Anthropic IPO 前被热炒：2028 年收入预测 2000 亿美元
The hyping of Anthropic’s IPO
Sources say
据消息人士透露
I am watching something fascinating unfolding in real time. Anthropic is in an SEC-monitored “quiet period” before its IPO (expected sometime in the fall), somewhat limiting its communications (though not entirely; Amodei discussed governance matters on X yesterday, a rare appearance there for him, and the company continues to report on safety issues and so on). But that hasn’t stopped leakers and generative AI bulls from trying to convince audiences that Anthropic’s finances are spectacular.
我正在实时目睹一件引人入胜的事情发生。Anthropic正处于其IPO（预计在秋季某个时候）前的美国证券交易委员会监控的“静默期”，这在一定程度上限制了其沟通（尽管并非完全限制；Amodei昨天在X上讨论了治理问题，这是他罕见的一次露面，公司也继续报告安全问题等）。但这并未阻止泄密者和生成式AI的乐观者试图让观众相信Anthropic的财务状况非常出色。
Aside from the Friday Reuters report above in which Anthropic is said to be “projecting 2028 revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion”, based of course on undisclosed math, “according to two [unnamed] people familiar with the company's financials”, we also heard yesterday about how amazing their Q2 was (further details below), by way of documents that were leaked to Bloomberg News. Anthropic may be “quiet”, but its fans are not.
除了上述周五路透社的报道，称Anthropic“预计2028年营收约为1900亿至2000亿美元”，当然这是基于未公开的计算，“据两位（未具名的）熟悉公司财务状况的人士透露”，我们昨天还通过泄露给彭博新闻的文件听到了他们的第二季度表现有多出色（详情见下文）。Anthropic可能“沉默”，但它的粉丝们并不沉默。
Moreover, in a Friday All-In podcast interview, Gavin Baker claimed that Anthropic was making money on every token. A couple weeks earlier the prominent podcaster Dwarkesh Patel projected (in a claim he partly walked back, see below) that “Anthropic likely ends the year with ~$100-150B of revenue”
此外，在周五的All-In播客采访中，Gavin Baker声称Anthropic在每一个令牌上都赚钱。几周前，知名播客主持人Dwarkesh Patel预测（他部分收回了这一说法，见下文）“Anthropic很可能以约1000亿至1500亿美元的年收入结束今年”。
Below, I dissect these claims and explain what’s been left out.
下面，我将剖析这些说法，并解释其中遗漏了什么。
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