哥伦比亚7.4级地震冲击新总统执政与经济

[music] Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. The race to find survivors of a 7.4 magnitude earthquake continues across Western Columbia. Rescue workers called for silence as they picked through rubble, listening for signs of life. Hundreds of people are dead and thousands more are injured or missing.

The problem is not just the physical damage. Bloomberg's Oscar Medina is based [music] in Bogota.

We don't really understand the magnitude of the impact because a lot of roads are blocked. There is no phone or internet signal.

Oscar says rescue efforts have varied from one state to another and they've been complicated by difficult terrain, limited power and internet infrastructure, years of poverty and civil conflict in the hardest hit areas. Choko, the epicenter of the quake, is one of the [music] poorest states in the country.

Some people uh have to sleep outside the their homes because their houses are destroyed. So that's the challenge for for the government because they have to find ways to finance [music] food, shelter, rescue, temporary housing. The task of overseeing all of that falls to Colombia's president Abelardo de la Espria, someone who hadn't held public office before. The earthquake happened just after he was inaugurated.

I mean, it Monday was the the first business day of his presidency.

Travis Waldron helps edit Bloomberg's coverage of Latin America from Brazilia.

And at 7:30 in the morning, there's this massive earthquake that demands all of his attention. De la Espria, a right-wing candidate who ran on an austerity platform, had promised to cut as much as 40% of Colombia's budget. [music] But this national tragedy threatens to upend his plans for the country.

There's a real chance for substantial impact here. And you know, we'll have to see in the coming days what it proves to be. [music] I'm David Gera and this is the [music] big take from Bloomberg News. Today on the show, Colombia grapples with the fallout from a major disaster during its new president's first week on the job. [music] When a massive earthquake struck Colombia on Monday, it hit one of the country's main economic engines, one [music] of its lucrative coffee growing regions.

It's a multi-billion dollar industry which exports roughly a million60 kg bags of coffee every month. Bloomberg's Oscar Medina says the earthquake caused significant damage and shut down the Buenavventura port. It started restoring some of its operations on Thursday. [music]

We spoke to the head of a coffee exporter organization that said that actually exports are largely halted. So we we don't have estimates yet about the economic costs but in 1999 there was a a similar earthquake that earthquake had an economic impact of 2.2 percentage points of GDP. So if we bring that to today's prices that could be uh something more than $10 billion. And Oscar, if that wasn't complicated enough, Colombia has this new president who is now in charge of overseeing the rescue and recovery efforts.

What's his background?

Despa was um a trial lawyer and he was a a businessman and nobody thought he was going to he was going to make it to the presidency because he was he's an outsider in Colombian politics. He hasn't held any public office. I mean, he's a showman. He used to be uh like a political commentator, but he was controversial. One of the most interesting things of the campaign, he saw himself as the tiger. The I mean, it's it's funny.

I mean, like with the tiger's claw, we're going to destroy the left. And when he won and he beat the ally of former president Gustavo Pedro who was very strong at the moment. That was a complete surprise. And he he pledged to break ties of traditional politics and political parties.

During his uh inauguration address, he said, quote, "The time for restoring order, authority, and freedom has begun." What did he mean by that? former President Proed had a policy of negotiating with armed [music] groups. So you wouldn't see like large um military operations against criminal groups or guerilla organizations. And that was one of the biggest promises of President Lasprea that he was going to end those peace processes and would use the the force of the state.

And actually on Monday there were some news about some camps of an illegal group, the ELN. That's Colombia's oldest gerilla and [clears throat] it was bombed by by the army. So that's his top line on security.

You mentioned Colombia's former president Gustavo Petro. He was a a left-wing president. How big a shift has this been from pro to de la Espria? The Laspa's victory was very narrow. None of the candidates even got to 50%. The difference was just like less than 1 percentage point. So the country is very divided. He he managed to create an alliance with traditional political parties to create a majority in both the Senate and the lower house.

But while he has a majority in Congress today, it's not undisputed.

Travis, I want to turn back to Colombia's economy. What kind of economic challenges did this new president inherit before this earthquake struck?

Well, the the economy itself, it depends heavily in on what happens with the coffee industry in this area, I think. And then Colombia is already facing steep fiscal challenges and budgetary concerns. It's high interest rates, high inflation. Uh when Petrol left office, he estimated the fiscal deficit uh for the coming year at around 5%. The incoming finance minister says it's closer to 8%. Which, you know, in nominal terms would put it among the highest in the region and I believe in the world.

And of course, in a country like Colombia, as with anywhere, you know, you can say you're going to slash spending, but when it comes to social benefits, uh, popular programs, it's it's more difficult to do in practice than it is as a campaign pledge. And the left remains pretty forceful. And on the day of of the new leader inauguration was already organizing protests and is kind of ready to pounce on any mistake. You're getting at what's really kind of the the central tension here, this this new president's appetite for reform. and then this tragedy happening so soon in his his tenure, how much has it upended his ability to implement these reforms, his appetite for for implementing these reforms?

I think that's still to be determined and so it's going to take some time to really understand the level of damage and the and what will be necessary to foster recovery here. They've also declared or or announced intentions to declare an economic emergency, which would give him some leeway to issue decrees on taxes or spending without congressional approval related to the earthquake. But that sort of cuts against what his plans were, right?

I mean, his plans were to come in and do a big fiscal package and to the extent that he was going to bolster the state was on the front of the fight against armed rebel groups that have, you know, seized some new territories in in more remote parts of Colombia. So, it that it's obviously going to be a huge complication for his plan. You know, there could be a rally around the flag effect that that helps him, but of course, any misstep, any perception that he's not handling the recovery well could put him off on the wrong foot really quickly.

Oscar, what does that economic state of emergency that Travis mentioned allow the president to do? And what are the limitations on that?

A declaration of economic emergency gives the president the right to pass legislation for 30 days. That's especially to pass taxes and raise revenue as fast as they can. So while the finance minister said that they wouldn't raise taxes, the president could set uh increases to the VAT or corporate taxes or would have authority to take on multilateral lending. I mean it's a very powerful tool. He could declare uh curfews in in cities.

It's going to be for 30 days that could be extended up to 90 days. There has been the us