伊朗谅解备忘录到期，外交途径仍存
Diplomacy Still in Play as Iran MOU Expires
I last one cared about deadlines. None of this is funny because lives are impacted, regions are impacted. But you know, where do we stand in this conflict from your perspective? The expression of the muse sounds dramatic. I don't think we're going to see a resumption of a shooting war. That's not what the expiration of this document means. This was effectively a framework document that had two major objectives, one in the immediate future, immediately upon its signing, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and then more aspiration down the line, a discussion about framework for a long term agreement to resolve this war.
我最后一次关心截止日期。这些都不好笑，因为生命受到影响，地区受到影响。但你知道，从你的角度来看，我们在这场冲突中处于什么位置？缪斯的表达听起来很戏剧化。我不认为我们会看到战火重燃。这不是这份文件到期意味着的。这实际上是一份框架文件，有两个主要目标，一个是在近期，即签署后立即重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，然后更远期的目标是讨论解决这场战争的长期协议框架。
Obviously, one that would have had to deal with issues including, um, Iran's nuclear program and the like. As you noted, the cease fire, the efforts to open up Hormuz crumbled really within days and devolved within, I think, three weeks into a significant flare up of fighting between the US and Iran. I think what we'll have with the expiration tomorrow of this MOU is both sides potentially hinting that conditions on the ground, such as they were assessed in the absence of something new.
显然，这个协议必须处理包括伊朗核计划等问题。正如你所指出的，停火和开放霍尔木兹海峡的努力在几天内就崩溃了，并在我认为三周内演变成美国和伊朗之间的重大冲突。我认为随着明天这份谅解备忘录到期，双方都可能暗示，在没有新协议的情况下，实地情况如他们所评估的那样。
Pakistan, the mediator said some days ago, claimed that the parties had decided on a de facto extension of that MoU that was denied most volubly by Iran. And it's worth remembering that in the interim, we've had these talks involving Oman about some kind of peaceable power sharing. If you like, property share for the hammer is in terms of directions of access and egress. Iran says those talks continue. In fact, it says the US isn't involved.
巴基斯坦调解人几天前声称，各方已决定事实上延长该谅解备忘录，但伊朗最强烈地否认了这一点。值得记住的是，在此期间，我们进行了涉及阿曼的关于某种和平权力分享的会谈。如果你愿意，可以说在进出方向方面，锤子的财产份额。伊朗说这些会谈仍在继续。事实上，它说美国没有参与。
The United States says it has been involved and a man who serves as a mediator. So there is an overarching or should we say, a backdrop mechanism still ongoing. I think what Trump doesn't want, what he would like obviously, is victory, an Iranian capitulation that doesn't look likely at all to happen. He certainly does not want a US capitulation at this time so close to the US midterms. And as you know, said the US administration, looking at an economic alternative to a shooting war campaign or a primarily combat driven campaign.
美国说它参与了，并且有一个人担任调解人。所以有一个总体的，或者我们应该说，一个背景机制仍在进行中。我认为特朗普不想要的，他显然想要的是胜利，即伊朗投降，但这看起来根本不可能发生。他当然不希望在美国中期选举如此临近之际美国投降。如你所知，美国政府正在考虑一种经济替代方案，而不是一场射击战或主要依靠战斗的战役。
Not that we ever really stop shooting, Daniel. We talk about the MoU and the ceasefire, but it's been punctuated by skirmishes. And even in the last couple of days, more ships have come under attack in the Strait of Hormuz. The UK maritime trade operations on Saturday said it heard about a projectile hitting the hull of a bolt carrier. Two Abu Dhabi national oil vessels hit on Thursday, another hit on Friday evening.
并不是说我们真的停止过射击，丹尼尔。我们谈论谅解备忘录和停火，但期间一直有小规模冲突。即使在最近几天，霍尔木兹海峡又有更多船只遭到袭击。英国海上贸易行动周六表示，他们听说有炮弹击中了散货船船体。周四有两艘阿布扎比国家石油公司的船只被击中，周五晚上又有一艘被击中。
What we're hearing, though, is that the president wants to take an economic approach that we won't see a lot of more deliberate, all out fighting, and that this week, as the Treasury secretary warned, we'd get the one two punch in. What does Iran and what does Israel expect that will include Israel? It's worth noting there is some common wisdom out there suggesting that to now I would be happy to see a resumption of the war that's not borne out by public statements or Israel's own concerns, both economic and its own election coming up just two months away.
然而，我们听到的是，总统想要采取经济手段，我们不会看到更多蓄意的、全面的战斗，而且本周，正如财政部长警告的那样，我们会受到双重打击。伊朗和以色列期望这会包括以色列什么？值得注意的是，有一种普遍看法认为，到现在，我很乐意看到战争恢复，但这并没有得到公开声明或以色列自身关切的证实，无论是经济上的，还是距离仅两个月的大选。
What Israeli officials have been saying increasingly over recent weeks is they believe that Iran is on the precipice of a major internal collapse economically. They would like to see a continuation of that US led pressure on Iran. They're observing long term trends. For example, some major Gulf players looking at creating their own alternative exit points for their energy exports. Given Iran's de facto control over much of Hormuz, these really seem fairly sanguine about the possibility of an Iranian economic collapse.
以色列官员近几周越来越多地表示，他们认为伊朗正处于经济重大崩溃的边缘。他们希望看到美国继续对伊朗施压。他们正在观察长期趋势。例如，一些主要海湾国家正在考虑为其能源出口建立自己的替代出口点。鉴于伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡大部分地区的实际控制，这些国家似乎对伊朗经济崩溃的可能性相当乐观。
That might not be them. Um, crying uncle, as Trump would put it. However, it may make them more open to a diplomatic agreement here, perhaps one involving them surrendering what remains of their nuclear program. I think everyone realizes now, in the six months of this war that I imagine, and this is pretty much borne out by what we heard at the outset, that both Israel and the United States would last no more than six weeks.
那可能不是他们。嗯，用特朗普的话说，认输。然而，这可能使他们更愿意接受外交协议，也许包括放弃其剩余核计划的协议。我想现在每个人都意识到，在这场战争的六个月里，我猜想，而且这几乎从一开始我们就听到的那样，以色列和美国都撑不过六周。
It's now and it's six months. There is an understanding that regime change, which was a downstream hope by the allies that would result from the um, military campaigns that will not happen. Absent an invasion of a US force, presumably boots on the ground or also on the ground, an organic uprising by Iranian dissidents, opposition figures? Well, eight months ago, the Iranian regime brutally put down what was then a sweeping set of protests.
现在是六个月。人们理解到，政权更迭，这是盟友们的下游希望，将源于军事行动，但这不会发生。除非美军入侵，大概需要地面部队，或者伊朗持不同政见者、反对派人物自发起义？嗯，八个月前，伊朗政权残酷镇压了当时席卷全国的一系列抗议活动。
It doesn't appear that a protest movement or an anti-government movement is likely to arise with the sort of muscle required to change the regime. So I think everyone now is looking at changing regime calculations by making it intolerable to make to to maintain normal living in Iran under what would appear to be an increasing set of U.S. led sanctions.
看起来不太可能出现一场有足够力量改变政权的抗议运动或反政府运动。因此，我认为现在所有人都在考虑通过使伊朗在日益增多的美国主导制裁下维持正常生活变得难以忍受，来改变政权的算计。
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