美国PPI降温超预期，初请失业金人数上升

PPI jobless claims just crossing now. Let's head over to Michael McKee with the numbers. Well, we do have a little more clarity, and it looks good for those who want to keep the Fed on hold. PPI for final demand is flat on the month after just a one tenth fall in the month of June, and that is revised lower from a negative three tenths. Ex food and energy up two tenths. The forecast was for three tenths. Now ex food and energy was revised up for June to four tenths.

And then the core core, the PPI ex food, energy, and trade up four tenths, which is more than anticipated by the markets. On a year over year basis, 4.7%, a significant drop from 5.5% for the headline number. For the core, 4.2%, also a significant drop, was 4.7%. And we get a drop in the core core, food, energy, and trade to 4.7 from 5%, a revised 5%. So good news on the inflation front. We'll break it down in just a second as we get some more data.

The one thing I can tell you is that two tenths percent increase in the index for final demand services, 2.2% for final demand construction, and for final demand goods, a seven tenths percent decrease in the index for final demand goods, which would include energy prices. And then, of course, everybody wants to know what's happening with jobless claims. A big jump, but only because we've been so low. We go up to 209,000 from a revised 200,000 revised up for 199,000.

And then the continuing claims number rises to 199 thous I'm sorry. 1,777,000. That's down from 1,799,000. So reasonable news on jobless claims, but better than expected news on inflation at the moment. Mike, thanks so much. Stay close as you look through the numbers and the details, and we'll get more from you in just a second. Let's take a look at what's going on in markets when you take a look at stocks. If you take a look at S and P futures, Nasdaq futures, Russell two thousand, you do see a fading just a touch from earlier dynamism.

The S and P futures now up just a tenth of a percent. Nasdaq futures actually now lower by a tenth of a percent. And if you take a look at the bond space, twos, tens, and thirties, initially not knowing exactly what to do with this and now exactly shrugging it off and saying it's exactly in line, keeping some of the gains that we had seen earlier, yields lower about two basis points across the curve. Interesting to look through this, though, and see, that ultimately, it's not quite as much of a disinflationary view if you take out food, energy, trade, some of that core core, that Mike was talking about.

There, you actually saw an upside surprise. At the same time, the disinflation does continue when it comes to the overall headline number. Yeah. And food and energy, not only, is it up two tenths of percent now, but also revised higher for the prior month. So it is important to realize, yes, headline final demand, 0%. That is definitely a welcoming signal. And maybe as Neil Dutta pointed out, it gives the doves another day to fight, and maybe September goes off the table.

But when you look at some of the intricacies and a little bit more under the hood, you could see there is some inflationary pressures underneath. Right now, actually, you're seeing the chances of a Fed rate hike increase. Now about 40% chance there there could be a rate hike at September. Right