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AI生成应用时代,SaaS的护城河还剩哪些?

AI Generated Apps vs SaaS: Which Moats Still Work in 2026

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What I'm going to talk about today is the ra the rise of AI generated apps and what it means for SAS. And I know there's quite a few people who are here who are asking themselves the same question. You have a SAS whether it's small, whether it's mediumsiz, whether it's already pretty large and you're like what is going to be the impact of the basically generated apps on what we do. So first a little bit about who I am.

我今天要讲的是AI生成应用的兴起,以及它对SaaS意味着什么。我知道在座有不少人都在问自己同样的问题。你有一个SaaS,无论它是小型的、中型的,还是已经相当大规模的,你都会想:这些基本上由AI生成的应用会对我们所做的事情产生什么影响?所以首先简单介绍一下我自己。

Uh as was mentioned, I'm the creator of DN Simple. I've been running that now for 16 years. Uh I'm also a software developer and it turns out it's actually a lot longer than that. So, I don't even want to talk about that, but I do want to talk about why you might want to trust me. So, as you can see here, I have a business that I've been running for quite a long time. I'm the CEO of that. Uh, we've had competitors from all over the place, from the biggest companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, all the way down to the smallest new competitors that are trying to do things to eat our lunch.

嗯,正如刚才提到的,我是DN Simple的创始人。我已经经营这家公司16年了。嗯,我还是一名软件开发人员,而且实际上我从事这行的时间比这还要长得多。所以,我甚至不想谈那个,但我确实想谈谈为什么你可能要相信我。所以,正如你在这里看到的,我有一个我已经经营了很长时间的业务。我是那家公司的CEO。嗯,我们有过来自各地的竞争对手,从像谷歌、微软和亚马逊这样的大公司,一直到那些试图抢我们饭碗的最小的新竞争对手。

I'm also starting another business at the same time. So, I'm doing this from the other side as an independent who's also trying to use generative AI to do things. So, I am both the enemy and the friend. So why you shouldn't trust me though is because I don't have a crystal ball. I cannot see the future. I have no idea what these companies are going to do. All right? So they could and as we've seen the pace has been incredible how fast this stuff has been happening.

与此同时,我也在创办另一家企业。所以,我是从另一个角度来做这件事的,作为一个独立开发者,也在尝试使用生成式AI来做事情。所以,我既是敌人又是朋友。那么,为什么你不应该相信我呢?因为我没有水晶球。我看不到未来。我不知道这些公司会做什么。好吗?所以它们可能——而且我们已经看到了——这些事情发生的速度是令人难以置信的。

So what I tell you now might or might not work in the near future, but I have some fairly high confidence. So first let's talk about state-of-the-art. So fact generative AI makes building software easier than ever before. Coding assistants are helping non-engineers build software and dark factories are starting to build software with little human involvement. That's happening right now and it's happening at a breakneck speed.

所以,我现在告诉你的东西在不久的将来可能会奏效,也可能不会,但我有相当高的信心。所以首先让我们谈谈最先进的水平。事实上,生成式AI让构建软件变得比以往任何时候都更容易。编码助手正在帮助非工程师构建软件,而暗工厂(dark factories)开始以很少的人力参与来构建软件。这正在发生,而且正在以惊人的速度发生。

So that's the state-of-the-art. It's happening. It's coming. It's already out there. You have to be ready for it. A lot of the previous SAS modes that would have worked before aren't going to work in the same way. But I want to take a look at them real quick. I have four SAS modes that some of you or all of you have probably heard about. Uh the first is network effects. So that means that the more people that can use your software together and connect together, the more value they get out of it.

所以这就是最先进的水平。它正在发生。它正在到来。它已经在那里了。你必须为此做好准备。很多以前行得通的SaaS模式,现在不会以同样的方式起作用了。但我想快速看一下它们。我有四种SaaS模式,你们中有些人或所有人都可能听说过。嗯,第一种是网络效应。这意味着,越多的人能一起使用你的软件并相互连接,他们从中获得的价值就越大。

The second is proprietary data and knowledge. That means the data and knowledge that you have inside your systems is where the value is. The third is deep workflow integration. So that's your software works with other software and other systems to be able to make things work smoother and better for your customers. And finally, one of the previous SAS modes was high switching cost. Once you've invested time to put your data and energy into a SAS, it's kind of hard to leave.

第二是专有数据和知识。这意味着你系统内部的数据和知识才是价值所在。第三是深度工作流集成。也就是说,你的软件要与其他软件和系统协同工作,以便为客户提供更顺畅、更好的体验。最后,之前SaaS的一个模式是高转换成本。一旦你投入时间将数据和精力放入某个SaaS,就很难离开。

And a lot of SAS has capitalize on that to keep you from leaving. But not all those are defensible in this new environment. So for example, features used to be something that would set SAS apart. They would build features that nobody else had. Uh they would do the high switching costs and they'd have the integration. Those aren't defensible anymore, especially the features side because it takes less and less time to put out features for software.

许多SaaS利用这一点来阻止你离开。但并非所有这些在新环境中都站得住脚。例如,功能曾经是SaaS区分于其他产品的特点。他们会构建别人没有的功能。他们会设置高转换成本,并拥有集成。这些不再具有防御性,尤其是功能方面,因为发布软件功能所需的时间越来越少。

So that's why you're you're if you haven't seen it yet or if you haven't experienced yet inside your SAS, you will probably start building and releasing features faster than you have before once you start adopting the generative AI tools for software development. But high switching costs are no longer there because you can use those same tools to help guide you and even execute leaving one provider to go to another provider.

所以,如果你还没有在你的SaaS中看到或体验到这一点,一旦你开始采用生成式AI工具进行软件开发,你可能会比以前更快地构建和发布功能。但高转换成本已不复存在,因为你可以使用同样的工具来帮助你指导,甚至执行从一个供应商迁移到另一个供应商。

Same with integrations. So this one I'm a little sketchy on. I'm not 100% sure because integrations are still really difficult because change is happening at a break neck speed also at the places where you integrate with. So now you have to deal with that as well. But generally I don't think those are defensible anymore. So what modes are still viable? So the first one that I want to talk about is is uh is collaboration.

集成也是如此。这一点我有些不确定,不是百分百肯定,因为集成仍然非常困难,因为变化发生得极快,在你集成的那些地方也是如此。所以你现在也必须处理这个问题。但总的来说,我认为这些不再具有防御性。那么哪些模式仍然可行?首先我想谈的是协作。

So this is one of the areas where you should probably focus. So software where value grows as human collaboration or agent collaboration grows is where there is more value. Why is that? Because it's that network effect. The network effect is still real. Interconnected systems are something that that somebody that's generating an app for their own use or inside of their business. They're not looking for network effects.

这是你应该重点关注的领域之一。随着人类协作或代理协作的增长,价值也随之增长的软件,才是更有价值的。为什么?因为那是网络效应。网络效应仍然真实存在。互联系统是那些为自己使用或在自己业务内部生成应用的人所追求的。他们并不寻求网络效应。

They they don't need network effects because they're trying to solve one single problem. But as a SAS, you do need to look for network effects in places where collaboration helps. The second thing I want to talk about is regulated environments. So I I've spoken to a lot of SAS founders over the years here at Microcom and I know a lot of you are niched into regulated environment areas. Whether those are things that require HIPPA compliance, whether it's things that are require very specific knowledge about some industry around safety, uh things like that.

他们不需要网络效应,因为他们试图解决单一问题。但作为SAS,你确实需要在协作有帮助的地方寻找网络效应。我想谈的第二件事是受监管的环境。多年来,我在Microcom与许多SAS创始人交谈过,我知道你们中的许多人专注于受监管的环境领域。无论是需要HIPPA合规的事情,还是需要对某些行业安全有非常具体知识的事情,等等。

That's actually a really good space to continue working in. Why? because generated apps are going to be really hard to live in these regulated environments because they're going to be done in a way that's sort of chaotic and random and regulation and randomness do not go well together. So this is the second area where I'd say if you're building a SAS and you're looking for a niche, keep that keep your mind open to that.

这实际上是一个很好的继续工作的领域。为什么?因为生成的应用程序将很难适应这些受监管的环境,因为它们将以一种混乱和随机的方式完成,而监管和随机性并不相配。所以这是第二个领域,我想说,如果你正在构建SAS并寻找利基市场,请对这个领域保持开放的心态。

Hey, Rob Walling here. If you're watching this and thinking, I wish I could be in the room for talks like this, you can and you should. So much of the magic at our events happen in the hallway track. That's where you connect with two to 300 like-minded founders who are trying to solve many of the same problems you are. I hope you'll join us at our next event. Head to micromp.com/events to grab your ticket. Our next one is in Iceland in September of 2026 and then we'll be in Austin in April of 2027.

嘿,我是Rob Walling。如果你正在观看这个视频,并想着,我希望我能参加这样的演讲,你可以,而且你应该。我们活动中很多神奇的事情都发生在走廊交流中。在那里,你可以与两到三百位志同道合的创始人建立联系,他们正在努力解决许多与你相同的问题。我希望你能参加我们的下一次活动。前往micromp.com/events购买门票。我们的下一场活动将于2026年9月在冰岛举行,然后我们将在2027年4月在奥斯汀举行。

The third thing I want to talk about which isn't really an environment is operational excellence. Uh so when I talk about this I talk a lot about it from the from the engineering side of operational excellence. As more code is produced by generative AI the quality of that code will necessarily go down. It's inevitable. There will not be as highquality code. So more code will be produced. Pressure is going to shift from the development of the code to the operations of those codes.

我想谈的第三件事,实际上并不是环境,而是运营卓越。当我谈到这个时,我很多是从工程角度谈运营卓越。随着生成式AI产生越来越多的代码,这些代码的质量必然会下降。这是不可避免的。代码质量不会那么高。所以会产生更多的代码。压力将从代码开发转移到这些代码的运营上。

So the better that you can be inside of your organization with operational excellence, especially technical excellence, the better chance you'll have inside of your SAS company to survive because frankly, people are going to be using these one-off apps and a lot of them are going to suck really, really bad. They're going to do the job, but they're going to be worse and they're going to break more often than anything that they've ever used before.

所以,在你的组织内部,你在运营卓越方面做得越好,尤其是技术卓越,你在SAS公司中生存的机会就越大,因为坦率地说,人们会使用这些一次性的应用程序,其中很多会非常糟糕。它们能完成工作,但会更差,而且会比他们以前用过的任何东西都更容易出故障。

So they're going to be looking for cases where operational excellence is still in place. Another thing that I want to talk about and this is the final one is I want to talk about internet infrastructure. So um capex is still a mode. So that's capital expenditures. It's still if you if it costs money to do what you do. So in other words money that not everybody else has to invest. You have a moat still. So I'll take DN simple as an example.

所以他们将会寻找那些运营卓越仍然存在的案例。我想谈的另一件事,也是最后一件事,是互联网基础设施。所以,嗯,资本支出仍然是一种模式。那就是资本支出。如果你做的事情需要花钱,那仍然是。换句话说,不是所有人都必须投资的资金。你仍然有护城河。所以我就以DN simple为例。

We work in a world where DNS has a very specific design that requires servers all over the world. That's a capex expense that we have to to do in order to make it work at the scale that we work at and even at a small scale because your customers are any anywhere in the world. It's a it's basically a factor that restricts people from entering into our space. So the areas of internet infrastructure which is going to be necessary and that's hosting uh I've met folks here who do sma

我们工作的世界中,DNS有一个非常特定的设计,需要遍布全球的服务器。这是我们为了使其在我们工作的规模下运行,甚至在小规模下运行所必须承担的资本支出,因为你的客户遍布世界各地。这基本上是一个限制人们进入我们领域的因素。所以互联网基础设施领域是必要的,那就是托管,我在这里遇到了一些做sma的人。

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