通胀数据软化，英伟达5000亿美元计划引关注

FROM NEW YORK CITY, FOR OUR VIEWERS WORLDWIDE, I’M EMILY GRAFFEO. "BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD" STARTS RIGHT NOW. EMILY: COMING UP, INFLATION DATA SIGNALS EASING PRICING PRESSURES, GIVING THE FEDERAL RESERVE SOME ROOM TO BREATHE AS IT CONSIDERS ITS NEXT MOVE. AND NVIDIA SUES INVESTOR ANXIETY WITH THE HELP OF SOME OF THE BIGGEST NAMES IN FINANCE. WE BEGIN WITH THE BIG ISSUE, THE PATH FOR INFLATION.

DEFINITELY GOT SOME REASONABLY GOOD DATA, AT LEAST FROM A HEADLINE STANDPOINT. BUT I THINK THERE’S SOME CAUTION TO BE HAD IN HERE.

WE’RE STILL ABOVE THOSE TARGETS.

TO DO SOMETHING TO PROVE THAT IT REALLY IS SERIOUS ABOUT INFLATION

WE HAVE AN INFLATION PROBLEM, WHICH WE’RE GOING TO HEAL SLOWLY HERE.

THE FED SHOULD PANIC A LITTLE BIT AND RAISE INTEREST RATES.

PRETEND WE’RE SITTING AT ROUGHLY 50-50.

THERE’S A LONG WAY TO GO BETWEEN THE ACTUAL FED MEETING.

THE FED HAS SOME TIME ESSENTIALLY TO ASSESS THE NEXT MOVE SO ONE DATA POINT ALONE ISN’T GOING TO BE ENOUGH.

WE’LL JUST HAVE TO KEEP WATCHING AND WAITING.

IT’S REALLY THAT INFLATION PICTURE THAT GUIDES US TO SAY THIS IS NOT A TIME TO BE RAISING RATES.

PROBABLY SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF A DOVISH REPRICING OF FRONT-END U.S. RATES.

PEOPLE KEEP TALKING ABOUT HIGHER FOR LONGER. THIS IS NORMAL. THIS IS A TESTAMENT TO THE FACT THAT THE ECONOMY IS DOING WELL. EMILY: THE PICTURE AFTER THE DATA THIS MORNING AND THIS WEEK, YOU CAN SEE THE THREE MEASURES OF INFLATION, C.P.I., P.P.I. REALLY SPIKED UP EARLIER THIS YEAR, SPIKING OIL PRICES. WE’RE NOW SEEING INFLATION START TO DECELERATE. IT’S JUST A SMALL LINE, BUT IT IS COMING DOWN. WE HAVE TO WAIT A COUPLE MORE WEEKS TO GET THE P.C.E.

RATING. BUT AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK, THE STORY IS THAT INFLATION PICTURE LOOKS A LITTLE BIT MORE BENIGN THAN PERHAPS TRADERS WERE EXPECTING, EVEN JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR WHAT THE FED IS GOING TO DO NEXT? HAS IT RAISED THE BAR FOR A FED SNAKE YOU CAN SEE ON THE CHART HERE, ANYTHING ABOVE A 25 INDICATES WHEN THE MARKET IS EXPECTING THE NEXT HIKE, ANYTHING BELOW THAT BASICALLY MEANS TRADERS SEE THE MARKET ON HOLD.

THE FED ON HOLD, SO WE CAN NOW SEE EXPECTATIONS MOVING OUT TO 2027, JUST A FEW DAYS AGO REALLY TRADERS WERE STILL EXPECTING THAT HIKE THIS YEAR. SO THE PICTURE REALLY HAS SHIFTED, BUT ANYTHING COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. WITH INFLATION STILL FIRMLY ABOVE THE FED’S TARGET, EARLIER TODAY CLEVELAND FED PRESIDENT BETH HAMMACK WAS CALLING FOR ACTION SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.

MY VIEW IS WE NEED TO ACT NOW. I DISSENTED AT OUR LAST MEETING BECAUSE I BELIEVE THAT WE NEED TO ACT TO BRING INFLATION BACK DOWN TO TARGET. WE HAVE THAT DUAL MANDATE SET BY CONGRESS. RIGHT NOW I DON’T SEE ANY TENSION IN THAT BAND-AID. SO YOU’VE GOT A LABOR MARKET THAT’S BROADLY STABLE, RIGHT AROUND MY ESTIMATE OF MAXIMUM UNEMPLOYMENT. AND YOU’VE GOT INFLATION THAT HAS BEEN MISSING OUR TARGET FOR MORE THAN FIVE YEARS.

I THINK IT’S REALLY CRITICAL THAT WE ACT NOW TO MAKE SURE THAT WE CAN BRING INFLATION BACK DOWN TO TARGET. EMILY: BLOOMBERG’S INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY CORRESPONDENT, MIKE MCKEE, JOINS US FOR MORE. WITH A CHART IN HAND, BEFORE WE GET TO YOUR CHART, JUST A REACTION TO HAMMACK’S COMMENTS AND WHY SHE’S STILL DISSENTING, EVEN AFTER THE COOLER THAN EXPECTED DATA WE GOT THIS WEEK. MIKE: THE IMPORTANT PART OF HER COMMENT IN TERMS OF THAT IS THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN A 2% TARGET IN FIVE YEARS.

IF YOU GO BACK TO BEFORE THE WAR, THE MIDDLE EAST WAR, WE’RE AT INFLATION LEVELS THAT WERE EQUAL TO WHAT WE SAW THE END OF FEBRUARY. AND THAT WASN’T GOOD ENOUGH FOR HER OR THE OTHER HAWKS ON THE FED AT THAT TIME. SO THEY’RE NOT HAPPY WITH IT RIGHT NOW. EVEN LOOKING THROUGH THE WAR EFFECTS, THEY’RE ESTIMATING WE’RE GOING TO NEED TO DO MORE WORK TO BRING INFLATION DOWN. THEY’RE NOT TIGHT ENOUGH RIGHT NOW. EMILY: MIKE, SHOW US YOUR CHART.

MIKE: OK, BASICALLY HERE’S THE ARGUMENT THAT THEY MAKE. IF YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THE DIFFUSION OF INFLATION IN THE C.P.I. REPORT YESTERDAY, YOU CAN SEE THAT THE WHITE LINE THERE IS BASICALLY WHAT IS BETWEEN 2% AND 4 HERSELF PERCENT, THE SECTORS BETWEEN 2% AND 4% INFLATION IN THE MONTHS, AND THAT SHOWS THAT 58% OF THE SECTORS ARE STILL BETWEEN 2% AND 4%. THEY’RE ABOVE THE 2% TARGET. AND SO THAT TELLS YOU THAT THERE’S STILL MORE WORK TO BE DONE.

NOW, YOU CAN ADD ON TO THAT BY LOOKING AT P.P.I. TODAY AND SAYING, WELL, ONE OF THE REASONS IT WAS DOWN WAS A BIG DROP IN ENERGY PRICES THAT LOOKED TO BE REBOUNDING FOR AUGUST, AND ALSO WE SAW SOME A.I.-RELATED PRICE PRESSURES IN THAT P.P.I. REPORT, PARTICULARLY FOR TRANSFORMERS AND POWER GENERATORS, UP 4%. SO THERE ARE REASONS OUT THERE TO THINK THAT WE MIGHT SEE A REBOUND IN SOME OF THESE BETTER THAN EXPECTED NUMBERS WHEN WE GET THE AUGUST DATA IN SEPTEMBER, AND IT COMES IN EARLY SEPTEMBER BEFORE THEY MEET AGAIN.

EMILY: OUR THANKS TO BLOOMBERG’S MIKE MCKEE. LET’S DIG INTO ALL OF THIS WITH OUR ROUNDTABLE. THE CHIEF INVESTMENT AND PORTFOLIO STRATEGIST FOR AMERICA AT BLACKROCK. AND THE HEAD OF FIXED INCOME CLIENT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT AT VANGUARD. THANK YOU BOTH FOR JOINING US ON THIS SUMMER THURSDAY HERE. MATT, LET’S START WITH YOU, YOUR REACTION TO THE INFLATION DATA THAT WE GOT THIS WEEK.

I DON’T THINK WE’RE OUT OF THE WOODS JUST YET. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE DATA POINTS THAT WE HAVE TO REALLY GET THROUGH, IT IS A TWO DATA POINT DECISION COMING IN DECEMBER. IT’S GOING TO BE REALLY IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND WHERE THE NEXT NUMBER LANDS. BUT ALSO UNDERSTANDING WHAT THE HEALTH OF THE LABOR MARKET LOOKS LIKE. SO WE ARE A BIT ON HOLD. MAYBE THE ECONOMIC BACK DROP TAKES A LITTLE BIT OF A BREATHER HERE, AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.

EMILY: YOUR VIEW?

SURE, SO ABSOLUTELY TO MIKE’S POINT, HE HAS A WONDERFUL CHART ABOUT THE BREAKUP ABOVE # AND 4. BUT WHEN WE LOOK AT CORE C.P.I. ON A THREE-MONTH ANNUALIZED BASIS, ON A SIX-MONTH ANNUALIZED BASIS, AND THEN ON 12 MORE OR YEAR OVER YEAR, WHAT WE’RE SEEING IS ON THE MOST RECENT PRINT, SO THE THREE-MONTH ANNUALIZED, AROUND 1.5%. ON THE SIX-MONTH ANNUALIZED, A LITTLE BIT BELOW 2.5%. SO WHILE THERE’S CERTAINLY SOME CONCERNS AROUND INFLATION NOT GETTING TO THE TARGET, WHICH BETH HAMMACK WAS POINTING TO, RIGHTLY SO, THERE’S ALSO SOME REALLY POSITIVE SIGNS WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE MOST RECENT DATA, AND ON TOP OF THAT, AS MANY OF US KNOW, THERE’S GOING TO BE SOME REVISIONS, A METHODOLOGY CHANGE ON SEPTEMBER 30, WHICH WILL HAVE CHANGES ALSO TO THE P.C.E.

TRAJECTORY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR. I THINK THAT’S ALL POSITIVE. EMILY: AND THE P.C.E. IS WHAT THE FED CLAIMS THAT THEY PREFER TO LOOK AT. WHAT DO YOU THINK IT MEANS FOR FED POLICY THEN? ARE WE NOW NOT GOING TO SEE A HIKE UNTIL NEXT YEAR?

WE’RE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE WATER YET. I THINK IT’S TOO EARLY FOR US TO DEFINITELY DECLARE VICTORY ON INFLATION. HOWEVER, BASED ON BOTH THE LABOR MARKET AS WELL AS NOT JUST ONE INFLATION PRINT, BUT THE SERIES OF INFLATION PRINTS THAT WE HAVE GOTTEN, I THINK IT’S FAIR TO SAY THAT WE SHOULD GET USED TO THESE HIGHER LEVELS FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. I DON’T THINK THE NEXT MOVE, OR AT LEAST IN SEPTEMBER, I DON’T THINK THE FED HAS ENOUGH DATA TO BE ABLE TO HIKE QUITE YET.

AND I DON’T THINK WE AS MARKET PARTICIPANTS KNOW FOR NOW WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN IN OCTOBER AND DECEMBER. SO I THINK LET’S ADJUST, AND I THINK THE EQUITY MARKETS, AS WELL AS THE BOND MARKETS, HAVE DONE A REALLY GOOD JOB OF ADJUSTING TO THE 3.75 VIEW OF THE WORLD, AND YOU SEE THAT IN THE FIXED INCOME FLOWS COMING IN, ESPECIALLY WITH THESE ALL-TIME HIGH LEVEL OF YIELDS, AS WELL AS IN EQUITIES, WITH A MAZING FLOWS COMING IN THERE TOO.

EMILY: DO YOU THINK A HOLD IS BASICALLY A DONE DEAL FOR SEPTEMBER, OR IS THERE A CHANCE THAT SOMETHING COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS?

IT’S GOING TO HAVE TO BE BASED UPON THE DATA, NUMBER ONE. AND NUMBER TWO, JACKSON HOLE IS COMING UP. I DON’T THINK WE HAVE A LARGE ANTICIPATION OF A SHIFT IN TONE. MAYBE WE GET A LITTLE BIT MORE UNDERSTANDING WHY THERE’S BEEN A SHIFT IN COMMUNICATION ST

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