN DEMAND THAT ANY RENEWED DEAL WITH THE UNITED STATES INCLUDE A CEASE-FIRE AND END OF HOSTILITIES ON OTHER FRONT, SPECIFICALLY ISRAELI AND HAMAS, THEIR ALLY IN THE GAZA STRIP.
以色列指责真主党利用平民作为盾牌。他们并未预料到会有那么多人处于火线之中。然而，他们进行了还击，一次袭击打伤了三名以色列士兵。停火协议相当脆弱，基本停留在纸面上，但双方仍继续战斗。然而，伊朗人将利用这一事件来推动他们的要求，即与美国达成的任何新协议都必须包括停火，并结束其他战线上的敌对行动，特别是以色列与其盟友哈马斯在加沙地带的冲突。
ABEER: SO MUCH IS HAPPENING ON SO MANY FRONT. WE HAVE THE ECONOMIC ISOLATION, ATTACKS IN LEBANON AND THE GAZA SITUATION. WHAT DOES THIS WHOLE THING MEAN TO THE WIDENING PARAMETERS OF THE WAR IN THE REGION AND THEN THE WILDER NEGOTIATIONS, OF COURSE? STUART: I THINK THE ATTENTION FOR NOW IS STILL FOCUSED ON HORMUZ, NOT TO SAY THE OTHER THEATERS ARE NOT IMPORTANT BUT I THINK THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS CONCERNED, PARTICULARLY THE U.S.
ABEER：多条战线同时发生太多事情。我们有经济孤立、黎巴嫩袭击和加沙局势。这一切对地区战争范围的扩大以及更广泛的谈判意味着什么？STUART：我认为目前注意力仍集中在霍尔木兹海峡，不是说其他战场不重要，但我认为全球经济关注的是，特别是美国。
ECONOMY IS CONCERNED. HORMUZ IS FIRST AND FOREMOST THE THING THAT NEEDS TO GET SORTED OUT AND EVERYTHING ELSE CAN GET LOOKED AUTO AT. IRAN AND OMAN SAY THEY’RE NEARING A DEAL. WE’VE BEEN HEARING THAT NOW FOR THE BETTER PART OF TWO WEEKS. THAT DOES NEED TO BE RESOLVED FIRST. ABEER: DAN, WHY DO YOU THINK ISRAEL HAS CHOSEN TO INTENSIFY ITS STRIKES NOW WHEN IT’S BEEN QUIET FOR THE GOOD PART OF THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS? DAN: IT MAY HAVE BEEN OPERATIONAL OPPORTUNITY OR NECESSITY.
经济问题令人担忧。霍尔木兹海峡首先且最重要的是需要解决的事情，其他一切都可以稍后审视。伊朗和阿曼表示他们接近达成协议。我们已经听说了将近两周。那确实需要首先解决。阿比尔：丹，你认为以色列为什么选择现在加强打击，而过去几个月大部分时间都很平静？丹：可能是作战机会或必要性。
IT’S ALWAYS POSSIBLE THAT HEZBOLLAH AND LEBANON AND HAMAS IN GAZA ARE USING CEASE-FIRES ARE RENEWED INTERNATIONAL POSITION IN ORDER TO RENEW THEIR OWN POSITION. ISRAELIS REFERRED TO THAT ATTACK THAT WOUNDED THREE OF THEIR SOLDIERS AS A PROVOCATION HERE. HOWEVER, THEY ARE AWARE THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED U.S. NEED TO FIND SOME SORT OF ACCOMMODATION WITH IRAN IF NOT OUTRIGHT VICTORY. SOMETHING AS STUART NOTED THAT WILL REOPEN HORMUZ.
真主党、黎巴嫩以及加沙的哈马斯总是有可能利用停火和更新的国际立场来重振自身地位。以色列人将那次导致三名士兵受伤的袭击称为挑衅。然而，他们意识到美国日益需要与伊朗找到某种和解，即使不是彻底胜利。正如斯图尔特所指出的，这将重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。
THIS WILL ONLY SERVE AS REINFORCEMENT, WHETHER DELIBERATE OR NOT OF THE ISRAELIS’ INTENT TO STAY PUT FOR NOW UNTIL HEZBOLLAH IS DISARMED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. ABEER: WHEN WE WERE PREPPING FOR THIS, OIL PRICES WERE FLUCTUATING IN THE GRAY AND NOW THEY’RE QUITE FLAT, $8 ON THE BARREL. WE’VE ALSO REPORTED ABOUT COVERT OPERATIONS IN HORMUZ. HOW TO KEEP OIL PRICES IN CHECK. WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THOSE PRICES AND WHAT ELSE DO WE KNOW ABOUT THAT STORY FROM THE BLOOMBERG NEWS TEAM ABOUT THE OPERATIONS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ?
这只会强化以色列人的意图，无论是有意还是无意，即暂时按兵不动，直到真主党以某种方式解除武装。阿比尔：在我们准备这次节目时，油价在灰色区间波动，现在相当平稳，每桶8美元。我们还报道了霍尔木兹的隐蔽行动。如何控制油价。关于这些价格走势，以及彭博新闻团队关于通过霍尔木兹海峡行动的报道，我们了解什么？
STUART: NUMBER ONE, THERE ARE OPERATIONS TO GET BARRELS THROUGH HORMUZ PLUS THERE ARE DIVERSIONS THEY’RE ABLE TO TAKE ACROSS TO THE RED SEA FROM SAUDI ARABIA AND ALL OF THAT IS PRODUCING MILLIONS OF BARRELS. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE EQUATION, A BIG CLIMBDOWN BY CHINA ON PURCHASING. $88 IS STILL SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WHERE THEY WOULD BE IN NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG SUPPLY BUT ITLESSENS SOME OF THE EXTREME PREDICTIONINGS AT THE START OF THE WAR.
斯图尔特：第一，有行动让石油通过霍尔木兹海峡，此外他们还能从沙特阿拉伯绕道到红海，所有这些都在产出数百万桶石油。在等式的另一边，中国大幅减少了购买。88美元仍然显著高于正常情况下的水平。存在大量供应的潜力，但这减轻了战争初期的一些极端预测。
SOME OUTLETS WERE SAYING OIL WAS GOING TO BE -- 150, $200 A BARREL. ABEER: THANK YOU BOTH. FOR A LOOK AT SOME OF THE OTHER STORIES THIS MORNING. PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS DIRECTED THE PENTAGON TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE JOINT MILITARY EXERCISES WITH SOUTH KOREA WHILE PRAISING NORTH KOREAN LEADER KIM JONG-UN. HE SAID THE COSTLY DRILLS WERE AN INAPPROPRIATE SIGNAL TO SOUTH KOREA. HE ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH KOREA DECLINING HIS REQUEST FOR SUPPORT IN THE IRAN WAR AND ISRAEL’S ECONOMY REBOUNDED IN THE SECOND QUARTER, RECOVERING FROM A CONTRACTION SPARKED BY THE WAR WITH IRAN.
一些媒体曾预测油价将达到每桶150美元甚至200美元。阿比尔：谢谢两位。接下来看看今晨的其他新闻。特朗普总统已指示五角大楼大幅减少与韩国的联合军事演习，同时赞扬朝鲜领导人金正恩。他表示，这些昂贵的演习是对韩国发出的不恰当信号。他还提到，韩国拒绝了他对伊朗战争支持的要求，而以色列经济在第二季度反弹，从与伊朗战争引发的萎缩中恢复过来。
G.D.P. EXPANDED AT AN ANNUALIZED RATE OF 15.4%, ALMOST DOUBLE EXPECT FRUSTRATIONS. COMING UP, GLOBAL IMBALANCES CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE’LL DISCUSS THE DRIVING FORCES WITH THE SENIOR ECONOMIST FOR EMERGING ASIA. THAT IS COMING UP NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ABEER: WELCOME BACK TO HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA. THE DOLLAR IS IN FOCUS AFTER SOFT U.S. ECONOMIC DATA SIGNALED CONSUMERS PULLED BACK ON PURCHASES IN JULY. THIS COMES AS TRADERS REDUCE BETS ON A FED HIKE NEXT MONTH.
国内生产总值年化增长率达到15.4%，几乎是预期的两倍。接下来，全球失衡继续加剧。我们将与新兴亚洲高级经济学家讨论驱动因素。接下来请继续关注。这里是彭博社。阿比尔：欢迎回到《中东与非洲视野》。在美国经济数据疲软，显示消费者在7月份减少购买后，美元成为焦点。与此同时，交易员减少了对美联储下月加息的押注。
JOIN US NOW TO DISCUSS ALL THIS IS SENIOR ECONOMY FOR EMERGING ASIA IS TRINH NGUYEN. WHAT ARE WE SEEING OUT OF THE FED AND THE TIGHTENING EXPECTATIONS FROM GLOBAL BANKS FROM TOKYO TO LONDON? WHAT ARE THE RISKS OF A DIVERGENCE IN CONDUCTING THIS MONETARY POLICY?
现在加入我们讨论这一切的是新兴亚洲高级经济学家郑阮。我们看到了美联储以及从东京到伦敦的全球银行收紧预期的什么情况？在实施这种货币政策时，分歧的风险是什么？
OBVIOUSLY THE MARKET IS VERY CONFUSED ON WHAT IT'S GOING TO DO BUT IT'S INCREASINGLY CONVINCED IT'S GOING
显然，市场对它将采取什么行动感到非常困惑，但越来越确信它将
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力