卡普兰：美联储应保持耐心，关注长期国债收益率结构性上行
Kaplan on Rate Hikes, Warsh at Jackson Hole
OUT PAVING GOLDMAN SACHS VICE CHAIR FORMER DALLAS FED PRESIDENT ROBERT KAPLAN JOINS US NOW. I WANT TO START BY ASKING YOUR TAKE ON THE ECONOMY AND WHAT YOU WERE SURPRISED BY THE RELATIVELY WEAK LABOR MARKET REPORT, THEN VERY MUCH IN LINE BUT CONFUSING CPI REPORT. ROB: WHAT I'M SEEING IN THE ECONOMY, IF IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INFRASTRUCTURE BUILD OR AI ADOPTION, THEN IT'S STRONG. WHAT I HEAR FROM A NUMBER OF COMPANIES WHO ARE MORE TIED TO HOUSING, AUTOS, THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW TO MODERATE IN CONSUMER, I WOULD SAY THEY DESCRIBE THE ECONOMY AS OK, NOT GREAT, SOMEWHAT SLUGGISH.
铺路高盛副董事长、前达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰现在加入我们。我想先问问你对经济的看法，以及你对相对疲弱的劳动力市场报告感到惊讶的地方，然后是与之非常一致但令人困惑的CPI报告。罗伯：我在经济中看到的是，如果它与基础设施建设或人工智能采用相关，那么它就很强劲。我从许多与住房、汽车、中低收入消费者实力更相关的公司那里听到的，我想说他们把经济描述为还行，不是很好，有些低迷。
IN THAT REGARD, THE JOB MARKET REPORT KIND OF WAS IN LINE WITH THAT. YOU DON'T SEE AGGRESSIVE HIRING BUT YOU DON'T SEE AGGRESSIVE FIRING PAVING I STILL THINK WE ARE SEVERAL MONTHS OR A YEAR AWAY FROM COMPANIES HAVING ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE AI USE CASES TO MORE AGGRESSIVELY USE AI TO REPLACE PEOPLE. THAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN. THERE WILL BE NEW JOBS CREATED ALSO. THE POINT IS, UNIT LABOR COSTS ARE WELL BEHAVED, AND YOU AND I HAVE TALKED ABOUT THIS.
在这方面，就业市场报告有点符合这一点。你没有看到激进的招聘，但也没有看到激进的裁员。我仍然认为，距离公司对人工智能用例有足够信心并更积极地使用人工智能来替代人，还有几个月或一年的时间。这很可能会发生。也会创造新的就业机会。关键是，单位劳动力成本表现良好，你和我已经讨论过这一点。
THE SHARE OF GDP GOING TO PROFIT IS INCREASING. THE SHARE GOING TO LABOR IS MORE MUTED. LISA: WHAT IS THE FED IS A ROLE GOING INTO THIS GIVEN THE BACKDROP RIGHT NOW? ROB: YOU HAVE A LOT OF CROSSCURRENTS. IN FAIRNESS, IF WE DIDN'T HAVE THE WAR IN IRAN AND THE SPIKE IN OIL PRICES WHICH I THINK HAS RAISED HEADLINE INFLATION AND LEADS INTO OTHER ITEMS, MY GUESS IS WE MAY NOT EVEN TALKING ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF A RATE INCREASE.
GDP中利润所占的份额在增加。劳动所占的份额则更为温和。丽莎：在这种背景下，美联储扮演什么角色？罗伯：有很多相互矛盾的潮流。公平地说，如果我们没有伊朗战争和油价飙升（我认为这提高了总体通胀并导致其他项目），我猜我们甚至可能不会谈论加息的前景。
I THINK THE FED'S ROLE HERE SHOULD BE TO UNDERSTAND THESE CROSSCURRENTS. THE AI INFRASTRUCTURE BUILD IS PROBABLY INFLATIONARY. YOU HAVE TARIFFS, LABOR CONSTRAINTS, ALL SPIKES THAT EXACERBATE THAT. ON THE OTHER HAND, AI ADOPTION SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE DISINFLATIONARY, CHINESE OVERCAPACITY SHOULD BE DISINFLATIONARY. IT IS NOT A SURPRISE TO ME THAT THERE IS A LOT OF DEBATE, TRYING TO WEAVE THROUGH THIS. WHAT I WOULD DO IN MY FORMER SEAT, I WOULD HAVE NOT HAD A RAISE RATES IN JULY.
我认为美联储在这里的作用应该是理解这些相互矛盾的潮流。人工智能基础设施建设可能是通胀性的。你有关税、劳动力限制，所有这些都会加剧这种情况。另一方面，人工智能的采用最终应该是通缩性的，中国的产能过剩应该是通缩性的。对我来说，有很多辩论试图理清这些并不奇怪。如果我在我以前的位子上，我不会在7月加息。
THEY MADE ABSOLUTELY THE RIGHT DECISION. I WOULDN'T HAVE CUT IN DECEMBER EITHER. THAT LAST CUT I WOULD NOT HAVE DONE. I WOULD BE KEEPING AN OPEN MIND BETWEEN NOW AND SEPTEMBER. IF I SAW MEANINGFUL IMPROVEMENT, I MIGHT DO NOTHING, BUT I WANT TO TAKE EVERY BIT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND SEPTEMBER TO MAKE A JUDGMENT, AVOID BEING RIGID OR PREDETERMINED IN ASSESSING THIS. LISA: PEOPLE TALK ABOUT THE DEATH OF FORWARD GUIDANCE, AT A TIME WHEN NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN, HARD TO PREDETERMINE WHAT COULD TRANSPIRE.
他们做出了绝对正确的决定。我也不会在12月降息。最后一次降息我不会做。我会在从现在到9月之间保持开放的心态。如果我看到有意义的改善，我可能什么都不做，但我想利用从现在到9月的每一分钟来做出判断，避免在评估时僵化或预先设定。丽莎：人们谈论前瞻性指引的消亡，在没人知道会发生什么的时候，很难预先确定可能发生什么。
AT THE SAME TIME, REACTION FUNCTION APPEARS TO BE IMPORTANT. FROM YOUR VANTAGE POINT, WHAT WOULD YOU BE LOOKING FOR TO SEE THERE IS SOME SORT OF DEPARTURE FROM THIS MUDDLE, TO SOMETHING THAT IS A MORE PROTRACTED, PERSISTENT INFLATION? ROB: THE TERM FORWARD GUIDANCE GETS USED VERY BROADLY. WHAT IT STARTED OUT AS IS, I'M GOING TO MAKE A CURRENT COMMITMENT TODAY TO A FUTURE ACTION. BEN BERNANKE USE IT DURING THE GREAT RECESSION.
与此同时，反应函数似乎很重要。从你的角度来看，你会关注什么来观察是否出现某种脱离当前困境的迹象，转向更持久、更顽固的通胀？罗伯：术语“前瞻指引”被用得相当宽泛。它最初的含义是，我今天做出当前承诺，以采取未来的行动。本·伯南克在大衰退期间使用了这一工具。
WE, I THINK, OVER USED IT IN THE FALL OF 2020, INTO 2021 AND COMMITTING TO KEEP RATES LOW UNTIL WE REACHED FULL EMPLOYMENT. I DISSENTED ON THAT. BUT THE FED HAS LEARNED ITS LESSON AND IS MUCH MORE RELUCTANT TO USE THAT KIND OF FORWARD GUIDANCE. NOW FORWARD GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE, I DON'T WANT TO PREDICT. I AGREE WITH THAT, TOO. THE FED'S JOB IS TO BE A RISK MANAGER, NOT PROGNOSTICATOR. HAVING SAID THAT COME IN THE PRESS CONFERENCES, YOU OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO EXPLAIN THE DECISION YOU MADE AND DESCRIBED THE PROS AND CONS, WHAT THE DEBATE WAS.
我认为，我们在2020年秋季到2021年期间过度使用了这一工具，承诺在达到充分就业之前保持低利率。我对此持异议。但美联储已经吸取了教训，现在更加不愿使用那种前瞻指引。如今的前瞻指引似乎更像是，我不想预测。我也同意这一点。美联储的工作是充当风险管理者，而不是预言家。话虽如此，在新闻发布会上，你应该能够解释你所做的决定，并描述利弊，以及辩论的内容。
I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THAT MORE IN FUTURE PRESS CONFERENCES. I THINK THAT WOULD ILLUMINATE THE DEBATE GOING ON. I THINK THAT WOULD BE USEFUL. I DON'T THINK THAT BOXES IN THE FED AT ALL. ANNMARIE: DO YOU THINK THERE'S AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE REACTION FUNCTION RIGHT NOW BY THIS FEDERAL RESERVE? ROB: I THINK THE UNDERSTANDING COMES FROM INDIVIDUALS GIVING SPEECHES ABOUT THEIR REACTION FUNCTION. IN FAIRNESS TO CHAIR WARSH, HE HAS BEEN GENTLY COUNSELING PEOPLE ON THE COMMITTEE, DON'T OVER PREDICT WHAT YOU ARE THINKING, DON'T OVER EXPLAIN IT, YOU WILL BOX YOURSELF.
我希望在未来的新闻发布会上看到更多这样的内容。我认为这将有助于阐明正在进行的辩论。我认为那会很有用。我不认为那会束缚美联储。安玛丽：你认为当前的美联储是否理解反应函数？罗伯：我认为理解来自于个人就他们的反应函数发表演讲。公平地说，沃什主席一直在温和地劝告委员会成员，不要过度预测你的想法，不要过度解释，否则你会束缚自己。
I ACTUALLY THINK THAT IS GOOD ADVICE. IN THE FUTURE, I THINK A LITTLE BIT MORE EXPLANATION FROM THE CHAIR TO HELP FRAME ALL OF THIS, I THINK, WOULD BE USEFUL. I WOULD THINK AND HOPE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS YOU'LL PROBABLY GET THAT. ANNMARIE: DO YOU THINK THERE IS NO MORE EMPHASIS AROUND HIS JACKSON HOLE SPEECH GIVEN ALL OF THIS? ROB: ANY TIME A FED CHAIR SPEAKS THERE IS A LOT OF ATTENTION. THE JACKSON HOLE SPEECH HISTORICALLY IS A LITTLE BIT OF A 500 THOUSAND FOOT PHILOSOPHICAL SPEECH.
我实际上认为那是好建议。在未来，我认为主席提供更多一点解释来帮助框定这一切，我认为会很有用。我想并希望在未来几个月内，你可能会看到这一点。安玛丽：鉴于这一切，你认为他的杰克逊霍尔演讲还会有更多强调吗？罗伯：任何时候美联储主席讲话都会引起很多关注。杰克逊霍尔演讲历来有点像五十万英尺高度的哲学演讲。
BECAUSE OF HIS CONFIRMATION HEARINGS AND WHAT HE'S DONE IN THE FIRST TWO PRESS CONFERENCES, YOU HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN A LOT OF PHILOSOPHICAL VIEWS FROM CHAIR WARSH. I THINK IN THIS SPEECH I WOULD GIVE SOME OF THE PHILOSOPHICAL, BUT IF IT WERE ME, AND HE MAY NOT FOLLOW THIS, I MIGHT INSERT FOUR SENTENCES TO EXPLAIN WHY WE MADE A DECISION WE MADE IN JULY. WE THOUGHT INFLATION READINGS WERE COOLING. THIS WAS NOT AN EXCESS DEMAND SITUATION, THAT'S MY VIEW OF THE ECONOMY, MORE OF A SUPPLY DRIVEN, CAPEX DRIVEN.
由于他的确认听证会以及他在前两次新闻发布会上的表现，你已经从沃什主席那里得到了很多哲学观点。我认为在这次演讲中我会给出一些哲学性的内容，但如果是我，他可能不会遵循这一点，我可能会插入四句话来解释我们为什么在七月做出那个决定。我们认为通胀读数正在降温。这不是一个需求过剩的情况，这是我对经济的看法，更多是供应驱动、资本支出驱动的。
WE HAVE THE SPECIAL SITUATION OF THE WAR. IN THAT REGARD, A MAJORITY OF THE VOTERS ON THE COMMITTEE DECIDED IT WOULD BE BEST TO BE PATIENT BUT WE WILL REMAIN VIGILANT. I WOULD INSERT SOMETHING LIKE THAT JUST SO HE CAN GET THE FRAMING OF THE JULY DECISION OUT THERE. BUT THAT'S ME. OTHERWISE, I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO GET ANY MORE ATTENTION THAN ANY OTHER JACKSON HOLE SPEECH, WHICH ALWAYS GETS A LOT OF ATTENTION. LISA: HOW WORRIED ARE YOU ABOUT THE $20 BILLION COMING OUT IN THE 30 YEAR OPTION FROM THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT?
我们有战争的特殊情况。在这方面，委员会的大多数投票者决定最好保持耐心，但我们将保持警惕。我会插入类似这样的内容，以便他能把七月的决定框架提出来。但那是我的想法。否则，我认为它不会比其他杰克逊霍尔演讲受到更多关注，而那些演讲总是受到很多关注。丽莎：你对财政部发行的200亿美元30年期国债有多担心？
ROB: THIS IS WHERE YOU HAVE DIVERGING PATHS. THE DEBATE AT THE FED, DOES THE FED FUNDS RATE ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE HIGHER? IF IT IS HIGHER, WE ARE TALKING OVER THE NEXT YEAR OR TWO, MAYBE 50, 70 FIVE BASIS POINTS. THE FED WILL FIGURE IT OUT. IT MAY NOT BE PRETTY BUT THEY WILL FIGURE IT OUT. THE PART THAT I'M STRUGGLING WITH, THE MARKETS ARE STRUGGLING WITH, THE LONG END OF THE TREASURY CURVE, THIS IS TRUE OF GOVERNMENT BONDS GLOBALLY.
罗布：这就是分歧所在。美联储内部的辩论是，联邦基金利率最终是否需要更高？如果更高，我们谈论的是未来一两年，可能50到75个基点。美联储会解决的。可能不会很顺利，但他们会解决的。我纠结的部分，市场也在纠结的，是国债曲线的长端，全球政府债券也是如此。
I THINK THEY ARE STRUGGLING WITH SOMETHING ELSE, SUPPLY DEMAND OF TREASURIES, THE SIZE OF THESE DEFICITS. ARE THE DEFICITS GOING TO START MODERATING? IN A SOLID ECONOMY, YOU WOULD THINK THAT DEFICITS WOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT. THESE DEFICITS ARE NOT MODERATING. I THINK YOU ARE SEEING A GLOBAL BACKUP -- NOT JUST U.S. -- BUT A GLOBAL BACKUP OF THE LONG END OF THE CURVE. SOME HAVE ATTRIBUTED TO THE FED, BUT I DON'T THINK SO.
我认为他们纠结的是别的东西，国债的供需，这些赤字的大小。赤字会开始缓和吗？在一个稳健的经济中，你会认为赤字会有所缓和。但这些赤字并没有缓和。我认为你看到的是全球性的利率上升——不仅仅是美国——而是全球曲线长端的利率上升。有些人将其归因于美联储，但我不这么认为。
THIS IS A STRUCTURAL DYNAMIC. NORMALLY WHEN THE ECONOMY WEAKENS, YOU WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT THE LONG END OF THE TREASURY CURVE TO RALLY. IF THERE IS A GEOPOLITICAL EVENT, YOU WOULD EXPECT THE FLIGHT TO QUALITY. IT HAS NOT BEEN ACTING THAT MUCH THAT WAY IN THE LAST TWO YEARS. WE HAVE A NEW STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT. I THINK IT'S APPROPRIATE TO BE WRESTLING WITH THAT A LITTLE BIT. LISA: REAL QUICK, WHAT WOULD YOU BE MORE BULLISH ON INTO NEXT YEAR, BONDS OR STOCKS?
这是一个结构性动态。通常当经济疲软时，你通常会预期国债曲线长端会上涨。如果发生地缘政治事件，你会预期资金流向安全资产。但在过去两年里，它并没有那样表现。我们有一个新的结构性发展。我认为稍微纠结一下是合适的。丽莎：快问快答，明年你更看好债券还是股票？
ROB: AS YOU HAVE BEEN REPORTING AND WE ARE SEEING IT, THERE IS A GREAT EARNINGS STORY THAT IS UNFOLDING. THE ECONOMY, YES, IS BEING STIMULATED BY AI INFRASTRUCTURE, BUT BROADLY, EVERY COMPANY I TALK ABOUT HAS 12 TO 15 USE CASES ON AI ADOPTION, OPTIMISTIC THAT THEY WILL FIND WAYS TO IMPROVE MARGINS, IMPROVE THEIR BUSINESS, IMPROVE PRODUCTIVITY. I THINK THE S&P BROADER EARNINGS STORY IS ALIVE AND WELL FOR NOT JUST THIS YEAR BUT INTO THE FUTURE.
罗布：正如你们一直在报道的，我们也看到了，一个巨大的盈利故事正在展开。经济确实受到人工智能基础设施的刺激，但总的来说，我谈到的每家公司都有12到15个人工智能应用的用例，乐观地认为他们会找到提高利润率、改善业务、提高生产力的方法。我认为标普更广泛的盈利故事不仅在今年，而且在未来都充满活力。
I'M A LITTLE MORE NERVOUS ABOUT
我对此有点紧张。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力