伊朗袭击霍尔木兹海峡两艘阿联酋油轮
Iran Strikes Two UAE Oil Tankers in Hormuz | Horizons Middle East & Africa 8/14/2026
地缘冲突升级直接影响原油供应与风险溢价，建议关注霍尔木兹海峡局势对油价及航运保险费的传导，并留意美国对伊经济措施的后续落地。
ABEER: GOOD MORNING. THIS IS "HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA." OUT TOP STORIES. ECONOMIC EVENTS AND. THE U.S. PLANS TO ANNOUNCE ECONOMIC MEASURES AGAINST IRAN. TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT SAYS THE PLAN INCLUDES THE CONTINUED BLOCKADE OF IRAN PORTS. ASIAN STOCKS CLIMB AS A U.S. INFLATION CEMENTS BETS THAT THE FED WILL HOLD RATES NEXT MONTH. MEANWHILE AT TREASURY BORROWING COSTS FOR 30 YEAR BONDS HIT A 25 YEAR HIGH AS INVESTORS DEMAND MORE YIELD.
阿比尔：早上好。这里是“地平线中东与非洲”。我们的头条新闻。经济事件以及。美国计划宣布对伊朗的经济措施。财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，该计划包括继续封锁伊朗港口。亚洲股市上涨，因美国通胀数据巩固了美联储下月维持利率不变的预期。与此同时，在国债市场，30年期债券的借贷成本触及25年高点，因投资者要求更高的收益率。
AND BLOOMBERG LEARNS THAT OPENAI IS ON TRACK TO GENERATE MORE THAN $40 BILLION IN ANNUALIZED REVENUE AHEAD OF POTENTIAL IPO. GROWTH AND CODING -- GROWTH IN CODING TOOLS IS DRIVING THE SURGE IN SALES. IT HAS JUST GONE 8:00 A.M. ACROSS THE EMIRATES. HAPPY FRIDAY INDEED FOR GLOBAL EQUITIES. WE ARE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS FOR THE S&P 500. WE ARE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS FOR GLOBAL EQUITIES. THIS MORNING THE PICTURE IN S&P FUTURES IS FLAT.
彭博社获悉，OpenAI 的年化收入有望超过400亿美元，在潜在的IPO之前。增长和编码——编码工具的增长推动了销售额的激增。阿联酋时间刚过上午8点。全球股市确实迎来了愉快的星期五。我们看到标普500指数创下历史新高。我们看到全球股市创下历史新高。今早标普期货走势持平。
THAT FOLLOWS A POSITIVE SESSION IN THE S&P 500 YESTERDAY. WE SAW IT ABOUT .5%, OR .6% HIGHER. NASDAQ 100 ROSE 1.2%. THAT GAUGE FOR CHIPMAKERS SEMI CONDUCTORS WAS ALSO HIGHER YESTERDAY. INVESTORS ARE REDOUBLING THEIR BETS ON THE AI TRADE FOLLOWING LAST MONTH'S SOME OF BOTH IN ASIA AND THE UNITED STATES. ONE INDIVIDUAL NAME WE HAVE KEPT AN EYE ON YESTERDAY THAT SOLIDIFIES THE AI DEMAND GAME IS SANDISK. 12% HIGHER AFTER EARNINGS, AND SOLIDIFIED DEMAND FOR CHIPMAKERS.
此前标普500指数昨日收涨。我们看到了约0.5%或0.6%的涨幅。纳斯达克100指数上涨1.2%。衡量芯片制造商半导体行业的指标昨日也走高。在上月亚洲和美国的一些事件之后，投资者正在加大对人工智能交易的押注。我们昨日关注的一只个股是闪迪，它巩固了人工智能需求的故事。财报公布后上涨12%，并巩固了对芯片制造商的需求。
IT BROUGHT UP A LOT OF ITS PEERS IN THE SESSION YESTERDAY, INCLUDING MICRON, WESTERN DIGITAL AND SEAGATE. ASIAN EQUITIES ARE TURNING HIGHER BY .2%. THE KOSPI IS RISING IN SOUTH KOREA. SAMSUNG AND SK HYNIX CONTRIBUTING TO THAT GAIN. IT WILL BE A FOURTH WEEK OF GAINS FOR THE MSCI ASIA PACIFIC. THIS WEEKLY ADVANCE FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK WOULD BE AT 2.6%, SO AN OVERALL POSITIVE PICTURE FOR EQUITIES ACROSS THE BOARD. BRENT CRUDE PRICES NOT DOING MUCH, .2% HIGHER.
这带动了昨日许多同行股票的上涨，包括美光、西部数据和希捷。亚洲股市上涨0.2%。韩国综合股价指数上涨，三星和SK海力士贡献了涨幅。这将是MSCI亚太指数连续第四周上涨。本周末的周涨幅将达到2.6%，因此整体来看，股市全线呈现积极态势。布伦特原油价格变动不大，上涨0.2%。
THE PICTURE IS PLATEAUING IN THE MIDDLE EAST. WE HAVE THE LATEST FROM SCOTT BESSENT ABOUT SOME KIND OF ECONOMIC PRESSURE BEING PLACED ON IRAN, BUT ASIDE FROM THAT WE HAVE A COUPLE TANKERS BEING HIT. SOME TENSIONS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, BUT WHEN IT COMES TO BROADER DEAL PROSPECTS WE DON'T HAVE ANY CLARITY YET. YOU ARE SEEING BRENT CRUDE AT $87.2 ON THE BARREL. THE YIELD ON THE 10 YEAR NOTE AROUND 4.65%. WE ARE FOLLOWING THAT U.S.
中东局势趋于平稳。我们得到了斯科特·贝森特关于对伊朗施加某种经济压力的最新消息，但除此之外，有几艘油轮被击中。霍尔木兹海峡存在一些紧张局势，但就更广泛的协议前景而言，我们还没有明确信息。布伦特原油价格在每桶87.2美元。10年期国债收益率约为4.65%。我们正在关注美国的这些动态。
GOVERNMENT STORY. WE ARE FOLLOWING WHAT THE YIELDS ARE DOING ON THE TWO-YEAR NOTES. THEY WERE LITTLE CHANGED THIS MORNING, BUT YESTERDAY THEY FELL SIX BASIS POINTS. NOW MONEY MARKETS ARE PRICING IN ABOUT A 35% CHANCE OF A HIKE IN SEPTEMBER, SO LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAD SEEN EARLIER. CONTINUING WITH THE YIELD STORY AND GOVERNMENT BONDS, THE U.S. GOVERNMENT SOLD 30 YEAR BONDS AT THE HIGHEST INTEREST RATE IN A QUARTER OF A CENTURY.
政府故事。我们正在关注两年期国债收益率的走势。今早它们变化不大，但昨日下跌了6个基点。目前货币市场定价9月加息概率约为35%，低于我们早前所见。继续关注收益率故事和国债，美国政府以四分之一世纪以来的最高利率出售了30年期国债。
THE YIELD ON THE $25 MILLION SALE CAME IN AT 5.216%, THE HIGHEST SINCE 2001. FOR MORE ON THIS STORY WE ARE JOINED BY BLOOMBERG MLIV STRATEGIST DAVID SAVAGE. I'M LOOKING AT THE STORY WE PUT OUT REGARDING WHAT WE SEE IN THE STATES. IT IS A TESTAMENT TO INVESTOR'S DEMAND FOR GREATER COMPETITION TO ESSENTIALLY FINANCE THE GOVERNMENT DEFICIT IN THE UNITED STATES. SHOULD WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THOSE ELEVATED NUMBERS GOING FORWARD OR UNTIL THE END OF THE YEAR?
这笔2500万美元的拍卖收益率达到5.216%，为2001年以来最高。关于这一故事，我们请到了彭博MLIV策略师大卫·萨维奇。我正在看我们发布的关于美国情况的报道。这证明了投资者对更大竞争的需求，以基本为美国政府的赤字融资。我们是否应该继续预期这些高企的数字，直到年底？
DAVID: GOOD MORNING. ULTIMATELY THIS IS A STRUCTURAL STORY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS COME IN SPURTS. SINCE LATE JUNE THE 30 YEAR IS UP 38 BASIS POINTS. BUT IN RECENT WEEKS WE'VE HAD SOME SOFTER U.S. ECONOMIC DATA PULL BACK SOME OF THOSE EXPECTATIONS FOR A SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE. WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IS A STEEPENING OF THE YIELD CURVE. THIS IS A STRUCTURAL STORY BECAUSE ULTIMATELY NEAR-TERM DATA CAN DICTATE WHERE WE GET SHORT-TERM YIELDS MOVING, BUT IN TERMS OF THE LONG END, THAT DATA WILL NOT ALTER SOME OF THE DRIVERS IN TERMS OF HIGHER YIELDS IN TERMS OF CONCERNS ABOUT FISCAL DEFICITS AND WITH TERM PREMIUM IS.
大卫：早上好。最终这是一个结构性故事。我们看到这种情况是间歇性出现的。自6月底以来，30年期收益率上升了38个基点。但最近几周，美国经济数据疲软，削弱了部分对9月加息的预期。我们看到的是收益率曲线趋陡。这是一个结构性故事，因为最终短期数据可以决定短期收益率的走向，但就长期而言，这些数据不会改变一些推动收益率上升的因素，比如对财政赤字和期限溢价的担忧。
THE LONGER TERM INFLATIONARY IMPACT FROM GROWTH AND DRIVERS LIKE AI CAPEX SPENDING AND HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES. ULTIMATELY THIS IS A STRUCTURAL STORY WE WILL BE TALKING ABOUT IN THE MONTHS TO COME. ABEER: I HAVE BEEN ASKING YOU ABOUT THE YEN ON YOUR APPEARANCES. WE ARE REALLY KEEPING AN EYE ON WHERE THE LEVELS OF THE CURRENCY ARE. RIGHT NOW WE ARE AROUND 159.437. WE ARE REALLY EDGING CLOSER TOWARD THAT 160 PER DOLLAR LEVEL, DESPITE THE SUPPORT WE REPORTED POSSIBLY FROM PRIME MINISTER TAKAICHI'S GOVERNMENT.
长期通胀影响来自增长以及AI资本支出和商品价格上涨等驱动因素。最终这是一个结构性故事，我们将在未来几个月讨论。阿比尔：我一直在你露面时问你关于日元的问题。我们确实在关注货币的汇率水平。现在大约在159.437。我们确实在逼近1美元兑160的水平，尽管我们报道了可能来自高市首相政府的支持。
WHAT COMES NEXT, ANOTHER INTERVENTION, OR DO WE NEED TO SEE A RETURN TO FUNDAMENTALS? DAVID: AS WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT , CERTAINLY FOR A SUSTAINED GAIN FOR THE YEN YOU DO NEED TO SEE A CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE POSTURE FOR THE BANK OF JAPAN. I THINK YESTERDAY'S MOVE WAS INDICATIVE THAT WE HAVE SEEN EXPECTATIONS FOR A SEPTEMBER HIKE BUILD FOR THE BANK OF JAPAN. WE SAW THE HEADLINE YESTERDAY THAT POTENTIALLY THE GOVERNMENT IS BEHIND A FASTER PACE OF HIKES.
接下来会发生什么，又一次干预，还是我们需要看到回归基本面？大卫：正如我们所说，当然，日元要想持续升值，你需要看到日本央行姿态的改变。我认为昨天的走势表明，对日本央行9月加息的预期已经形成。我们昨天看到头条新闻，可能政府支持更快的加息步伐。
BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN THAT LEAD YET TO A REAL TURN FOR THE YEN. I THINK THAT IS BECAUSE THE MARKET IS NOT LOOKING TO SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER, THEY ARE LOOKING FOR BEYOND THAT, WHAT IS THE PACE OF NORMALIZATION FOR THE BANK OF JAPAN? AND TO DATE, THE MARKET HAS NOT HAD SUFFICIENT GUIDANCE TO EXPECT THAT NORMALIZATION TO OCCUR VERY QUICKLY. ABEER: WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO LEAVE IT THERE. THINK YOU FOR YOUR TIME. FOR MORE ON THE MARKET OUTLOOK AND WIDER MARKETS MOVE, LET'S BRING IN A CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT NOMURA.
但我们尚未看到这导致日元真正转势。我认为这是因为市场关注的不是九月或十月，而是更远的未来，即日本央行的正常化步伐如何？到目前为止，市场尚未获得足够的指引来预期这种正常化会很快发生。阿比尔：我们得就此打住了。感谢你的时间。要了解更多市场展望和更广泛的市场动向，让我们请出野村证券的首席市场策略师。
GOOD MORNING. YOU PROBABLY HEARD ME TALK TO DAVID EARLIER ABOUT THE WIDER MOVES WE'VE SEEN IN THE FED, BUT ALSO THE YEN. I WANT TO START WITH THE FED. THE NARRATIVE FOR A FED RATE HIKE IN SEPTEMBER HAS COOLED AFTER THAT CPI PRINT THAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS WEEK. DO YOU THINK MARKETS ARE UNDERPRICING THE RISK THAT INFLATION COULD WE ACCELERATE? -- RE-ACCELERATE?
早上好。你可能已经听到我早些时候与大卫讨论美联储以及日元的更广泛走势。我想从美联储开始。在本周早些时候的CPI数据公布后，市场对美联储九月加息的预期已经降温。你认为市场是否低估了通胀可能重新加速的风险？
ABSOLUTELY. I THINK THE STORY HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY. INFLATION IS OVER AND ABOVE WHERE THE FEDERAL RESERVE ULTIMATELY WANTS IT, BUT IT IS NO LONGER THE ONLY PROBLEM. JULY HEADLINES, THE CORE 2.5%. THE LATEST PRODUCER PRICE DATA, RELATIVELY CONTAINED MONTH OVER MONTH. THEN YOU LOOK AT THE PAYROLLS. THE U.S. LOST 203,000 JOBS IN JULY, WITH SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD PROVISIONS IN THE PREVIOUS MONTH. FOR ME THE LABOR MARKET IS BECOMING THE MORE IMPORTANT PART OF THE EQUATION.
绝对如此。我认为情况略有转变。通胀仍高于美联储最终希望的水平，但已不再是唯一的问题。七月份的核心通胀率为2.5%。最新的生产者价格数据环比相对温和。再看就业数据，美国七月份减少了20.3万个工作岗位，前几个月的数据也被大幅下修。对我来说，劳动力市场正成为方程式中更重要的部分。
THE FED SPENT THE LAST FEW YEARS FIGHTING INFLATION AND NOW IT HAS TO MAKE SURE IT DOES NOT WIN THE BATTLE AT THE EXPENSE OF EMPLOYMENT. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE FED? SEPTEMBER IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FED CAN AFFORD TO WAIT. THE PROBLEM IS THE FED IS RECEIVING TWO DIFFERENT SIGNALS. EMPLOYMENT IS TELLING THEM TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT KEEPING POLICY TOO TIGHT WHILE INFLATION IS NO BASICALLY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ENERGY AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS, IS TELLING THEM NOT TO DECLARE VICTORY TOO EARLY.
美联储过去几年一直在对抗通胀，现在它必须确保不会以牺牲就业为代价来赢得这场战斗。这对美联储意味着什么？九月越来越成为一个问题：美联储是否还能承受等待的代价。问题在于美联储收到两个不同的信号。就业数据告诉他们要小心维持过于紧缩的政策，而通胀基本上——尤其是考虑到能源和地缘政治风险——则告诉他们不要过早宣布胜利。
I THINK THE QUESTION WOULD BE NOW IF THE FED IS NOT STOPPING TIGHTENING, OR THE FED HAS NOT EVEN STARTED HIKING RATES, BUT AT THE SAME TIME INFLATION IS STILL ABOVE TARGET. WE KNOW THAT THERE ARE POLICYMAKERS WHO WANT MORE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE LAST DECISION. ABEER: I WANT TO BRING IN WHAT AI MEANS FOR THE FED, BECAUSE CAPEX IS STARTING TO BECOME AN ISSUE FOR MARKETS. WHEN DO YOU THINK THAT ALONE STARTS BECOMING A HEADACHE FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE?
我想现在的问题是，如果美联储没有停止紧缩，或者美联储甚至还没有开始加息，但与此同时通胀仍高于目标。我们知道有些政策制定者希望采取更多行动，尤其是考虑到上次的决定。阿比尔：我想引入人工智能对美联储的影响，因为资本支出正开始成为市场关注的问题。你认为什么时候这会开始成为美联储的头痛问题？
DAVTHERE'S A LOT OF HEADACHES FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE AS WE SPEAK. LISTEN TO THE ADMINISTRATION PRESSURE THAT WE SAW OVER THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS, THE FEDERAL RESERVE CASE ON ONE SIDE AND THE U.S. PRESIDENT TRYING TO OUST MULTIPLE MEMBERS. AI, THE MORE -- THE MORE I DIG DEEPER ON A DAILY BASIS AND USING AI, I AM CONVINCED THIS AI MOVE IS NOT A BUBBLE. THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT THE CAPEX SPENDING, BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE HAVE TO LOOK INTO THE BROADER PICTURE.
目前美联储面临很多头疼的问题。听听过去几个月我们看到的管理层压力，一方面是美联储的案例，另一方面是美国总统试图罢免多名成员。人工智能，越是——我每天深入研究并使用AI，我越确信这波AI行情不是泡沫。有人担心资本支出，但与此同时，我们必须着眼于更宏观的图景。
IT IS NOT JUST USING CHATGPT TO WRITE AN ESSAY OR SUMMARIZING YOUR EMAILS, IT IS BASICALLY USING AI IN ORDER FOR YOU TO SCALE THE CAPABILITIES OF HUMANS ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS. MAYBE TODAY I AM WITH YOU IN PERSON, AT LEAST WILL RESUME. MAYBE THE NEXT MEETING OVER THE INTERVIEW IT MAY BE MY DIGITAL DOUBLE. NOBODY KNOWS. ABEER: SO NOT A BUBBLE. NOT A BUBBLE ON THE AI FRONT, THAT IS A LINE PEOPLE WOULD AGREE WITH YOU ON.
这不仅仅是使用ChatGPT写文章或总结邮件，而是基本上利用AI来扩展人类日常能力。也许今天我亲自和你在一起，至少会恢复。也许下次面试会议，可能是我的数字替身。没人知道。阿比尔：所以不是泡沫。在AI方面不是泡沫，这是人们会同意你的观点。
LET'S MOVE ON TO THE GEOPOLITICS. THERE'S A SENSE OF PLATEAUIN
让我们转向地缘政治。有一种趋于平稳的感觉。
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