欧洲热浪致莱茵河水位创新低，航运受阻
Europe's Heat Wave Disrupts Key River Shipping Route
This is a sort of a kind of obscure town here in Germany of Kaub, but it sits right kind of in the middle of the Rhine River, which is, of course, one of the most important waterways within Europe and particularly for German industry. It services all the Southwest companies there, of Germany and is attaches effectively the North Sea through The Netherlands, through France and Germany, and into Switzerland. And, of course, there are canals that also connect it to the Danube, which then flows, towards the Black Sea.
这是德国考布的一个不太知名的小镇，但它正好位于莱茵河的中段，而莱茵河无疑是欧洲最重要的水道之一，尤其对德国工业而言。它服务于德国西南部的所有公司，并有效地连接了北海，途经荷兰、法国和德国，直达瑞士。当然，还有运河将其与多瑙河相连，多瑙河随后流向黑海。
So one of the most important waterways here in Europe, and what we've got here in Kaub is the shallowest point, between basically in the center of the Rhine River. And what we've been seeing are historic averages of all these sort of records being broken of the shallowest level we've reached here. You can see behind me there, this is the water gauging station tower there, which reads the number centimeters of clearance that there is.
因此，这里是欧洲最重要的水道之一，而考布这里正是莱茵河中心最浅的点。我们一直看到的是，历史平均记录不断被打破，达到了我们在这里所见的最浅水位。你可以看到我身后那座水位测量塔，它读取的是净空高度的厘米数。
It's reading, at 11 right now. We should say that the former record was 25 centimeters. That was set back in 2018, and we are now hitting new records basically every day this week. We're now at 11. And the issue is, Lizzy, is that those records were made last time in 2018 back in October. We are now only in August. We may be at the very beginning of this. And what it will mean effectively, Lizzy, is that if these ships cannot, cross this point, it effectively bisects the Rhine River, and that is gonna cause a number of issues for a number of different companies.
目前读数是11。应该说，之前的记录是25厘米，那是在2018年创下的，而我们现在本周几乎每天都在刷新纪录。现在到了11。问题在于，Lizzy，那些记录是上次2018年10月创下的，而现在才8月。我们可能才刚刚开始。而这意味着，Lizzy，如果这些船只无法通过这个点，实际上就切断了莱茵河，这将对许多不同的公司造成一系列问题。
Thyssenkrupp, BASF, of course, Rheinmetall named after, the Rhine River itself, are all companies, that are situated across, this river. We should also say that it'll have enough impact on the German economy. We've heard some estimates. We're a little bit skeptical potentially of the estimates because this is very hard to calculate, but we've heard from ING saying that this could cause German growth 0.3% of growth this year, which is close to what we're expecting about half of German growth this year.
蒂森克虏伯、巴斯夫，当然还有以莱茵河命名的莱茵金属，都是分布在这条河沿岸的公司。我们还应该说，这将对德国经济产生足够大的影响。我们听到了一些估计。我们可能对这些估计有些怀疑，因为这很难计算，但我们听到荷兰国际集团表示，这可能导致德国今年经济增长减少0.3%，这接近我们预期的今年德国经济增长的一半。
So something we're watching very closely. Of course, we're gonna get some earnings from a number of companies, including Thyssenkrupp today. So we'll see what commentary they have to say and what the effect could be for the company itself. Yeah. It will be really interesting to hear from that company. I have to say, Oli, I'm slightly disappointed you're not in the river with your ruler and your wellies for us, but good that the tower can tell us the height of the water levels as things stand.
这是我们正在密切关注的事情。当然，今天我们会收到一些公司的财报，包括蒂森克虏伯。所以我们来看看他们会发表什么评论，以及这对公司本身可能产生什么影响。是的，听听那家公司的消息确实会很有趣。奥利，我得说，我有点失望你没有拿着尺子穿着雨靴站在河里，但好在塔能告诉我们当前的水位高度。
Look. If this is gonna be the new normal, are governments and logistics companies making long term adjustments to adapt to it? Yeah. Absolutely, Lizzy. So this is something we've seen adjustments already be made back from those records we reached back in 2018. So you have a number of these companies. So you'll remember back in 2018, actually, BASF and Thyssenkrupp, this was one of the factors that actually contributed to them declaring profit warnings as a result of the water levels being too low and them not being able to move that inventory.
看，如果这将成为新常态，政府和物流公司是否正在做出长期调整以适应它？是的，绝对如此，利兹。所以这是我们自2018年达到那些记录以来已经看到调整的事情。所以你有许多这样的公司。你记得在2018年，实际上，巴斯夫和蒂森克虏伯，这是导致他们发布利润预警的因素之一，因为水位太低，他们无法移动那些库存。
That being said, we're already getting some statements from BASF, for example, saying that they may actually not rule out a force majeure potentially this year, because of the low water levels. We have Thyssenkrupp saying that they're having some issues getting some of the raw materials up and down the river, so it's still going to have an impact. But, also, that being said, it's having an on some government policy, Lizzy.
话虽如此，我们已经从巴斯夫等公司得到一些声明，例如，他们可能不排除今年因低水位而出现不可抗力。蒂森克虏伯表示，他们在河上运输一些原材料时遇到了一些问题，所以这仍将产生影响。但同样，话虽如此，这也对政府政策产生了影响，利兹。
We've been hearing from a number of the German states, one of the most, some of the most economically productive. They have basically suspended the ban on driving trucks on Sundays as a consequence of this issue of water supply and not being able to move things up and down the river in order to allow, those trucks to to drive around Germany on Sundays, is something that they traditionally ban. So, again, it's having effects on these companies.
我们一直听到来自德国一些州的消息，其中一些是经济生产力最高的州。他们基本上暂停了周日禁止卡车行驶的禁令，原因是水资源供应问题以及无法在河上运输物资，为了允许那些卡车在周日绕行德国，这是他们传统上禁止的。所以，这再次对这些公司产生了影响。
It's gonna have an effect on the economy of some kind. But, again, Lizzy, the big question is gonna be how long does this persist? Will this go for a number of months? In which case, this is really unprecedented, and this will be really new territory for the economy.
这将对经济产生某种影响。但同样，利兹，大问题是这种情况会持续多久？会持续几个月吗？如果是这样，这真的是前所未有的，这将是经济真正的新领域。
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