伊朗压力无明确出路：美前官员与将领讨论制裁与军事选项

Iran already subject to a naval blockade, thousands of sanctions since 1979, and joining us now is former deputy assistant secretary of state in the Biden administration, Gina Govzino, alongside retired vice admiral Robert Harward, who is also a former CENTCOM deputy commander. It's great to have you both with us. Commander, I'm gonna start with you this morning with the latest that's coming out of Iran and no breakthroughs.

In fact, the latest reporting from Axios would suggest that The US is still even trying to figure out who to talk to. We're asking all of our guests, is this a forever war? I don't think it's a forever war, but the pressure will be increased on Iran. Negotiations, the MOUs, the ceasefires have gone nowhere as anything has with Iran in the last forty seven years. So in this case, they're really gonna ratchet up the economic sanctions, which is a very sound strategy.

So while we've frozen assets, will we seize those assets, will we go after Chinese banks or helping deals Yeah. Will we go after the ghost fleets? There's all sorts of options they can do to increase the pressure on Iran, and I think that's what you're gonna see in the next few days. Jen, come on in on this and weigh in on the same thing that we've been talking about this idea, this concept of this being a forever war.

How do you see it? So we certainly right now are in what seems to be a stalemate with the miss you know, maximum pressure campaign on Iran version two, very similar to what the first Trump administration tried. Certainly is an effective tool, but it's not a strategy in and of itself, nor does it show any sign of changing, Iran's calculus in the negotiations. And so while this may not be forever, there certainly doesn't seem to be an off ramp to it at the moment.

Well, Jen, the story, just out from Axios, Barack Ravito reporting that it has been so difficult for US negotiators to determine if they're talking to the right people, if they're in fact talking with actual representatives of the regime. The Trump administration took the very unconventional move to reach out directly to IRGC leadership. Does this not underscore the foundational problem in finding peace? So first of all, this assertion that we don't know who we're talking to Yeah.

There have always been different power centers in Iran. Mhmm. That has always been a challenge, and that continues to be a challenge. Even more so today because, of course, we we changed that calculus when we decided to eliminate the supreme leader, the former supreme leader. And so this is largely a problem of our own making, but I would note that we have experts that do understand the Iranian regime and how it operates.

The Trump administration is not necessarily relying on those people at the moment. But, sure, this this has gotten more challenging as those competing power centers in this new newly constructed regime are are jockeying for power and and have very different views on whether or not to end this conflict at all. Admiral, I am curious, and I think, in some of the conversations we had yesterday that ultimately what we need to see is, is it the president speaking with someone very senior, the leaders in Iran?

Like, does it need to get to that level to actually make this war, this conflict, this war Mhmm. Come to an end? Well, I think you're actually gonna have to see positive actions from the government of Iran. They're either gonna acknowledge that they are agreeing to free flow of commerce through the straits or other demands of the administration. So it's gonna take action at this point. I don't think rhetoric is still going anywhere.

They're gonna have to act and acquiesce on some of these objectives, and and that's what no one's seeing. And who can do that may be part of the problem. Mhmm. You were a Navy Seal, Admiral, and there's been conversations about seizing Carg Island. There's been conversation, about lining the shores of the strait with troops. At some point, will we need men and women on the ground to close the deal here? Well, I think it's an option.

Look. We've already put boots on the ground in Iran. People have lost track of that. We put 200 people on the ground to seize ground and recover our pilots. So I think that's an attractive option and has real impact on the psyche of the regime, but more importantly, to the people of Iran. As the president always said, help is on the raid. So putting boots on the ground, not to occupy Iran Yeah. But to go in to do a raid, to impact their thinking and logic, and encourage the people inside Iran, I think, are part of a broader strategy.

As Jen said, that you need a broader strategy. You saw the CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper in the region this week making rounds to all the GCC partners. So you're seeing the president ratcheting not only economic power, but political power as well. I think it's gonna take that whole of government approach to get the results we're looking for in Iran. So let's talk about strategies and what might possibly come down, Jen, from, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent.

Maybe it's dealing with the Chinese ties and putting some pressure there. Maybe it's looking at some of Iran's other trading partners, overseas assets, a shadow fleet. There are some different things that are out there, also exchange houses, a number of exchange houses in countries such as The UAE that help Iran repatriate funds. What of these do you think could be the thing that finally pushes Iran over the edge? I personally don't think any.

Oh, Jen, let why don't you take it first, then we'll bring you in, admiral. Well, you don't think that any of those are going to fundamentally change the Iranian calculus. They are negotiating from a position of power at this point. They believe that they have withstood a tremendous military onslaught, which they have, from two of the largest militaries in the world, and they have emerged intact. And so all of these options on the table will continue to undermine and diminish Iran's economy.

And that is, as noted, a very important tool, but it is not in and of itself a strategy. And I don't think that any of them are going to shift Iran's red lines fundamentally. At the end of the day, it is going to be a negotiated solution that allows both sides to save face and to find an off ramp that are going to end this war. But economic pressure alone has virtually never worked as a as a kind of comprehensive strategy.

Mhmm. Admiral, wanna bring you in here because you have, like Jen, a unique vantage point. You lived in Iran. You have an understanding of maybe where the leaders there are coming from. They're willing to certainly let their people deal some pain or live through some pain, and so, obviously, it could probably let them deal with some more sanctions or economic hardship. Having said that, what don't maybe the world at large, maybe what The United States doesn't understand about Iran as a country, about, its leadership, and how how far they're willing to go?

Well, the leadership will go all the way. This is an existential threat to them, and it, this economic power pressure adds to the problems they have. One, to reconstitute and maintain power, their ability to pursue any nuclear power. It has impact on the surrogates they've been funding for decades, the Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis. And you're seeing that empower the government of Lebanon to now reach and talk to Israeli to prop solve that problem.

So I think this long term approach doesn't result in the ending of conflict immediately, but it sure puts Iran continues to diminish their power and diminish their ability to project power, and more importantly, continues to put the regime at risk immediately and long term. You've got 75,000,000 Iranians who see how the rest of the region and everyone else live, and they wanna live like that. And they can't with this regime, so they wanna get rid of them.

And I think these steps continue to undermine