AI供应链快讯：存储、先进封装与算力投资多点开花
Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting:
Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting:
以下是我觉得有趣的一些内容摘要：
- $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day.
- $SNDK 在投资者日上预测，到2030年调整后毛利率为80%，营业利润率约75%，调整后自由现金流利润率约50%。
LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030.
长期协议已经覆盖了2028年产量的三分之二。最低合同收入达到930亿美元（当前市值约为2390亿美元）……当你的收入/目标预计将持续到4年后的2030年时，很难再被视为周期性股票。
- $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029.
- $CRWV 签署了为期6年的合同，涉及 $NVDA A100 GPU，直至2029年。
For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis
对于像 Nebius/Iren 这样的新云服务商来说，这是积极的，因为它反驳了例如 Burry 的折旧做空论点。
- conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS
- 据瑞银估计，传统DRAM的毛利率（例如美光）预计到2027年将达到前所未有的95%，超过HBM的毛利率。
read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct.
如果预测正确，那么对于南亚科技、华邦电子等传统/标准DRAM厂商来说，利好应该会持续发酵。
- Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers.
- 据报道，Anthropic 实现了同比增长14倍以上，第二季度环比增长约2.4倍，收入超过115亿美元，预计到2028年收入将达到1900-2000亿美元。
Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt.
你的前沿实验室继续以惊人的速度增长，如果它们不这样反而令人担忧。
- $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028
- 据报道，$NVDA 正在洽谈向 SB Energy（软银子公司）投资30亿美元，与 Apollo、BlackRock、Blackstone、Brookfield、Goldman 等共同推动超过5000亿美元的计算融资。据报道，$NVDA 的 Feynman 平台将在2028年下半年转向台积电 A16 + SoIC + 定制HBM + CPO。
Just more nvidia news every day
每天都有更多英伟达的消息。
- $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September.
- $MSFT 的 Maia 300 讨论了 $TSM 在2027年超过30万片的产能，并计划扩展到100万片以上。最早可能在9月发布。
Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now:
可能 $MRVL 应该对这个消息更高兴。至于目前正在发生的事情：
- maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026...
- 也许世芯电子（GUC）正在为微软当前的ASIC项目放量。对于亚马逊方面，像 Alchip（我持有其股票）这样的公司，可能正在随着 $AMZN 的ASIC项目在2026年下半年开始放量……
So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries.
所以，关注超大规模云服务商的ASIC放量时间线及其受益者可能是个好主意。
- $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"...
- $TSM 先进封装副总裁表示：“未来几年，行业可能不仅面临内存短缺，还会面临ABF基板供应紧张。”……
Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks.
重点强调未来几年内存和ABF基板将成为瓶颈。
Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes.
甚至上游的ABF基板设备供应商也受益，例如使用真空层压设备的 Eternal Precision 表示订单激增，其工厂已满负荷运转，并提价20%以上。
- $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030
- $AMAT 预计先进封装收入在2026年将增长超过70%，而此前预期为超过50%，并表示与客户的讨论现在已延伸到2030年。
(not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting)
（对这家公司不太熟悉，但发现他们从2025年第四季度的68亿美元增长到70.1亿美元、79.1亿美元、91.2亿美元，再到2026年第四季度预测的102.5亿美元，这个增长率相当有趣）
- Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries)
- Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3.
- Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply.
- 谷歌在OCP亚太会议上表示，传统的48V电压已接近极限。$NVDA详细介绍了2026年下半年的800VDC MGX兼容机架（时间线，Delta / Lite-On为受益者）
- 除了$SNDK，南亚科技的长期协议覆盖了其50%的产能。CXMT上个月签署了多年期DRAM协议，因此整个内存行业似乎都在遵循与三大巨头相同的策略。
- 探针卡仍然是瓶颈，MPI（6223）表示其探针卡产能仍处于满负荷状态，因为需求超过供应。
Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one.
本周早些时候已经涵盖了$AAOI、$SIVE和$LITE的连续波激光器瓶颈，但那是另一个有趣的话题。
- some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo.
- 根据Nichidenbo的说法，一些MLCC/元器件的交货时间已长达36周。
Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this.
三星电机、太阳诱电、村田制作所等厂商听到这个消息应该会非常高兴。
TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.
简而言之：AI供应链正在飞速发展。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力