AI 模型定价战：DeepSeek 涨价、Gemini 降价、Grok 崛起
A few days changed the entire game:
A few days changed the entire game:
几天时间改变了整个游戏格局：
- DeepSeek V4 Pro’s cache-hit input price will rise from $0.003625 to as much as $0.044 per million tokens during peak hours - a 1,114% increase.
- Gemini 3.7 Flash launched at 50% below Gemini 3.6 Flash’s original price. Google has temporarily extended the same promotional rate to 3.6 Flash. The discount officially expires at the end of 2026, although I suspect Google may keep it.
- One day earlier, xAI showed what it was capable of with Grok 4.6: near-frontier intelligence at $2 per million input tokens and $6 per million output tokens and fantastic SOTA frontier intelligence
- DeepSeek V4 Pro 的缓存命中输入价格在高峰时段将从每百万 tokens 0.003625 美元上涨至 0.044 美元——涨幅高达 1,114%。
- Gemini 3.7 Flash 以比 Gemini 3.6 Flash 原价低 50% 的价格推出。谷歌暂时将相同的促销价格延长至 3.6 Flash。该折扣正式于 2026 年底到期，尽管我怀疑谷歌可能会保留它。
- 一天前，xAI 展示了其 Grok 4.6 的能力：接近前沿的智能，输入每百万 tokens 2 美元，输出每百万 tokens 6 美元，以及出色的 SOTA 前沿智能。
DeepSeek’s announced price increase makes it a significantly worse deal. Within a remarkably short time, Grok has emerged as a serious frontier competitor. Gemini 3.7 delivered meaningful improvements just over three weeks after 3.6 while cutting the original price in half. Yet in my view, OpenAI’s GPT‑5.6 Luna remains the price-performance king.
DeepSeek 宣布的涨价使其性价比大打折扣。在极短的时间内，Grok 已成为一个严肃的前沿竞争者。Gemini 3.7 在 3.6 发布仅三周多后就带来了有意义的改进，同时将原价减半。然而在我看来，OpenAI 的 GPT-5.6 Luna 仍然是性价比之王。
The only major lab that currently feels off the pace is Anthropic. It has confidentially filed for an IPO reportedly targeted for this fall, and some investors reportedly expect a valuation of around $2 trillion at listing. Its latest confirmed private valuation, however, was $965 billion.
目前唯一感觉落后的大型实验室是 Anthropic。据报道，它已秘密提交 IPO 申请，目标可能在今年秋季上市，一些投资者预计上市时估值约为 2 万亿美元。然而，其最新确认的私募估值为 9650 亿美元。
For me, Opus has been a major disappointment (already mentioned that several times, but each day im shocked again how bad it is), and that frustration is echoed by many of the people I speak with. Sonnet 5, meanwhile, doesn’t look like a compelling mid-tier price-performance competitor against the latest alternatives.
对我来说，Opus 是一个巨大的失望（已经多次提到，但每天我再次震惊于它有多糟糕），这种挫败感在我交谈的许多人中也得到了共鸣。与此同时，Sonnet 5 看起来并不是一个能与最新替代品抗衡的有吸引力的中端性价比竞争者。
A few days changed the entire game.
几天时间改变了整个游戏格局。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力