通胀数据分化，美联储9月或按兵不动

The July CPI report pointed in two directions. Headline inflation remained high, largely due to earlier oil and energy spikes linked to the Middle East conflict, while core inflation continued to edge lower. How the Federal Reserve weighs that divergence, looking through volatile energy prices versus concerns about second round effects or still above target inflation levels will formulate the path for rates at the September FOMC meeting and beyond.

If the Fed emphasizes the softer core reading and treats energy pressures as temporary and geopolitical, it may have more flexibility to hold rates steady in September, preserve optionality, and wait for stronger evidence that underlying inflation is trending near target. If the Fed focuses on still elevated headline inflation, the risk of another oil price surge, incomplete progress on core inflation, or stressing that patience has limits while inflation remains above target, it may take a more hawkish stance, raising the odds of a hike in 2026.

Current reaction in the bond market, as indicated by the CME Fed Watch tool, shows the odds of a hike in September decreased from 52% to 48% hike versus no hike to 62% no hike and 38% hike after the release of the CPI data.