美银：中国成原油新摇摆买家，全球燃料供应紧张

Francisco Blanche of Bank of America writing, we do not think the world has a crude oil problem right now, but are very worried about fuel availability. Francisco joins us now for more. Francisco, wonderful to see you. Great to see you, Lisa. What's going on? Why are oil prices declining today? Well, I mean, look. The the market is incredibly volatile. We have this news that maybe there's more more crude oil coming through, The Strait, but, we still have three of the world's, four main refining centers, basically curtailed for one reason or another.

Right? Whether it's Russia's, ban on petroleum fuel exports, gasoline and diesel, or whether it is, The Strait not getting, the products through or China, which is still holding back, fuel exports to protect the domestic market. So so there's bottlenecks everywhere. Usually, think that we do have a fuel problem, refined products problem, which is something that we are seeing in pricing. And in Europe right now, we're seeing natural gas prices up some more than 9% so far on this on the week.

Is this a European problem, or is this a global problem? This is a global gas problem. Listen. And and the issue is, of course, that right now in the fifth, heat wave in Europe, nuclear power is is running low. There is, no water in the European rivers. Solar eclipse? Solar eclipse on top of that plus plus, you know, plus plus the water levels are warming up. So it's all it's all coming together. But as we know, after the summer comes the fall and then the winter, and and you don't really have that much time to build those inventories.

Right? Then in the middle, we have the harvest season, which is a pretty strong window for, diesel demand. So so, yeah, we are we we are uncomfortably tight, coming into end of September, October, and and and we are essentially banking on on another warm winter like we have in the last three, four years to to get into to the other side. Right? How do you see China dealing with this crisis different than Europe did in 2022?

So the Chinese have been a lot more, I would say, skilled at managing their energy situation. Back in 2022, the Chinese '22 was a gas and power crisis with a bit of oil. This crisis is is is a is an oil crisis with a bit of gas. Back then, the Chinese pulled back from the LNG market and let the Europeans buy all the gas at $40.50, $60.90 dollars per MMBtu. Right? Mhmm. This time around, what they've done is as soon as crude oil prices, zoomed up, they they and and and and president Trump imposed double blockade, they withdrew from the market, and they started using their own reserves.

Right? And as I said, they also blocked off fuel exports. So they're really consuming a lot less overall. I think some of this is temporary, but but, really, what what they're doing is they're they're essentially the world's biggest oil buyer, and they're using that muscle to insulate themselves a little bit from from the the the the volatility in the market. Have they really become the swing player in the oil market right now?

They they definitely are the swing buyer, by a mile, and and, you know, they they were importing 12,000,000 barrels a day. They brought it down to seven. And and if prices go down, they'll buy more. And if prices shoot up, they'll they'll stand still. Right? I mean, it it's it's pretty hard. If they go back to normal buying levels? If they go back to normal buying levels, we'll we'll have a lot more support to prices, which is why we believe this year, again, Brent is is likely gonna average about $82 a barrel.

That's our forecast for '20, '26. And '27 where we actually have a surplus if things normalize in Hormuz, let's say, and in in Russia, Ukraine. We are we are going to see possible, though, if everyone's gonna wanna refill their inventories that they just burned down? Well, we will have a surplus, and filling inventories takes a lot more time than drawing them. Inventories go up in in an escalator. They come down in the elevator.

Right? And and and and for strategic purposes. And I think the Chinese will, will refill. So we think next year, Brent will be about $70 a barrel. What about the fuel? And I'm looking right now at gasoline prices in The United States and diesel, and they're bumping up back against some of the highest levels that we've seen going back to the beginning of June. Do you see them going significantly higher from here, or do you think that as long as we're in this new normal, we can kinda keep a lid on things here at $5.40 for diesel?

No. I I think I think it will probably go higher. Right? Because, if if things don't get resolved in hormones because, again, inventories are running very, very low, and inventories are are what keep supply and demand together. Right? If if you run out of inventories, then then price volatility has to shoot up, and and and you need to ration demand. We are at a seasonally low point in consumption. As we said, we are towards the tail end of summer.

We are pricing September and October right now. So we should be heading lower. I mean, seasonally, this is a very, very strong pricing for for gasoline and for diesel. So I I I I struggle to see how we can come down quickly unless things, get better on the geopolitical front right now. Earlier in the show, we were talking to our own colonel Wayne Sanders about the geopolitical front and the restocking of stockpiles of ammunition.

We they're talking about AI and the build out of AI. All of this takes materials, it takes metals, and it takes, going out and sourcing this with everyone doing it at the same time. I mean, why are we not seeing more significant price gains in copper, in nickel, in some of these other metals? Well, we we we did list to see record copper prices last week, right, in The US. And, so just just as a reminder, I mean, copper is super tight.

We've had Codelco, the Chilean national champion, essentially rebase their growth expectations on the supply side. And and and, again, not only we have all of that that you mentioned, we have also just the the electrification of the global economy, which continues. Electricity demand is growing at a higher rate than GDP. Right? So we need a lot of copper for sure to make that happen, and we just don't have it. So, plus, there's talk about the potential tariff on copper kicking in on January 1.

So so there's a lot of people buying copper, bring it to The US Of A, and and and inventories around the world are depleting. So you have so you have these pressures in energy. You have these pressures in on on the metals on the industrial metals. You have agriculture also ripping through because all these effects on weather plus geopolitics are are are pushing them higher. And then last but not least, let's not forget, we have the gold market, which is finally showing signs of life.

So clearly, commodity complex is is coming back to the fore in the next few months. How inflationary is this, or do you think it is just a moment of hoarding? Well, look. I mean, I I there's an element of hoarding to this. No question. But I I do think that we have you know, GDP in The US is growing very strongly nominally. Right? We have 8% nominal growth in the past quarter. We are getting, you know, the inflation print was mixed, this week, granted yesterday.

But in reality, what's what's happening is the nominal economy is still expanding. We have two lax monetary policy. I think we all understand that. Right? I mean, it looks like the Fed's not ready to push up the front end of the yield curve. Then we have the US treasury talking to Japan about, like, not selling their stock of bonds, which is kind of a backdoor QE. So so you have, you know, treasury and Fed trying to keep rates flat and low for the American people.

That and that which is good, but that that means real rates are are are zero negative. Right? Then you have this fiscal policy, which is very lax, and we're asking for more money. And then you have the AI r