贝莱德锐德：日银需鹰派加息以支撑日元
BlackRock's Rieder Urges Hawkish BOJ Tilt to Boost Yen
So there's been a lot of news about the Japanese yen and how it's been really under siege, going up over 160. As we speak right now. It's something under 160, but it's sort of up there. Um, what is causing that? So a couple things. I mean, I think the the big deal is, you know, you've got it, you've got a tremendous amount of, uh, of fiscal that has to be financed. And I think people worry about, you know, is and particularly is the Bank of Japan going to raise rate?
所以关于日元有很多新闻，以及它如何一直受到围攻，现在汇率超过了160。就在我们说话的时候，它略低于160，但差不多在那个水平。嗯，是什么导致了这种情况？有几件事。我的意思是，我认为最重要的是，你知道，你有大量的财政需要融资。我认为人们担心的是，特别是日本央行是否会加息？
Is the Bank of Japan going to be hawkish to support the currency? And heretofore they've been a bit deliberate in terms of moving it this moving in September to sort of stabilize the currencies a big deal. Intervention. You know, I've watched intervention happen over time. You need to really keep going with a lot of firepower. I would argue it's not the most the not the most durable way to get there. Markets, once they see it, they keep they open an eye towards it.
日本央行是否会采取鹰派立场来支撑货币？到目前为止，他们在9月份的行动上一直比较谨慎，以稳定货币，这是一件大事。干预。你知道，我见过干预随着时间的推移发生。你需要持续投入大量火力。我认为这不是最持久的方式。市场一旦看到，他们就会保持警惕。
But then they need to keep seeing it. I think you got to get that policy. You've got to get monetary policy to replace a people believe that you're going to raise the rate. You're going to be hawkish when you need to be. And I think out of Japan, we need to see that. And I think, you know, I think you're going to see a move in September. Maybe they wait till December, but I think it's I think that'll be important for the markets to stabilize.
但他们需要持续看到。我认为你必须调整政策。你必须用货币政策来取代，让人们相信你会加息。在需要的时候你会表现鹰派。我认为从日本方面，我们需要看到这一点。而且我认为，你知道，我认为你会在9月看到行动。也许他们会等到12月，但我认为这对市场稳定很重要。
The one thing I will say about Japan that's different than in the past and U.S., Japan. It used to be, I don't know, managing money a decade ago, two decades ago, the flows between Japan and the US were quite intense, obviously from a trade perspective, but also from a from a, uh, Treasury JGB perspective. You had an awful lot that was going back and forth, domestic accounts in Japan and otherwise. It's not that large today.
关于日本，我想说的一件事是，与过去和美国不同。日本，过去，我不知道，十年前或二十年前管理资金时，日本和美国之间的资金流动相当密集，显然从贸易角度来看，而且从国债和日本国债的角度来看。有大量的资金来回流动，日本的国内账户等等。但如今规模没那么大了。
So anyway, China's become a much bigger influence. And obviously in trade also in and from a monetary point of view in terms of, from the bond side, etc.. So it's important, but uh, but it's not, not as important as China as we come in the, uh, in how we think about the markets. We had intervention last week, uh, and by all accounts, it wasn't just Japan. Uh, Treasury Secretary Besson came to their assistance and version.
所以无论如何，中国已经成为一个更大的影响因素。显然在贸易方面，而且在货币角度，从债券方面等等。所以它很重要，但是，嗯，但在我们考虑市场时，它不如中国重要。上周我们进行了干预，而且据各方说法，不仅仅是日本。财政部长贝森特出手相助，进行了干预。
Why is that? And how much of that was his concern actually about perhaps their need to sell treasuries? You know, I don't, you know, there I don't know the answer. I my sense is that there was a participation in that. You know, keeping that currency from a trade perspective, from a stability of Treasury's perspective, from a good partner perspective. My sense is there was some it wasn't that large, but it did. I will say as a market participant, I did open an eye to that and like, wow, we haven't seen that in a while.
为什么会这样？而且他的担忧中有多少实际上是关于他们可能需要出售国债？你知道，我不，你知道，那里我不知道答案。我的感觉是，那里有参与。你知道，从贸易角度、从国债稳定性的角度、从好伙伴的角度来看，保持那种货币。我的感觉是，有一些，但不是很大，但确实有。我要说的是，作为市场参与者，我确实对此睁大了眼睛，心想，哇，我们很久没看到这种情况了。
And then you start to think about how much firepower would you have to bring to the equation if you really were trying to do something around the strengthening of the yen? Um, so, you know, it's worth watching how much more they do. I think if you get another move like that, then it moves it from, okay, now there's something more significant you're doing here. But it was it was certainly the day I saw it. I thought you makes you think about a lot of the reasons why.
然后你开始思考，如果你真的试图在日元升值方面做点什么，你需要动用多大的火力？嗯，所以，你知道，值得关注他们还会做多少。我认为如果再有类似的动作，那就会从“好吧，现在你在做的事情更重要”转变。但那天我看到的时候，确实让你思考很多原因。
And, you know, only he knows. And probably a staff knows exactly why they did it. Well. And Secretary Rosen knows a little bit about currency markets going back to breaking the pound right back in those days. Uh, how does it work in currency markets? Can there be a brush back pitch we have in baseball where the the pitcher throws are close to the batter. Just get them back of the plate. Did it send a message to the market's way of saying don't assume that we're not going to rally.
而且，你知道，只有他知道。可能还有工作人员确切知道他们为什么这么做。嗯。罗斯纳部长对货币市场有点了解，可以追溯到当年做空英镑的时候。呃，货币市场是怎么运作的？有没有像棒球中的“擦身球”那样，投手投出的球靠近击球手，让他们离开本垒板。这是否向市场传递了一个信息，即“不要以为我们不会反击”？
I think few people in history that have been in this seat know currency markets as well as he does. So I think he's very thoughtful about market interpretation. And so my sense is he has a pretty good idea of how markets are react to it. Listen, I think it is because it was so meaningful in terms of, gosh, we haven't seen Treasury do that in a very long time. I think it definitely was one of those okay, markets, you should know that we're coming in and we'll do something if we need to.
我认为历史上在这个位置上的人中，很少有人像他那样了解货币市场。所以我认为他对市场解读非常深思熟虑。所以我的感觉是，他对市场会如何反应有很好的把握。听着，我认为这是因为这件事意义重大，天哪，我们很久没见过财政部这么做了。我认为这绝对是那种“好吧，市场，你们应该知道我们会介入，如果需要的话我们会采取行动”的信号之一。
And I think markets will will. Now I think the first thing I'll do is I'll test it because it wasn't that big. And the markets will test you. And I would say over time, you know, the central bank's balance sheets, the Treasury's balance sheets are bigger than the markets. But I have to see your willingness to to really put some firepower behind it. My sense is this was it maybe, as you described it, this brush back pitch or this indication of just keep us in mind in the back of your mind if you're going if you are thinking about shorting yen and pressing it further, that will be there to react to it.
而且我认为市场会……现在，我认为我要做的第一件事就是测试它，因为它不是那么大。市场会测试你。我想随着时间的推移，你知道，央行的资产负债表、财政部的资产负债表都比市场大。但我必须看到你愿意真正投入一些火力。我的感觉是，这也许就像你描述的那样，是一次擦边球或一个暗示，告诉你如果打算做空日元并进一步施压，要记住我们会在那里做出反应。
So I think that was I think that was an important signal. And does the U.S. need to be concerned about not just talking about other central banks starting to sell treasuries. If they really get under duress because the yen is not the only currency I got some pressure on. Yeah, I think we watch gold quite a bit. You are seeing a very persistent demand for gold in many parts of the world. Reserve managers, central banks that are buying gold in lieu of what traditionally would have been treasuries?
所以我认为那是一个重要的信号。美国是否需要担心不仅仅是其他央行开始出售国债？如果他们真的面临压力，因为日元并不是我唯一受到压力的货币。是的，我认为我们相当关注黄金。你在世界许多地方看到对黄金非常持续的需求。储备管理者、央行正在购买黄金，以替代传统上会购买的国债？
Presumably? Not presumably. Certainly. I think that is something we need a part of. Why I like gold as a as you own, a part of that in your portfolio is I do think that is you're playing alongside other central banks. Other reserve managers are saying, you know what, I feel more comfortable being in gold, or at least at the margin, owning more gold relative to treasuries. So that is a that is a big deal. We got to follow that in terms of other central banks that reduce treasuries.
大概？不是大概，肯定是。我认为这是我们需要注意的一部分。为什么我喜欢黄金作为你投资组合中的一部分，是因为我认为你是在与其他央行并肩作战。其他储备管理者在说，你知道吗，我觉得持有黄金更安心，或者至少是在边际上，相对于国债持有更多黄金。所以这是一件大事。在其他央行减少国债持有方面，我们必须关注这一点。
When we're issuing the sort of size and treasuries that we are today. Every single thing that affects the flow is important. Today. We're relying much more than we ever have on domestic purchase. Think about how much China used to buy, how much Japan used to buy, how much. Many of the other countries in the world use to buy treasuries. There's no doubt they've pulled back somewhat. And so we got to watch that because you got to fund that awful lot domestically now.
当我们今天发行如此规模的国债时，每一个影响资金流动的因素都很重要。如今，我们比以往任何时候都更依赖国内购买。想想中国过去购买多少，日本过去购买多少，世界上许多其他国家过去购买多少国债。毫无疑问，他们已经有所回撤。所以我们必须关注这一点，因为你现在必须在国内筹集大量资金。
更进一步：量化金融体系
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