彭博市场观察：美股接近历史高位，美债收益率高企

WE ARE STILL OVERWEIGHT EQUITIES OVERALL.

WE DO SEE THE POSSIBILITY GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE YEAR AND INTO NEXT YEAR THAT THIS MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO BROADEN.

HIGHER NOMINAL GROWTH DRIVES HIGHER EARNINGS AND WE ARE SEEING THEN THE FIRST QUARTER AND SECOND QUARTER.

YOU DO HAVE TO GROUND YOURSELF IN THE EARNINGS STORY.

I THINK THE MARKET IS GOING HIGHER AND I THINK IT IS GOING HIGHER ON EARNINGS.

THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE" WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ, AND ANNMARIE HORDERN.

GOOD MORNING. WELCOME TO "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE." YESTERDAY'S INFLATION GAUGE COMING IN CLEAR AS MUD WITH MARKETS LOOKING AHEAD TO TODAY'S PPI DATA FOR PERHAPS A BIT MORE CLARITY. U.S. BORROWING COSTS A GROWING CONCERN AS THE TREASURY GEARS UP TO SELL 30 YEAR BONDS AT THE HIGHS YIELDS GOING BACK TO 2001 AFTER YESTERDAY'S VERY IMPORTANT 10-YEAR AUCTION SOLD AT THE HIGHEST YIELDS GOING BACK TO 2007. LISA: THIS MORNING THE FED MAY BE ABLE TO HAVE SOME BREATHING ROOM.

THERE IS A SIGH COMING FROM THOSE DISAPPOINTED IN THE INCREASE OF ALL THE 0.1% YESTERDAY BECAUSE THEY WANTED TO PUT THAT CREDIBILITY QUESTION IN FOCUS AND THROWING SOME SHADE ON THOSE THAT ARE A LITTLE BIT SKEPTICAL OF WHAT KEVIN WARSH IS UP TO. THE REAL SIGH OF RELIEF THAT WE ARE NOT HEARING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT, AND NOT JUST BECAUSE OF WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE AUCTIONS BUT ALSO AN UPDATE ON HOW MUCH WE ARE SPENDING.

WE ARE SPENDING MORE IN THE FIRST 10 MONTHS OF THIS YEAR THAN FISCAL 2026. LISA: THIS IS THE CONCERN, THAT THIS IS REALLY NOT AND THE PURVIEW OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE TREASURY MARKET HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH FED CREDIBILITY AS MUCH AS JUST A FISCAL DOOM LOOP. IT IS FINE TO HAVE YIELDS AT THESE LEVELS WHICH THEY WERE PRECRISIS IF YOU ONLY HAVE A TRILLION DOLLARS OF DEBT. IF YOU HAVE $40 TRILLION OF DEBT AND YOUR INTEREST PAYMENT IS YOUR FASTEST GROWING COMPONENT OF YOUR OVERALL BUDGET, SUDDENLY IT BECOMES MORE OF A PROBLEM.

ANNMARIE: MEDICARE EXPENSES FOR THE MONTH TOTAL 74 BILLION, UP FROM 03 BILLION, THEN OF COURSE THERE IS SOCIAL SECURITY AND 104 BILLION DOLLARS NET INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL DEBT AN INCREDIBLY HIGH NUMBER. FASTEST GROWING, WHERE ARE WE GOING TO BE YEAR END WITH THIS LEVEL OF THE? LISA: BEFORE EVERYBODY SHUTS OFF THE TV SAYING THEY ARE SKIMMING DEFICIT ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS NOT SEEMING TO AFFECT THE OVERALL RALLY. IT HAS BEEN BROAD-BASED AND THE BROADENING OUTRIGHT HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING THE EQUAL WEIGHT YESTERDAY REACHING ANOTHER RECORD I.

S&P 0.1% AWAY FROM THE ALL-TIME HIGHS, DRIVEN BY THE BIFURCATION OF ON WHAT HOT AND CHIP STOCKS COMING THROUGH AND THIS IDEA THAT BROAD-BASED EARNINGS DELIVERING. ANNMARIE: IT'S ALL ABOUT EARNINGS. WE HEARD IT FROM ED YARDENI, IT IS THE FABULOUS EARNINGS MOMENTUM WE ARE SEEING AND THE FACT THAT ALSO WE GOT SOME OF THOSE CATALYSTS, WHETHER OR NOT IT IS IN SOUTH KOREA AND WHAT'S GOING ON WITH SK HYNIX AND SAMSUNG. THERE HAS BEEN A MORE BROADER APPETITE WAS AGAIN TO LOOK AT THE AI TRADE AND SAY THIS STILL HAS MORE LEGS.

LISA: WHICH IS WHY YOU SEE EQUITY FUTURES TODAY COMING BACK TOWARD ALL-TIME HIGHS. S&P FUTURES UP 0.2%. NASDAQ FUTURES UNDERPERFORMING WITHING THAT LIFT IN THE RUSSELL 2000 AS WELL. TWOS, TENDS, AND 30'S, THIS IDEA THAT YESTERDAY'S CPI DID NOT MANDATE SOME SORT OF ACTION BY THE FED. THE ODDS OF A FED RATE HIKE COME SEPTEMBER HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS SINCE THE JUNE FOMC MEETING. 30 YEAR YIELDS, 5.24%. MAERSK SHARES CLIMBING IN PREMARKET TRADING, CLIMBING IN THE EUROPEAN HOURS.

THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST INTERESTING STORIES AND PERHAPS THE OIL STORY ENCAPSULATED IN ONE NAME. 7.8% RIGHT NOW. WE ARE SEEING KIND OF RANGE BOUND OIL PRICES. THE SHIPPER IS NOT SO MUCH RANGE BOUND. ANNMARIE: AS A RESULT OF DISRUPTORS OF SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES AROUND THE WORLD, MOST NOTABLY THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. FREIGHT RATES UP. THEY RAISED FULL-YEAR OUTLOOK FOR THE SECOND TIME IN SEVEN WEEKS. THEY ARE JUST GOING TO INC.

MORE MONEY AND THAT IS THE ENVIRONMENT RIGHT OUT AND IS LOG AS THIS CONFLICT CONTINUES TO GO, THESE ARE GOING TO BE THE COMPANIES ARE CONSIDERED TO MAKE POCKET OFF OF IT. LISA: COMING UP, MAX KETTNER OF HS BUSY AS WALL STREET TRIMS -- HSBC AS WALL STREET TRIMS RATE HIKE BETS, ANGELO ZINO AND NELA RICHARDSON AS WAGES STRUGGLE TO OUTPACE INFLATION. SHOULD RESULT IN A FURTHER DOVISH REPRICING OF FRONT-END RATES. SO GOOD TO SEE.

TAKING A STEP BACK, THE IDEA OF PEAK EXCEPTIONALISM IN THE U.S. AND THE IDEA OF BEING MAX BULLISH SEEMS LIKE IT IS A BIT AT COUNTER ODDS. CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHY THOSE TWO IDEAS ARE COMPLETELY COMPATIBLE?

GOOD MORNING. IT IS PROBABLY MORE A RATES THAN FX STORY RATHER THAN AN EQUITY STORY. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE RATE SIDE OF THINGS, I THINK THE IDEA THAT WE GOT RAN OUT THAT THAT NARRATIVE AROUND U.S. EXCEPTIONALISM HAS PERHAPS BECOME A LITTLE BIT TO CONSENSUS, THAT NOW BEING UNWOUND IN THE NEXT COUPLE MONTHS, THAT PROBABLY SHOULD LEAD TO LIKELY SEND A BIT OF A DOVISH REPRICING OF FRONT AND U.S. RATES. THAT OF COURSE WHAT IT AWAY THAT THE RIGHT OF RATE HIKES, THAT THREAT OF MONETARY TRAINING.

THAT SHOULD BE LEADING TO MONETARY TIGHTENING. THAT SHOULD BE LEADING TO A LITTLE BIT LOWER VOLATILITY ACROSS THE FIXED-INCOME SPACE AND THAT IS PRETTY GOOD FOR EVALUATIONS AND EQUITIES. IT IS GOOD FOR MULTIPLES IN EQUITIES, GOOD FOR EMERGING-MARKET ASSETS, GOOD FOR CREDIT SPREADS. IT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT FEAR AND THREAT OF MONETARY TIGHTENING. THAT SOMEONE HAD. AND THAT'S ON ONE HAND. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE DOLLAR IS WELL BEHAVED, THAT WOULD BE ON THE ONE HAND PRESSING U.S.

EXCEPTIONALISM IN THE FX MARKET. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE MAG 7 FOR EXAMPLE, ABOUT 50% OF THEIR SALES COME FROM OVERSEAS, FROM OUTSIDE OF THE U.S. THAT WOULD BE A PRETTY BIG HEADWIND FOR THE MEGA CAPS AND THE LARGEST COMPANIES IN THE S&P 500. A PRETTY WELL BEHAVED DOLLAR, EVEN IF IT IS JUST ABOUT FLATTISH GOING FORWARD THAT IS PRETTY GOOD AND DOES NOT REALLY CONSTITUTE THAT MUCH OF A HEADWIND FROM AN FX PERSPECTIVE AS WELL.

LISA: IT IS EASY TO UNDERSTAND WHY SOME PEOPLE ARE STRUGGLING TO GET THEIR HANDS AROUND THIS ECONOMY. YOU ARE SEEING THE FASTEST GROWTH IN PROFITS IN S&P 500 COMPANIES GOING BACK TO 2001. ON THE OTHER HAND, PEOPLE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT ROBUST GROWTH AND SOME OF THE RECENT ECONOMIC DATA HAS COME A KIND OF MIDDLING. IS THIS A FEATURE AND NOT A BUG? THE IDEA THAT CORPORATE PROFITS ARE TAKING AN INCREASING SHARE OF U.S. GDP BUT LABOR IS A SHARE NOT SO MUCH, THAT THERE'S THIS BIFURCATION THAT DOES CONTINUE?

I THINK THAT'S PART OF IT. I THINK IT'S ALSO THAT WHEN WE LOOK AT THE EARNINGS AND THE Q2 REPORTING SEASON, WE OBVIOUSLY LOOK AT THE SECOND QUARTER, WITH A COUPLE ESTIMATES, WE PROBABLY LOOK AT THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. HOW MUCH WE ARE EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE STRENGTH IN U.S. TOP-DOWN ACTIVITY DATA OVER THE LAST RELLY NINE MONTHS. IF YOU LOOK AT THE SURPRISE INDICES, WE HAVE AN HONOR INTERRUPTED BECAUSE OF STRICT PRESSURE ON UNINTERRUPTED POSITIVE STRICT.

WE HAVE ACTIVITY DATA IN THE U.S. THAT HAVE REALLY BEEN SURPRISING TO THE UPSIDE. TAX REFUNDS BEEN 20% HIGHER FOR CONSUMERS COMPARED TO 2025. ALL OF THOSE IMPULSES HAVE NOW HAPPENED. THEY HAVE ALL HAPPENED IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS. THAT WAS GIVING US THE POSITIVE SURPRISES. THOSE IMPULSES, THEY ARE NOT BEING UNWOUND. I DON'T THINK WE ARE GOING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO NEGATIVE, BUT THEY ARE NOT REPEATING SO A LOT OF THOSE IMPULSES ARE IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR.

GOING FORWARD, I THINK THERE IS A BASIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE MONTHS WE WILL SEE SOME NEGATIVE ECONOMIC SURPRISES. THAT UNWINDS A LITTLE BIT THE U.S. EXCEPTIONALISM NARRATIVE AND THAT IS GOOD FOR FRONT END RATES IN THE U.S. LISA: DO YOU SEE ANY POSITIVE IMPULSES COMING FROM THE UNITED STATES, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE IS A MIDTERM ELECTION IN NOVEMBER AND WE ARE LOOKING LIKELY AT A SPLIT GOVERNMENT?

MAX: NO. TO WHAT LISA WAS JUST SAID, IS SAYING, IS A STILL A BIFURCATED ECONOMY? I THINK THAT WILL STILL BE BROADLY SUPPORTIVE B