AI建设下一阶段：Dan Ives谈英伟达与数据中心风险
The Next Phase of the AI Buildout | Bloomberg Businessweek
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All right, we have do have a lot to talk about with Dan Ies. There is a lot to talk. Cerever Systems just reporting uh falling 8% second quarter revenue disappoints. Coreweave surging after the AI spending frenzy spurred faster sales growth than anticipated with sales expected to be 3.45 billion to 3.6. six billion in the third quarter. We've got with us for the next half hour or so Dan Ies. He's partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Ives.
好的，我们有很多话题要和丹·艾夫斯讨论。确实有很多话题。Cerever Systems刚刚报告第二季度营收下降8%，令人失望。Coreweave股价飙升，因为AI支出狂潮推动了比预期更快的销售增长，预计第三季度销售额将达到34.5亿至36.6亿美元。接下来半小时左右，我们将与丹·艾夫斯连线。他是约克维尔·艾夫斯的合伙人兼高级董事总经理。
It's the first time I've read that title for you, Dan, because you know for for so long we knew you at at Wedbush and we knew you as this what many people called a tech permable. I want to get to uh your outlook on
丹，这是我第一次看到这个头衔，因为长期以来，我们在韦德布什认识你，并且知道你是许多人所说的科技领域永久看多者。我想听听你对
not just this earnings season and and and what to expect from Nvidia and the so-called circular financing. But before we do that, because we haven't had a chance to sit down with you since the since since this job changed, I I want to just hear from you why you left Wedbush and what you're doing now at Yorkville Lives.
不仅仅是这个财报季，还有对英伟达和所谓的循环融资的预期。但在此之前，因为我们自从你工作变动后还没有机会坐下来聊聊，我想先听听你为什么要离开韦德布什，以及你现在在约克维尔·艾夫斯做什么。
Yeah. I mean for me and look it was a great you know eight years at Wedbush but it was to create what I view as like a modern merchant bank you know really something where when I think about this fourth industrial revolution and for my you know called going in Wall Street since the late '9s it was seeing around corners and seeing the opportunity and I just felt like for me it was an evolution in my career for something that to build a bank and especially have great research that's focused on tech energy, you know, and and really across industries.
是的。对我来说，在韦德布什的八年很棒，但这是为了创建我认为的现代商人银行，你知道，当我想到第四次工业革命，以及我自90年代末进入华尔街以来，就是预见未来并看到机会，我只是觉得对我来说，这是我职业生涯的一次演变，去建立一家银行，尤其是拥有专注于科技、能源等领域的研究，并且真正跨行业。
And I found great partners in Yorkville. And it to me it was the right place, right time to do something like this given my view of the AI revolution.
我在约克维尔找到了很好的合作伙伴。对我来说，鉴于我对AI革命的看法，这是做这种事情的正确地点和正确时机。
Well, I want to get to more on more on that and we're going to get to the AI revolution, but we spoke to you uh at Future Proof where you'll be there again this September of last year and I remember the conversation because it was it was not just about what you were doing at Wedbush, but it was about
好的，我想进一步讨论这个问题，我们也会谈到AI革命，但我们在未来证明会议上采访过你，去年九月你也会再次参加，我记得那次对话，因为不仅涉及你在韦德布什的工作，还涉及
the ETF that you had launched. Mhm.
你推出的ETF。嗯。
You were also chairman at the time of of Worldcoin. This this crypto project
你当时还是Worldcoin的主席。这个加密货币项目
or a Yeah.
或者，是的。
Oh, Aco. Thank you. Which is part of which was
哦，Aco。谢谢。这是其中的一部分，这是
Yeah. which was related to to World.
是的。这与World有关。
Okay. Related to Worldcoin. So, what what is like what is the status of those projects now?
好的。与Worldcoin有关。那么，这些项目现在的状况如何？
Yeah. So, that so in terms of like I I left AO.
是的。所以，就我而言，我离开了AO。
Yeah. But what about the F?
是的。但ETF呢？
Yeah. And that like you know not there's been no change in terms of that. Um and that's something where for me look it was sort of like simplifying you know I think some of my you know other activities and really to me it was really doubling down to some extent yeah
是的，而且你知道，在这方面没有任何变化。嗯，对我来说，这就像是简化，你知道，我想我的一些其他活动，对我来说，这确实是在某种程度上加倍下注。
on what people know me as in terms of in when it comes to tech when it comes to you know great research and I think you know I think around the world so many more investors have such a focus in tech and it's something where to try to be some guiding light you know relative to a lot of the confusion that you see in the market.
在科技方面，在伟大的研究方面，人们所熟知的我，我认为在世界各地，如此多的投资者如此关注科技，而在市场中看到的许多困惑中，试图成为一盏指路明灯，这是一件很重要的事情。
What can you do now that you won't that you couldn't do before?
你现在能做什么以前做不到的事情？
I mean, there's, you know, we're, look, we're still awaiting our our research license. Yeah.
我的意思是，你知道，我们，你看，我们还在等待我们的研究许可证。是的。
But for now, this is like when it's all sort of built,
但现在，当这一切都建立起来的时候，
it will be something that it will be exactly the same Dan Ives uh research and you know what we've done for investors over the decades and and and that's really why we built it. But also it's for me it's finding the right people that want to do things and when it comes to innovation when it comes to building whether it's on the research side or you know across the industry and I just think right now like we're going through an innovation boom and in my career it's really been an evolution for me there was a natural next step and I've been super excited about the feedback that we've gotten and just you know from uh you know from you know many around the world.
它将完全一样，Dan Ives 的研究，以及我们几十年来为投资者所做的一切，这就是我们建立它的原因。但对我来说，这也是找到合适的人，他们想要做事情，无论是在研究方面还是在整个行业中，无论是创新还是建设。而且我认为现在我们正在经历一场创新热潮，在我的职业生涯中，这对我来说真的是一种演变，这是一个自然的下一步，我对我们得到的反馈感到非常兴奋，你知道，来自世界各地的许多人。
We have seen a lot of innovation cycles and you have been along for that ride and I'm just curious how you continue to put this particular cycle in its place and in its spot and how much do we really know about the ultimate impact?
我们经历了很多创新周期，你一直伴随着这些周期，我只是好奇你如何继续将这一特定周期置于其适当的位置，以及我们对最终影响到底了解多少？
I mean as someone like myself that spent so much time in Asia,
作为一个像我这样在亚洲待了很长时间的人，
yeah,
是的，
so much time talking to CEOs, CIOS that's done this since the late 90s, this is the true fourth industrial revolution. And you look, we've talked about it with you guys, you know, for many years. And that's why I think what a lot of times like the the skeptics or the bears, you know, they they're bearish from the 15th floor of their New York City office building or wherever it may be, but they're not in fabs in Taiwan.
花了很多时间与CEO、CIO交谈，从90年代末就开始了，这是真正的第四次工业革命。你看，我们和你们已经讨论了很多年。这就是为什么我认为很多时候，怀疑论者或看空者，你知道，他们在纽约市办公楼15楼或其他地方看空，但他们不在台湾的晶圆厂里。
They're not seeing the demand. And the reality is like for the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. And I think that's extremely important relative to where we are. And I think what you've seen with earnings, whether it's on the neoclouds, the hypers scalers, the it's just it is crystal clear that the monetization phase is now starting to take over.
他们没有看到需求。而现实是，30年来美国首次在科技方面领先于中国。我认为这相对于我们目前所处的位置极其重要。而且我认为你在财报中看到的，无论是新云、超大规模云服务商，还是其他，都清楚地表明变现阶段现在开始占据主导。
But do we have to be worried about China? Because they certainly have the government now saying, "Okay, they're they are prioritizing this and with money with efforts with, you know, how it works. We've seen it with cars. We've seen it with EV. We've seen it in so many different industries and they want to make sure they have a place at the table with this." So where how do you how far are they along? What do we really know about their expertise?
但我们是否需要担心中国？因为他们现在肯定有政府说：“好吧，他们正在优先考虑这件事，并且投入资金、努力，你知道，它是如何运作的。我们在汽车上看到了。我们在电动汽车上看到了。我们在许多不同的行业都看到了，他们想确保自己在这件事上占有一席之地。”那么，他们进展如何？我们对他们的专业知识真正了解多少？
Yeah. So I think as someone that myself said that that's spend so much time in the region, it's one like counting them out is the wrong bet because the reality is is that not just from a government perspective when it comes to energy, you know, just how ahead they've been when it comes to nuclear energy, when it comes to robotics. And it's one where I think part of why Jensen is so focused on selling into China and I think a lot of the chip companies because if you do not sell into China it just makes them that much more powerful.
是的。所以我认为，作为一个自己说过在该地区花费了大量时间的人，低估他们是一个错误的赌注，因为现实是，不仅从政府的角度来看，在能源方面，你知道，他们在核能、机器人技术方面已经领先了多少。而且我认为，这也是为什么黄仁勋如此专注于向中国销售，我认为很多芯片公司也是如此，因为如果你不向中国销售，那只会让他们变得更强大。
It narrows the gap and also when it comes to like the political whether it's grandstanding whatever you want to call it in terms of like what's happened here on the data centers and
这会缩小差距，而且在政治方面，无论是哗众取宠还是你想怎么称呼它，就这里在数据中心方面发生的事情而言，
data centers are the hearts and lungs of the AI revolution. So if you have like moratoriums and you shut down data centers, the winner in that becomes China relative to what could happen here in the US. So I actually think like the biggest sort of risk when you think about what could happen to AI revolution. It's not capbacks. It's not use cases. The biggest risk is just the political piece gets in the way in terms of the data center buildouts because I think that's something where any every data center that gets voted down
数据中心是人工智能革命的心脏和肺。所以，如果你有暂停令并关闭数据中心，那么相对于美国这里可能发生的事情，赢家将是中国。所以我实际上认为，当你考虑人工智能革命可能发生什么时，最大的风险不是资本支出，也不是用例。最大的风险只是政治因素阻碍了数据中心的建设，因为我认为，每一个被否决的数据中心，
Yeah.
是的。
China smiles.
中国就会微笑。
I think we have time for this question. It's a really good one. It's from Brendan in Maryland.
我想我们有时间回答这个问题。这是一个非常好的问题。它来自马里兰州的布伦丹。
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
是的。是的。是的。
He he has a question for He says, "You've likened the AI revolution to building out the Vegas strip in the 50s. Can you elaborate on this analogy? What role is Microsoft playing here? Are the hyperscalers like the big casinos? And famously, does the house always win?
他有一个问题要问。他说：“你把人工智能革命比作在50年代建造拉斯维加斯大道。你能详细说明这个类比吗？微软在这里扮演什么角色？超大规模云服务商就像大赌场吗？而且众所周知，庄家总是赢吗？”
Great, great, great, great question. Look, and the reason I talk about like Vegas 1955 because if someone told you in 1955 what eventually the sphere was going to be and what Vegas was, but then all of a sudden in 1956 there was an issue with the building. You're like, ah, it's the strip thing's not going to happen. It's not going to work. It just that's big tech companies. Like that's their view, right? Like go back to Mic if you like Microsoft is a good example like two months ago, right?
好，好，好，好问题。你看，我之所以提到1955年的拉斯维加斯，是因为如果有人在1955年告诉你，最终球体（Sphere）会是什么样子，拉斯维加斯会是什么样子，但突然在1956年，建筑出了问题。你会说，啊，那条带子的事情不会发生了。行不通的。这就是大型科技公司的看法，对吧？就像回到微软，如果你喜欢微软，微软就是一个很好的例子，比如两个月前，对吧？
Like New York City cab drivers bearish on Microsoft and that now look today, right? There's ticker tape parades for it. It just speaks like cuz you have like Nadella is a north star and he's able to see
就像纽约市的出租车司机看空微软，而现在再看看今天，对吧？有彩带游行庆祝它。这恰恰说明，因为你有纳德拉这样的北极星，他能够看到远方。
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