实体B2B碾压软件：Shopify+34%、Toast+23%
B2B For Physical Products Is Crushing It: Shopify +34%, Toast +23%, Samsara +30%
给做B2B SaaS的读者一个清晰的判断框架：定价单位选人头还是吞吐量，直接决定你能否吃到AI红利。文中用Shopify、Toast、Samsara与Procore的对比，给出了可验证的机制和数字，值得一读。
AI is beating down many public software companies. But not many of the leaders servicing the physical world.
人工智能正在击垮许多上市软件公司，但服务于实体世界的领军者中，受影响的不多。
Some is that they don’t tie pricing models primarily to seats. But it isn’t only the pricing model. Their customers’ end products aren’t the ones AI is eating.
部分原因在于它们并非主要按席位定价。但不仅仅是定价模式，它们的客户的最终产品并不是人工智能正在吞噬的对象。
Shopify reported strong and accelerated earnings this past quarter. Revenue $3.58B, up 34%, 33% in constant currency. GMV $115.6B, up 32%, the fifth consecutive quarter above 30%. Operating income $488M against $291M a year ago. Free cash flow $654M at an 18% margin, up from 16%. The stock went up almost 20% on the print.
Shopify 本季度财报表现强劲且加速增长。营收 35.8 亿美元，同比增长 34%，按固定汇率计算增长 33%。GMV 达 1156 亿美元，同比增长 32%，连续第五个季度增长超过 30%。营业收入 4.88 亿美元，去年同期为 2.91 亿美元。自由现金流 6.54 亿美元，利润率为 18%，高于去年的 16%。财报发布后股价上涨近 20%。
Toast reported no deceleration and a record number of net new restaurant additions. Revenue $1.91B, up 23%. ARR $2.4B, up 25%. A record 9,500 net new locations in a single quarter. Recurring gross profit streams up 28%, faster than revenue. They raised full-year recurring gross profit growth guidance to 23-25% from 21-23%.
Toast 没有出现减速，新增餐厅数量创下纪录。营收 19.1 亿美元，同比增长 23%。ARR 达 24 亿美元，同比增长 25%。单季度净新增 9500 家门店，创历史新高。经常性毛利润增长 28%，快于营收增长。他们将全年经常性毛利润增长指引从 21-23% 上调至 23-25%。
Samsara selling to the connected transportation world and related segments is not slowing down. ARR $1.99B, up 30%, with revenue up 31%. Net new ARR of $101M, itself up 30%. ARR from $1M+ customers up 62% and accelerating for the fourth straight quarter. Third consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability.
Samsara 服务于互联运输及相关领域，业务并未放缓。ARR 达 19.9 亿美元，同比增长 30%，营收增长 31%。新增 ARR 为 1.01 亿美元，本身增长 30%。来自 100 万美元以上客户的 ARR 增长 62%，连续第四个季度加速增长。连续第三个季度实现 GAAP 盈利。
For comparison, the median public B2B company is growing about 13%. Salesforce’s most recent quarter was up 13%, and roughly 4 points of that came from the Informatica acquisition. Its full-year guide is 11%, including about 3 points of Informatica.
作为对比，上市 B2B 公司的中位增长率约为 13%。Salesforce 最近一个季度增长 13%，其中约 4 个百分点来自 Informatica 收购。其全年指引为 11%，包括约 3 个百分点的 Informatica 贡献。
Restaurants, shipped goods, and truck fleets are outgrowing CRM by two to three times. Two things are driving it, and the second one matters more.
餐饮、货运和卡车车队的增长速度是 CRM 的两到三倍。有两个因素推动这一现象，其中第二个更为重要。
"AI is a victim of Shopify"
“人工智能是 Shopify 的受害者”
Always a good time with @jordihays and @johncoogan on @tbpn pic.twitter.com/uqef2Y1bsW
与 @jordihays 和 @johncoogan 在 @tbpn 上总是愉快的时光 pic.twitter.com/uqef2Y1bsW
— Harley Finkelstein (@harleyf) August 5, 2026
— Harley Finkelstein (@harleyf) 2026年8月5日
1. None Of Them Are Primarily Priced Per Seat
1. 它们都不是主要按席位定价
Shopify takes a percentage of GMV, processing $78B through Shopify Payments in the quarter at 68% penetration, with cumulative payment volume now past $1 trillion. Toast charges per location plus payments, and added 9,500 locations. Samsara charges per connected asset, so a truck, a trailer, a piece of equipment.
Shopify 按 GMV 的一定比例收费，本季度通过 Shopify Payments 处理了 780 亿美元，渗透率达 68%，累计支付额已超过 1 万亿美元。Toast 按门店数量加支付收费，新增了 9500 家门店。Samsara 按连接的资产收费，如卡车、拖车、设备等。
Seats are not entirely absent from any of them. Toast sells payroll priced per employee. Shopify’s plans meter staff accounts. But headcount is not the engine, and none of the three lead with it. What moves the number is throughput. They grow when the customer sells more, opens more, or moves more, not when the customer adds people.
席位并非完全不存在于这些公司中。Toast 销售按员工计价的工资服务。Shopify 的计划按员工账户计量。但员工人数并非核心驱动力，这三家公司都不以此为主。推动数字的是吞吐量。当客户销售更多、开设更多门店或运输更多时，它们才会增长，而不是当客户增加人员时。
That difference is showing up across the whole market. Total software spend is forecast up 15.5% this year to $1.468 trillion, while CRM, sales, marketing, CX, collaboration, and productivity are all in single digits. The market didn’t stop growing. The unit did.
这种差异正在整个市场中显现。今年软件总支出预计增长15.5%，达到1.468万亿美元，而CRM、销售、营销、客户体验、协作和生产力软件的增长率均为个位数。市场并未停止增长，停止增长的是计价单位。
When your pricing unit is a person, and your customer is under pressure to hold headcount flat while output rises, your growth is capped by their org chart. When your pricing unit is a transaction, a location, or a vehicle, you capture the productivity gain instead of getting squeezed by it.
当你的计价单位是人，而你的客户在产出增加的同时面临保持员工人数不变的压力时，你的增长就会受到他们组织架构的限制。当你的计价单位是交易、地点或车辆时，你就能捕获生产力提升带来的收益，而不是被其挤压。
It also leaves somewhere to go.
这也留下了进一步发展的空间。
Shopify’s $3.58B of revenue is about 3.1% of the $115.6B of GMV crossing its platform. Toast’s $1.91B is about 3.1% of $60.7B of gross payment volume. ServiceTitan earns roughly 1.2% of the $21.7B of transaction volume its contractors invoice, against a stated ceiling closer to 2% at full platform adoption. Growth in this model comes from two places at once, the customer’s volume rising and the slice of it getting bigger, and neither one is near done.
Shopify的35.8亿美元收入约占其平台上1156亿美元GMV的3.1%。Toast的19.1亿美元约占607亿美元总支付额的3.1%。ServiceTitan从其承包商开具的217亿美元交易额中赚取约1.2%的费用，而在全面采用平台后，其既定上限接近2%。在这种模式下，增长同时来自两个方面：客户的交易量上升和平台从中抽取的比例变大，而这两方面都远未达到极限。
2. Their Customers’ End Product Isn’t What AI Is Eating
2. 他们客户的最终产品并非AI正在吞噬的对象
This is the bigger one.
这是更重要的一点。
AI is compressing the categories where the deliverable is text, code, tickets, and documents. Support software, content tools, dev seats, and anything sold on “we help your team produce more of X” where X is knowledge work. The buyer is now asking whether they need fewer seats, or whether an agent replaces the workflow the software was wrapping.
AI正在压缩那些交付物为文本、代码、工单和文档的类别。支持软件、内容工具、开发席位，以及任何以“我们帮助你的团队生产更多X”为卖点的产品，其中X代表知识工作。买家现在开始质疑他们是否需要更少的席位，或者一个AI代理是否会取代软件所包装的工作流程。
None of that applies to a restaurant. AI does not reduce the number of meals served. It does not reduce the number of packages that have to be picked, boxed, and shipped. It does not reduce the number of trucks that have to physically move freight.
这些都不适用于餐厅。AI不会减少供应的餐食数量。它不会减少需要分拣、装箱和运输的包裹数量。它不会减少必须实际运输货物的卡车数量。
ServiceTitan is a useful test of where the line actually sits. Their pricing scales with technician count, so in a narrow sense it looks like a seat model, and they grew 25% last quarter on revenue of $268.8M with gross transaction volume up 23% to $21.7B. But a technician is a unit of physical capacity, not a knowledge worker. No agent is going to crawl under a house. That seat count goes up when demand for the trade goes up, and demand for the trades is not being deflated by a model release.
ServiceTitan是检验这条界限实际位置的有用案例。他们的定价随技术人员数量而变，因此从狭义上看，这看起来像是一种席位模式，而他们上个季度收入为2.688亿美元，增长25%，总交易额增长23%，达到217亿美元。但技术人员是物理产能的单位，而不是知识工作者。没有AI代理会爬到房子下面。当对技工的需求增加时，席位数量就会增加，而对技工的需求并不会因为模型发布而减少。
Shopify’s quarter makes the point from the other direction. Their merchants are seeing a reported 3x surge in traffic from AI shopping surfaces. Agentic commerce is currently a demand tailwind, not a threat, because at the end of an agentic transaction somebody still has to ship an actual object. The agent can find the product. It cannot manufacture it, warehouse it, or put it on a truck.
Shopify的季度业绩从另一个方向证明了这一点。他们的商家报告称，来自AI购物平台的流量激增了3倍。代理商务目前是需求顺风，而非威胁，因为在代理交易的末端，仍然需要有人运送实际物品。代理可以找到产品，但它无法制造、仓储或将其装上卡车。
Compare that to a software company whose customer’s entire output is something an agent can now produce. The end market is being repriced underneath them, and execution doesn’t fix that.
相比之下，一家软件公司的客户的全部产出现在可以由代理生成。终端市场正在他们脚下重新定价，而执行力无法解决这个问题。
The Objection: “These Are Payments Companies With Software Multiples”
反对意见：“这些是支付公司，却享有软件公司的市盈率”
Worth addressing directly, because it is the strongest pushback.
值得直接回应，因为这是最有力的反驳。
A large share of Shopify’s and Toast’s revenue is payments, and payments carries lower gross margin than subscription software. Shopify’s merchant solutions revenue was $2.78B against $802M of subscription solutions.
Shopify和Toast的很大一部分收入来自支付，而支付的毛利率低于订阅软件。Shopify的商家解决方案收入为27.8亿美元，而订阅解决方案收入为8.02亿美元。
The answer is in the profit lines, not the revenue line. Toast’s recurring gross profit streams grew 28%, ahead of its 23% revenue growth, which is why they raised the recurring gross profit guide rather than just the revenue guide. Operating income was $152M against $80M a year ago.
答案在于利润线，而非收入线。Toast的经常性毛利润流增长了28%，超过了其23%的收入增长，这就是为什么他们提高了经常性毛利润指引，而不仅仅是收入指引。营业收入为1.52亿美元，而去年同期为8000万美元。
Shopify’s gross margins did compress, from 48.6% to 47.8%, on a heavier payments mix. Gross profit grew 31% against 34% revenue growth. But operating income grew 68% and free cash flow margin went from 16% to 18%. The payments mix costs a little at the gross line and pays it back several times over below it.
Shopify的毛利率确实有所压缩，从48.6%降至47.8%，原因是支付组合占比更高。毛利润增长了31%，而收入增长了34%。但营业收入增长了68%，自由现金流利润率从16%提高到18%。支付组合在毛利线上损失一点，但在其下数倍回报。
The better framing: these companies made the transaction their pricing unit. Payments isn’t a separate business bolted onto a software business. It is how they charge for the software.
更好的框架是：这些公司将交易作为其定价单位。支付不是附加在软件业务上的独立业务，而是他们为软件收费的方式。
The Control Case: Procore
对照组：Procore
Procore reported on July 29. Revenue $375.2M, up 16%, with its first quarter of GAAP operating profitability, a 21% non-GAAP operating margin, and an $845M deal to acquire DroneDeploy.
Procore于7月29日公布了财报。收入3.752亿美元，增长16%，首次实现GAAP营业利润，非GAAP营业利润率为21%，并以8.45亿美元收购DroneDeploy。
Construction is about as un-disruptable by AI as any market gets, and Procore is the category leader. But it prices on users and modules, so it captures the industry’s activity only indirectly. Growth is less than half of Shopify’s.
建筑业几乎是最不受AI颠覆的市场，而Procore是品类领导者。但它按用户和模块定价，因此只能间接捕捉行业的活跃度。增长率不到Shopify的一半。
One company does not settle the question. But it is the cleanest available test of which half of the thesis does the work. Being attached to a physical end market gets you a durable market. Pricing on that market’s throughput is what gets you 30% growth at $2B of scale.
一家公司不能定论。但这是最清晰的测试，可以检验论点中哪一半起作用。依附于实体终端市场能让你获得持久市场。基于该市场的吞吐量定价，才能让你在20亿美元规模下实现30%的增长。
It is also worth noting that Shopify and Toast are SMB-heavy while Samsara sells to large fleets, and all three land in the same place. The segment isn’t the variable. The pricing unit is.
同样值得注意的是，Shopify 和 Toast 以中小企业为主，而 Samsara 面向大型车队，但三者最终都落在同一位置。细分市场不是变量，定价单位才是。
What Could Break This
什么可能打破这一局面
Consumer spending. Toast’s revenue is levered to restaurant traffic and Shopify’s to consumer purchasing. A real downturn hits both faster than it hits an enterprise contract, and most of Toast’s customers are small businesses that are harder and costlier to retain when times get tight.
消费者支出。Toast 的收入与餐厅客流量挂钩，Shopify 与消费者购买力挂钩。真正的经济衰退对这两者的冲击快于企业合同，而且 Toast 的大多数客户是中小企业，在经济紧张时期，这些客户的留存更难且成本更高。
Agentic disintermediation. Today agentic commerce sends traffic to Shopify merchants. If the agent layer consolidates demand and starts dictating terms, the merchant becomes a supplier and the margin moves. Shopify is investing hard to be the infrastructure rather than the disintermediated party, but it is a live risk.
代理型去中介化。如今，代理型商务将流量导向 Shopify 商家。如果代理层整合需求并开始制定条款，商家就变成供应商，利润空间随之转移。Shopify 正在大力投资，以成为基础设施而非被去中介化的一方，但这是一个现实存在的风险。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力