美国30年期国债拍卖收益率创2001年来新高

THIS IS BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY, REPORTING FROM THE MAGAZINE THAT HELPS GLOBAL LEADERS TO THEY HAD WITH INSET ON THE PEOPLE, COMPANIES AND TRENDS SHAPING TODAY'S COMPLEX ECONOMY. PLUS GLOBAL BUSINESS, FINANCE AND TECH NEWS AS IT HAPPENS. WITH CAROL MASSAR AND TIM STENOVEC, LIVE ON BLOOMBERG RADIO, TELEVISION AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. CAROL: GOOD AFTERNOON EVERYBODY ACROSS BLOOMBERG PLATFORMS. WELCOME TO BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY.

IT IS THURSDAY AUGUST 13. NOT QUITE A FRIDAY THE 13TH. TIM: FEELS LIKE FRIDAY THE 13TH, I WILL BE HONEST. [LAUGHTER] HERE WE GO. WE GOT THIS. CAROL: IT HAS BEEN ONE OF THOSE DAYS FOR US. WELCOME. WE ARE DELIGHTED TO HAVE YOU WITH US. TIM: I DON'T KNOW IF YOU ARE LONG IN THIS MARKET, YOU ARE PRETTY HAPPY LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY A RECORD CLOSE FOR THE S&P 500. CHARLIE PELLETT WILL HAVE DETAILS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF STOCKS ARE A THREE TO ONE RATIO.

THE S&P UP .5%. MONTH TODAY SO FAR UP 4%. CAROL: NOT TOO CHEVY IF YOU ARE A BULL. YOU HAVE INVESTORS SAYING MODERATING INFLATION PERHAPS, SO MAY BE THE FED DOES NOT HAVE TO DO ANYTHING, AND REFRAIN FROM RAISING INTEREST RATES NEXT MONTH. TIM: DOES A LOT OF ECONOMIC DATA WE GET BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. CAROL: I AM JUST TELLING YOU WHAT PEOPLE ARE THINKING. MAY BE THE FED IS SAYING NOT NOW WHEN IT COMES TO RAISING RATES NEXT MONTH.

A LOT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. AHEAD THIS HOUR, WE WE'LL GET INTO THE LATEST TREASURY AUCTION, 30 YEAR. TIM: THAT AUCTION DRAWING ITS HIGHEST YIELD SINCE 2001. WHAT IT ALL MEANS FOR US THAN FOR YOU. CAROL: ALSO ON THE TRADE, UP UP AND AWAY AND WHY THE BACKDROP IS SUPPORTIVE OF THE NEAR AND LONG-TERM UPSIDE. WE HAVE UBS'S ALIGNMENT PARTNERS WITH US IN THE HOUSE. TIM: IS SHE IN THE HOUSE WITH US? I AM GIVING HER A HARD TIME.

SHE DOES NOT REALLY COME TO NEW YORK CITY IN THE SUMMER. IT'S PRETTY GREAT. CAROL: TOTALLY GET IT. TIM: WE CANNOT GET ENOUGH FOR THE RACE FOR CRITICAL MINERALS. YOU DID A DEEP DIVE EARLIER ON THIS. EARLIER THIS WEEK WE DID SPEAK TO GARY EVANS AT U.S. ANTIMONY AHEAD OF THEIR EARNINGS CONVERSATION. BUT WE ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO HAVING LIBBY'S STOP BY EARLIER. CAROL: ESPECIALLY SINCE PRESIDENT TRUMP TALKING ABOUT U.S. INVESTMENTS LAST WEEK.

A BIG TO-DO. AND WE HAVE A BLOOMBERG MARKETS MAGAZINE FEATURE ON HOW AI LOOMS OVER SOFTWARE COMPANIES AND THE INVESTORS WHO PILED INTO THEM. A DEEP DIVE. IT IS THE MONEY ISSUE FOR BLOOMBERG MARKETS MAGAZINE. TIM: SPEAKING OF LATER ON, I WANT TO GIVE A SHOUT TO OUR 4:00 P.M. HOUR. THE RECIPIENT OF THE NOBLE PRIZE IN ECONOMIC SCIENCES WILL BE JOINING US, HE HAS A NEW BOOK OUT. CAROL: WE ARE OBSESSED. OUR WHOLE TEAM HAS BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS FOR A WHILE.

TIM: WE WANT YOU TO BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBMIT SOME QUESTIONS. JUST GO TO BLOOMBERG.COM/ASKRADIO. IT'S EXCLUSIVE TO BLOOMBERG.COM SUBSCRIBERS AND SUBSCRIBERS OF THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL. KEEP THEM COMING. CAROL: YOU CAN ASK THOSE QUESTIONS ABOUT ANY OF OUR GUEST SEGMENTS. FIRST UP, WHEN IT COMES TO THE MARKETS LET'S SEE WHAT IS GOING ON IN YOUR TOP BUSINESS STORIES. CHARLIE: THE SALE OF 30 YEAR DEBT, GOVERNMENT SOLD 30 YEAR BONDS AT A 5.216% RATE.

THAT IS THE HIGHEST SINCE 2001. IT DOES REFLECT A RELENTLESS SELLOFF IN THE MARKET. S&P PUSHING HIGHER. EARLIER TODAY WE WERE TRADING ABOVE 7800 ON THE S&P, UP 0.5%. NEEDLESS TO SAY IT IS A RECORD. THE NUMBER77.57. ANY CLOSE ABOVE THAT WILL BE A NEW HIGH ON THE S&P.77.91 WHERE WE STAND RIGHT NOW. THE DOW LOWERED, LITTLE CHANGED, DOWN NINE POINTS, A DROP OF UNDER .1%. MASTEC UP .7%. THE NASDAQ 100 INDEX UP 1.2%. CISCO END CE -- CISCO DOWN 9%.

THE TWO YEAR, 4.14%. THE 10 YEAR, 4.64%. THE 30 YEAR, 5.21%. GOLD AT 43.58. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE $81.48 A BARREL. BRENT CRUDE $87.17, A DROP OF 2%. AMONG THE OIL SUPER MAJORS TODAY, EXXON MOBIL DOWN .6%. CHEVRON SHARES UP .5%. CONOCOPHILLIPS LOWER BY 2.1%. FOR ON-DEMAND NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY, SUBSCRIBE TO BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW WHEREVER YOU GET YOUR PODCASTS. THAT'S A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. CAROL: THE U.S. GOVERNMENT SELLING $25 BILLION WORTH OF 30 YEAR BONDS TODAY.

WE FOUND OUT HOW THE AUCTION WENT. DRAW, HE SAID LIKE YOU'RE FROM NEW JERSEY. I AM PROUD OF IT. TIM: HE SPENT A COUPLE YEARS OUTSIDE OF NEW JERSEY IN YOUR LIFE. CAROL: IN NEW YORK. [LAUGHTER] THAT CAN BE SO COMPLEMENTARY TO A NEW JERSEY ACCENT. THE AUCTION DREW ITS HIGHEST YIELD SINCE 2001, 5.216% VERSUS A 2.12% WHEN ISSUED YIELD AT THE NEW YORK BIDDING DEADLINE. THAT WAS A SIGN THAT THE MEN FELL SLIGHTLY SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS -- THAT DEMAND FELL SLIGHTLY SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS.

TIM: LET'S START WITH THE AUCTION AND WHAT INVESTORS ENDED UP PAYING FOR IT. YOUR TAKE AWAY FROM THIS?

THE AUCTION WAS A SMALL, TINY BIT HIGHER YIELD THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED AT 1:00 WHEN THE AUCTION CLOSED. THE BIDDING METRICS WERE COMPLETELY AVERAGE OF THE LAST YEAR'S WORTH OF REFUNDING OPTIONS. NOT A BIG SURPRISE. I THINK DEALERS AND OTHER INVESTORS WERE SET UP FOR THIS. THAT IS WHY YOU SAW A BIT OF YIELD CURVE STEEPENING BETWEEN THE 10 AND 30 YEAR YESTERDAY WHERE 30 YEAR YIELDS WERE A BIT HIGHER THAN 10 YEAR YIELDS DAY ON DAY.

IT WAS NOT A BIG SURPRISE. PEOPLE ARE NOT BALKING AT BUYING DEBT EVEN THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO HAVE DEFICITS ON 6% OF GDP. CAROL: SOMETIMES IF SOMEONE SAYS YOUR AVERAGE, IT IS NOT A COMPLIMENT, BUT IN THIS CASE BEING AVERAGE IS A GOOD THING. CHARLIE: THE TREND FOR THE TREASURY AUCTIONS RECENTLY HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD. WE HAD BASICALLY ONE MONTH WHERE WE HAD PRETTY BAD AUCTIONS AND THAT WAS IN MARCH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WAR.

SINCE THEN, THE PRIMARY MARKET HAS BEEN REASONABLY DECENT. PART OF IT IS NOW THAT WE ARE ABOVE 5% IN 30 YEAR YIELDS, THE HIGHEST YIELDS IN THE LAST 25 YEARS, I THINK YOU ARE ATTRACTING SOME LIABILITY DRIVEN INVESTORS. THESE ARE PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE COMPANIES THAT LIKE A 5% BOOK YIELD. THEY BUY TREASURIES, IT IS VERY LIQUID. INSTEAD OF BUYING 30 YEAR CORPORATE BONDS, WHICH MAY BE THEY CANNOT BUY ENOUGH SIZE OR WITH SPREADS AS TIGHT AS THEY AREN'T THEY DON'T FIND THEM OVERLY ATTRACTIVE, SO THEY ARE COMING INTO BUYING TREASURIES.

WE GOT HERE, SO THAT MEANS THERE WERE SOME WHO DID NOT WANT TO BUY BEFORE WE GOT HERE. NOW I SUSPECT WE FOUND AN EQUILIBRIUM AND NOW THE QUESTION IS WHAT CAUSES YIELDS TO GO BACK DOWN TO 475? I'M NOT SURE IT IS THERE. PART OF THAT IS BECAUSE YIELDS ON THE LONG END OF THE WORLD ARE STARTING TO GO UP DRAMATICALLY. TIM: A MUCH HIGHER COULD IT GO FOR THE 30 YEAR -- HOW MUCH HIGHER COULD IT GO FOR THE 30 YEAR IN THE U.S.?

IRA: I THINK WE WILL HAVE HER TO 475 OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS. COULD WE GO TO 5.6%? I DON'T THINK WE WILL, IN PART BECAUSE I THINK THAT REALLY YIELDS, TALKING ABOUT THE YIELD ON 30 YEAR TIPS, BEING AT 3%, IT DOES NOT SEEM TO WANT TO BREAK ABOVE THAT. UNLESS WE GET A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LONG-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, WHICH I DON'T EXPECT AND I DON'T SEE WHY THAT WOULD OCCUR AT THIS POINT IN TIME, I THINK WE ARE PROBABLY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HIGH.

CAN WE GET TO 525 OR 530? MAYBE. I SUSPECT WE ARE RETESTING THE CYCLE HIGHS FOR THIS ECONOMIC CYCLE CAROL: A BIT OF A BUMMER FOR THE U.S. GOVERNMENT WHO HAS TO PAY THE DEBT. HIGHER RATES. CHARLIE: IT'S HIGHER RATES, BUT $25 MILLION OF 30 YEAR. THAT IS NOT GREAT. BUT AT THE SAME TIME IT IS WHAT WILL HURT THEM A LOT MORE ARE WHAT IS GOING ON WITH TBILLS AND TO YEAR YIELDS -- TWO YEAR YIELDS. THERE'S A LOT MORE OF THAT OUT THERE.

THAT 50 BASIS POINT SELLOFF WILL INCREASE THE COST OF THE GOVERNMENT MORE THAN WHAT THEY ARE DOING ON THE LONG END. THAT ALMOST IS ALSO RAN. CAROL: THIS IS WHY WE TALK TO YOU. THANK YOU. HE IS THE PART INTELLIGENCE CHIEF U.S. INTEREST RATES STRATEGIST. THAT IS THE U.S. RATE PICTURE. LET'S GET TO THE U.S. MARKETS AND INVESTMENT LANDSCAPE. TIM: LET'S GET TO MANAGING DIRECTOR FOR WEALTH MANAGEMENT AND PRIVATE WEALTH ADVISOR AT ALIGNMENT PARTNERS AT UBS, WHICH HAS OVER $1 BILLION IN ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT AS OF MIDYEAR.

SHE'S OUT ON LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. CAROL: WE WANT TO SEE THE COST. -- COAST. I WANT TO SEE THE BEACH. TIM: YOU CAN JUST