美联储内部利率辩论面临新审视
Fed’s Internal Rate Debate Faces New Scrutiny
This week, we'll get a detailed look into the thinking of the Federal Reserve when it comes to its latest interest rate decision. Minutes from last month's FOMC meeting will be released, Carol, on Wednesday. Yeah. A lot of questions coming off of the press press conferences, right, with the Fed chair. Hey. Last month's decision not to raise rates saw a rare descent from three regional bank presidents. Well, joining us right now to make some sense out of it all is Jennifer Lee.
本周，我们将深入了解美联储对其最新利率决策的思考。上个月FOMC会议的纪要将于周三公布，卡罗尔。是的。在美联储主席的新闻发布会上有很多问题，对吧。上个月决定不加息，三位地区联储银行行长罕见地投了反对票。现在，我们请来了詹妮弗·李，帮我们理清这一切。
She's senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. Jennifer, good to have you here with us. This is a focal point in this new era of the US central bank. What are you watching out for when it comes to the FOMC minutes? Well, good morning, and thanks for having me on. You know, it's it'd be very interesting to see how much of a I'm gonna use that air quotes here by the good family fight really took place behind the scenes.
她是BMO资本市场的资深经济学家。詹妮弗，欢迎你来到我们节目。这是美国央行新时代的一个焦点。对于FOMC会议纪要，你关注的是什么？嗯，早上好，谢谢邀请我。你知道，看看这场“友好的家庭争吵”（我这里用引号）在幕后到底发生了多少，会非常有趣。
I would love to be a fly on the wall on that front. And this will be an interesting one because, you know, this is, like, the second meeting that that Fed chair, Marsha, chaired over. The first one, everyone was unanimous unanimously behind him supporting him on the decision to stay the course. And then the second one, boom, three dissenters. So it'll be very interesting to see what kind of discussion went on behind the scenes.
我很想成为墙上的苍蝇，亲眼看看。这会很有趣，因为你知道，这是美联储主席马歇尔主持的第二次会议。第一次会议上，所有人都一致支持他维持现状的决定。然后第二次，砰，三位反对者。所以，看看幕后进行了什么样的讨论会非常有趣。
And then, of course, how much of it will heat up in the coming months as as well, just given all the mixed data that we've seen of late. We've seen a big move in interest rates, and there was, quite the freak out in the markets following, the most recent meeting that we'll be reading into in these, minutes. Jennifer, when's the ten year gonna hit 5%? Oh, that's a great question. I wouldn't be surprised if it's, you know, sooner rather than later just given the upward pressure.
然后，当然，考虑到我们最近看到的混合数据，未来几个月会有多少升温。我们看到了利率的大幅变动，而在最近一次会议之后，市场出现了相当程度的恐慌，我们将在这些会议纪要中读到这些。詹妮弗，十年期国债收益率什么时候会达到5%？哦，这是个好问题。考虑到上行压力，如果它很快达到，我不会感到惊讶。
Yeah. Just given the upward pressure that we've seen overall, like, worldwide as well. Just, you know, more demand, I think, for just to spend more as well. So, anyway, we're gonna have to see how that fares, and see what other, banks around the world are are doing as well in terms of what their holdings or treasuries are. You know, China has been ramping them down or, rating them lower, I guess. You know? So, I mean, again, it's all gonna depend on how you know, what other central banks are doing, what other economies are doing, and what inflation expectations are doing around the world as well.
是的。考虑到我们整体上看到的全球范围内的上行压力。你知道，我认为，更多的需求，也想要花更多的钱。所以，无论如何，我们得看看情况如何，以及世界其他银行在持有或评级国债方面的做法。你知道，中国一直在减持或下调评级，我想。所以，我的意思是，这都取决于你知道，其他央行在做什么，其他经济体在做什么，以及世界各地的通胀预期如何。
So, you know, the thing that has kind of freaked out investors, freaked out everybody who watches the Fed is that we're not getting that, you know, forward guidance. Right? So called forward guidance when it comes to interest rates. So what do you look at specifically to get an idea of where rates are headed? It's gonna have to be back to the data. And it's interesting, you know, when you mentioned mentioning the forward guidance because, you know, a lot of the central bankers now are very low to release any of their of their of their of their thinking too much.
所以，你知道，让投资者、让所有关注美联储的人感到恐慌的是，我们没有得到那种前瞻性指引，对吧？所谓的利率前瞻性指引。那么，你具体看什么来了解利率走向呢？那就必须回到数据上来。而且有趣的是，你知道，当你提到前瞻性指引时，因为现在很多央行行长都非常不愿意过多透露他们的想法。
But then you've got other, you know, policymakers on those committees that are quite happily, you know, speaking to everybody that would wanna listen about what they're thinking of. And so it's very confusing. So I can totally see some of the the the efforts to clamp down on those communications. But it's gonna be be all back down to the data. And it can't be just one piece of data, one data release like the non farm payrolls report.
但是，你还有那些委员会里的其他政策制定者，他们很乐意跟所有想听的人谈论他们的想法。所以这很令人困惑。因此，我完全理解那些试图限制这些沟通的努力。但最终还是要回到数据上来。而且不能只看一项数据，比如非农就业报告。
Mhmm. Because we know that the surveys, the respondents are a lot less than what they used to be. You know, it used to be, like, 90% response rate. Now we're, like, 70% or so. So you have to look at the whole gamut of of data releases to make sure that they're all telling the same story. And, of course, it can't be just one month because we know that one month doesn't make a trend. It's gotta be, like, at least two, ideally three months before we can see some sort of idea or have some sort of sense of which way, you know, policy is gonna be leaning.
嗯。因为我们知道，调查的回复率比以前低多了。你知道，以前回复率大概是90%。现在只有70%左右。所以你必须看所有的数据发布，以确保它们都讲述同一个故事。而且，当然，不能只看一个月，因为我们知道一个月不能构成趋势。至少要看两个月，理想情况下是三个月，我们才能对政策可能偏向哪个方向有一些想法或感觉。
Jennifer, what do you think the Fed needs to do when it comes to interest rates? And and take us out through the meetings for the rest of the year and maybe into early next year. We help. Wanna hear this. Investors wanna be forward looking, like, not backward looking. We know what you did already. Right? That's a year. So we even within within BMO, you know, we have a lot of debate within, you know, all the all the the economists and the strategists as well as as opposed to which way rates should be leaning.
詹妮弗，你认为美联储在利率方面需要做什么？带我们看看今年剩余时间的会议，也许还有明年初的。我们想听这个。投资者希望有前瞻性，而不是后顾之忧。我们知道你已经做了什么，对吧？那已经过去了。所以即使在BMO内部，你知道，我们有很多经济学家和策略师之间的辩论，关于利率应该偏向哪个方向。
And, you know, officially, are calling for the Fed to do absolutely nothing for at least the next stretch because there's so much noise going on, and I think they can afford to be patient. So we don't look for any moves until probably the last quarter of twenty twenty seven and that we're leaning towards a cut at that point. Wow. We are open to interpretation. We're open to changing our minds because as the data change, you know, we're not gonna be we're not married to this.
而且，你知道，官方上，他们呼吁美联储至少在接下来一段时间内完全按兵不动，因为现在噪音太多，我认为他们可以保持耐心。所以我们预计在2027年第四季度之前不会有任何动作，届时我们倾向于降息。哇。我们对解读持开放态度。我们也愿意改变想法，因为随着数据变化，你知道，我们不会固执己见。
Right? Like, completely So the next move by the Fed is not even an increase. It's a cut later in for another, like, woah, when you're out. You know? So so much could happen. Because the economic cycle's coming undone? Like, are you using more recession? I think rates are still in a in a more restrictive level right now, they can see some easing coming in. And, of course, you know, there there is something to that AI story that's gonna, you know, decrease inflation.
对吧？就像，完全如此。所以美联储的下一次动作甚至不是加息，而是更晚的降息，比如，哇，当你出局的时候。你知道？所以很多事情都可能发生。因为经济周期正在瓦解？比如，你更倾向于认为会出现衰退吗？我认为目前利率仍处于限制性水平，他们可以看到一些宽松政策即将到来。当然，你知道，AI的故事也有一定道理，它会降低通胀。
Maybe not right away, but eventually will put lower pressure on inflation as well. So, again, very patient, long long ways out. You know, it's it's sort of hard to sort of defend this call, you know, especially when you're seeing upward pressure in place in oil still. Yeah. You know, not not as high as it once was, you know, but, you know, there is a risk. If there's a risk, it's going to be either staying still for longer or, you know, obviously, there's a risk of rate hikes.
也许不会立刻见效，但最终也会对通胀产生下行压力。所以，再次强调，非常耐心，还有很长的路要走。你知道，这个预测有点难以辩护，尤其是当你看到油价仍有上行压力时。是的。你知道，虽然不像以前那么高，但你知道，存在风险。如果有风险，那要么是维持现状更久，要么，显然，存在加息的风险。
So right now, I think everything is on the table, but, basically, the story is that they're gonna be patient. They're not gonna do anything, and there's it's still a whole year out before, you know, any moves are made and so much can happen in that span. Well, how are you looking at oil, Jennifer? Have we absorbed $80 to $85 as the new normal, or is there a longer term if this war continues indefinitely, longer term corrosive effect that an eight handle will have on the economy?
所以现在，我认为一切皆有可能，但基本上，情况是他们将保持耐心。他们不会采取任何行动，而且距离任何动作还有整整一年的时间，在这段时间里可能发生很多事情。那么，詹妮弗，你怎么看石油？我们已经把80到85美元视为新常态了吗，还是说如果这场战争无限期持续下去，80多美元的价格会对经济产生更长期的腐蚀性影响？
So I was actually kinda surprised that it hasn't been higher than that. You know? And I think some of that can go back to China. The fact that China hasn't been using as much, you know, they've been drawing on their own reserves. You know, they bought up a lot of oil when it was still cheaper. You know? And then there are also, you know, there's you know, because the economy is slowing over there as well, so there's less demand for oil.
所以实际上我有点惊讶油价没有涨得更高。你知道？我认为部分原因可以归咎于中国。中国没有使用那么多石油，你知道，他们一直在动用本国储备。你知道，他们在油价更便宜的时候买了很多。你知道？而且还有，你知道，因为那里的经济也在放缓，所以对石油的需求减少了。
At the same time, they're using a lot more other things besides oil. Like, you know, when they're driving, they're using their EVs. Yeah. So that has certainly helped keep a lid on inflate on on oil prices. And, of course, there is still movement going through the Strait Of Hormuz. It's just a lot slower than it once was. Stays at this level, though, can we continue to absorb this? I think there are everyone's gonna adapt.
与此同时，他们除了石油之外还使用了更多其他东西。比如，你知道，当他们开车时，他们使用的是电动汽车。是的。所以这确实有助于抑制油价上涨。当然，仍然有船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。只是比过去慢了很多。但如果保持在这个水平，我们能继续承受吗？我认为每个人都会适应。
Right? I think what this is what something we should always remember is that even though things are all of a sudden, you know, higher than they were once were or lower than they once were, the economies, the, you know, the the country, consumers, businesses will adapt to that new normal. They will shift. Mhmm. So I think, you know, we we can handle it. We've got about, you know, $80 or 70, maybe at the high seventies, average, forecast for the next couple years, you know, higher than once was.
对吧？我认为我们应该始终记住的是，即使事情突然变得比以前更高或更低，经济体、国家、消费者、企业都会适应这种新常态。他们会转变。嗯。所以我认为，你知道，我们能应对。我们预计未来几年平均油价在70到80美元之间，可能接近80美元，你知道，比以前更高。
But at least, you know, we're not seeing over a $100 oil. Mm-mm. So, Jennifer, you talked about you know, we've heard this a lot, the family fight within the US Central Bank by, Fed chair Kevin Walsh. T
但至少，你知道，我们没有看到油价超过100美元。嗯。所以，詹妮弗，你谈到了，你知道，我们经常听到这个，美国中央银行内部的家庭争斗，由美联储主席凯文·沃尔什主导。
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