厄尔尼诺或致全球经济损失数万亿美元

When I think about the cost of this forthcoming El Niño, you know, I estimate somewhere around $10 trillion of global economic losses. Conservatively, over the next five years, right up to $14 trillion of economic losses if you take some of these tail. But I can only 70% of that. Only, you know, about $10 trillion of that is in sample meaning supported by existing data. We have an El Niño as an economic responses. Our global economy is larger.

And so these these losses are associated not just with the magnitude of the El Niño, but the size of our global economy. There's just more stuff to be impacted. Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Weisenthal. Joe, I don't know if I've ever told you about this, but I'm a little bit of a weather nerd. Okay? I do, maybe a little bit, I knew. I don't I don't even know if weather nerd is the right term.

I just get really excited by weather. I love thunderstorms, I love a good thunderstorm. So come inside. Well, this is the thing. I love thunderstorms, except when I'm on an airplane or something like that. Yeah, I do not like economically damaging weather. I feel like I need to throw that caveat in there. I don't like, economically damaging other you know what I am? I'm like a weather truther. No, this is what I mean.

Like, I don't believe so. For example, I don't believe that there's any accurate way, for example, to, measure wind chill. It's like, oh, it's like 25 degrees out and it feels like 15. So how do you know what 15 feels like? You know what I'm saying? Like, I don't believe in some of these numbers. Also humidity. What? There's water in the air. Give me a break. There's no water in there. No. That one I tell me you've never been to Abu Dhabi.

No. Summer without telling me you've never been to Abu Dhabi? No. This last week in New York, I felt like I didn't know that one was a joke. I do, I am, I am a, a wind chill, skeptic, even though I don't think that's the topic of our conversation today, it is not. The topic of our conversation is actually economically damaging weather. Yes. And specifically the upcoming El Niño, which, by the way, it's not that that often that you see a lot of sell side note start to mention weather phenomenon.

But just in the past, you know, few days I've had a Thailand economics note from Citi talking about interest rates and quoting the potential impact of El Niño. Okay, inflationary. I've had a bank of England outlook from Morgan Stanley that mentioned El Niño and also a Bank of America affects outlook. Talking about the impacts on M currencies. So this is something that people are expecting to have an actual impact both on the global economy and the investment landscape.

You know, I will just say, even though I'm not a weather nerd the way you are, I sort of have this thought that if you look at like the really grand sweep of history, like thousands and thousands of years, maybe even hundreds of thousands of years, I sort of think there are two things that matter in human history. One of them is, you know, I'm interested in is like basically technological evolution, media technology and how it reshapes how we think.

And then the other one is sort of climate change, weather and storms. And I think that when we think about history, many things are contingent either on like brief or long periods of weather change, and it can reshape society in permanent, long term, unexpected ways at the time. And, have we ever even done any El Niño episode in like a year or 11 years of doing this? I don't think we have, but it sounds like this is one that we should cover if it's showing up and all these are infinite showing up on all these notes.

If we're going to cover one, this should probably be the one, because at the moment, well, you have different El Niño forecast. Yeah. And you know, there's a range of, probabilities involved here. But a lot of the forecasting models are currently, forecasting that this is going to be a potentially record breaking El Niño, something we haven't seen in decades. Do you think there are any people who are like, oh, it's interesting.

You bring up the El Niño, you know, I've always thought La Ninos are the more, underrated one. Do you think that's the type of guy like, I so, like I hope not, but are you going to become like, an El Niño? True or. No, I'm to make. How do you know it's El Niño? Unless you're standing in the Pacific Ocean measuring the water yourself, you're going to become a guy who's like, you know, you really should be paying attention to the upcoming La La Niña.

Oh, good. That'll be a fun transformation for you. Okay, well, we do, in fact, have the perfect guest. We're going to be speaking to someone who not only follows the weather, but also tries to measure its economic impact. We have Justin Mankin, he is professor of geography at Dartmouth and director of the Climate Modeling and Impacts Group. So, Justin, thank you so much for coming on Odd Lots. Yeah. Happy to be here.

Thanks for having me. I feel like maybe the first thing we should do is can you can you convince Joe that El Niño is is a real thing? I feel. Yeah, apparently he needs, like, a first person experience of it. What is El Niño? Yeah. What is it? Yeah, like like wind chill. Factor is it is, in fact, real. And measurable. You know, where, and they're both kind of actually aerodynamically related, right. So wind chill, the feeling you get on your skin is owing to the fact that the wind is wicking away latent heat from your skin, which is the heat associated with a phase change of water from a liquid to a vapor.

And so that's why when you get out of a shower, you feel cooler, than before you get into it, right? So that evaporation off your skin induced by aerodynamic resistance, i.e., the wind, that is the thing that's cooling you down, which is why we can measure it and why we can tell you, that cold exposure is, is a bad thing. The El Niño phenomenon is in ocean atmosphere. It's kind of part of what's called the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is, essentially a relationship between the tropical Pacific and the overlying tropical atmosphere.

And it has a tendency to be in what we call a neutral state, which just kind of average conditions where you have these easterly trade winds. So these are winds that are blowing from east to west across the tropics, along the equator. And what they're doing is they're dragging surface water, surface water that's been worn because it's in the tropics by the sun. Right. The sun is just shining there all year round. And so that water heats up, and then the winds kind of drag that surface water and create a literally a pile, such that the, the sea altitude is higher in the West Pacific than in the specific, and that pile of warm water is something we call the West Pacific warm pool.

And so it just sits there parked by Indonesia and Australia. And then every once in a while, those trade winds weaken and break down and that pile of warm water that actually penetrates quite deep into the western tropical Pacific, that pile of warm water just spreads itself out over the vast expanse that is the tropical Pacific. And so that's actually how we measure El Niño is we're measuring it as a function of sea surface temperature anomalies.

So how much warmer than average? Our ocean temperatures at the surface. Yeah. You know, at this time in this location, and, you know, there are different ways to kind of calculate what the regional averages and we can get into the that technical nitty gritty. But essentially all this water sloshes back eastward and in doing so reconfigures all of weather, which is just energy rate distribution from the sun on our, our fluid planet.

Right. It redistributes all of that energy differently than would have been the case if all that water were piled up in the Western Pacific. I guess like a really simple analogy a listener could maybe grab on to as they'v

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