跳到主内容
@wquguru
精选60Bloomberg Podcasts(YouTube)宏观多源精选 ×5

美军在霍尔木兹海峡以蓝水海军打棕水战

US Fighting A 'Brown Water Fight with a Blue Water Navy' in Hormuz : Col. Sanders

原文
发到 X

I think what you're mainly hoping for is some type of security agreement that allows for, uh, for passage of capabilities. You know, you've seen 34 different countries across, uh, across Europe and NATO to say, hey, look, once we get it to a point where there is, uh, no more attacks, are willing to work on some type of, uh, you know, varying system, some type of, uh, uh, support to be able to do that and get and get vehicles and vessels across the straits.

我认为你主要希望的是某种安全协议,允许能力的通行。你知道,你已经看到欧洲和北约的34个不同国家说,嘿,看,一旦我们达到不再有攻击的地步,愿意努力建立某种类型的、嗯,你知道,不同的系统,某种类型的、嗯,嗯,支持,以便能够做到这一点,并让车辆和船只通过海峡。

The problem is in doing that, obviously, Iran realizes now that they have a car that they haven't had in the past. And so I still think that this is something that in any time that I ran, feels that they've been wronged in some way. This is something that's going to continue to raise their head and go, hey, if we don't get what we want, this is a car that we are going to throw down and potentially play. The proxies play a huge part in this because it gives them some amount of of distance away from that.

问题在于,显然,伊朗现在意识到他们拥有了一张过去没有的牌。所以我仍然认为,在我任职期间,任何时候他们觉得在某种程度上受到了委屈,这件事就会继续抬头,然后说,嘿,如果我们得不到我们想要的,这就是我们会打出的牌,并且可能会玩。代理人在这方面扮演了重要角色,因为这给了他们一定的距离。

And uh, and plausible deniability going, oh, it wasn't us. It wasn't something that we actually sanctioned. And so that makes it a very volatile situation. How much of a multiple front war is this on a Friday in August? Uh, it's it's fairly significant, right, because, uh, we are fighting a brown water fight with a blue water navy, uh, as well. Look at it in in the Strait of Hormuz. We have a lot of capabilities for a peer to peer adversary threat, But that's one of the reasons why the Navy's looking to try and build out some capacity.

而且,嗯,还有合理的否认,说,哦,不是我们。这不是我们实际制裁的事情。所以这使得局势非常动荡。在八月的星期五,这算是一场多战线战争吗?嗯,这是相当重要的,对吧,因为,嗯,我们也在用蓝水海军打一场棕水战斗。看看霍尔木兹海峡。我们有很多针对对等对手威胁的能力,但这也是海军寻求建立一些能力的原因之一。

Uh, with that mid-tier, you're seeing a lot of, you know, the undersea vessels and a lot of, uh, you know, I'm crude surface vessels. You're seeing a lot of, uh, play in this space to be able to do that, because you do have to address that. You do have to stay focused on what China is doing and a potential consideration for a 2027, uh, Taiwan scenario, something that you have to be able to look at for that. And Russia's still remains a player.

嗯,有了那个中等级别,你会看到很多,你知道,水下舰艇和很多,嗯,你知道,我指的是粗糙的水面舰艇。你会看到很多,嗯,在这个领域的活动,以便能够做到这一点,因为你必须解决这个问题。你必须保持对中国正在做的事情的关注,以及2027年台湾潜在情况的考虑,这是你必须能够考虑的事情。而俄罗斯仍然是一个参与者。

They still have a, uh, a fairly robust defense industrial base that continues to pump out capabilities and munitions. Uh, they've had to focus more on what exactly it is that they're doing. Right. So their space industry has taken some hits to make sure that their air defense and long range missile capacity continues to remain, as well as 8 million drones produced a year by Russia. Uh, I mean, these are significant numbers that are still out there.

他们仍然拥有一个相当强大的国防工业基础,继续生产能力和弹药。嗯,他们不得不更加专注于他们正在做的事情。对吧。所以他们的航天工业受到了一些打击,以确保他们的防空和远程导弹能力继续存在,以及俄罗斯每年生产800万架无人机。嗯,我的意思是,这些数字仍然很大。

So the U.S. military has to be able to provide for all of those. You can't just go after a hegemonic type fight and then leave an asymmetric capability on the floor as well. Wayne, uh, one of President Trump's, uh, objectives for this war was to, uh, get to the enriched uranium that Iran has. And I think the reporting is that it's buried under some mountain somewhere in Iran. Is there a military Solution there. I know we've had bombing campaigns in the past, but what's the current thinking?

所以美国军方必须能够应对所有这些情况。你不能只进行霸权式的战斗,然后在地面上留下不对称的能力。韦恩,特朗普总统在这场战争中的目标之一是获取伊朗拥有的浓缩铀。我认为报道说它被埋在伊朗某座山下的某个地方。那里有军事解决方案吗?我知道我们过去有过轰炸行动,但目前的看法是什么?

Yeah. You know, I guarantee you that there are operational plans that are out there that address and say if these certain conditions are met, this is the type of capability that we will use to, uh, to create that, whether or not it's additional bunker buster, uh, you know, the massive ordnance penetrators, uh, the mop system that was used back in operation, uh, Midnight Hammer. They have these things lined up, and I guarantee you there's going to be a certain amount of, uh, throttling of capability that says if we do this certain amount, you look at collateral damage estimates and, uh, and say, if we do this, this would be a potential for civilian casualties.

是的。你知道,我向你保证,那里有作战计划,这些计划会说明,如果满足某些条件,我们将使用这种类型的能力来创造那种结果,无论是额外的钻地炸弹,你知道,巨型钻地弹,还是在“午夜之锤”行动中使用的MOP系统。他们已经把这些准备好了,我向你保证,会有一定程度的火力限制,说如果我们这样做,你会看到附带损害评估,然后说,如果我们这样做,这可能会导致平民伤亡。

This is our chances of success. They they they do this, that at nauseum. Right? They go through this and they working it over and over again to be able to create that scenario. But most of the time it ends up saying that the conditions have to be met for that. And right now with Iran, one of the biggest pieces on that is they've already shown that they're willing to kill their own people. So then when you start looking at even if I were to do this and I were to address the nuclear, uh, the nuclear material at Pickax Mountain and then say that we neutralized it, what exactly is that Rand going to do as a as a countermeasure, or is it going to be going after the 90 million, uh, innocent Iranians that are out there that just want this war to end?

这是我们成功的机会。他们反复这样做,没完没了。对吧?他们经历这些,一遍又一遍地研究,以便能够创造那种情景。但大多数时候,最终的结果是必须满足条件。而现在对于伊朗,其中最大的问题之一是,他们已经表明他们愿意杀死自己的人民。所以当你开始考虑,即使我这样做,我处理了皮卡克斯山的核材料,然后说我们已将其中和,那么伊朗究竟会采取什么反制措施,还是说它会去针对那9000万无辜的、只希望这场战争结束的伊朗人民?

更进一步:量化金融体系

看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力

进入量化体系 →

关联讨论

同一事件的更多信源
周末霍尔木兹海峡船只通行量大幅减少
ChainCatcher 链捕手(Telegram)原文
伊朗称美军已被驱逐不得进入海峡
律动 BlockBeats(Telegram)原文
伊朗制裁或聚焦中国石油贸易
Bloomberg Television(YouTube)原文

相似阅读

另一事件,读法相近