中国北极冰上丝绸之路解析
China’s ‘Arctic Silk Road’ Explained
If there's one geographical feature that's defined global conflict in 2026, it's maritime choke points. In March, in response to US attacks on Iran, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade choke point between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. And last month, the Houthis, an Iranianbacked rebel group in Yemen, also closed the Bab al-Mandab, a narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aiden, which Saudi Arabia had been using as a workaround for the Strait of Hormuz.
如果说2026年有一个地理特征定义了全球冲突，那就是海上咽喉要道。三月，为回应美国对伊朗的袭击，伊朗关闭了霍尔木兹海峡——波斯湾与阿曼湾之间至关重要的贸易咽喉。上个月，也门的伊朗支持叛军胡塞武装也关闭了连接红海与亚丁湾的狭窄水道曼德海峡，而沙特阿拉伯此前一直将其作为霍尔木兹海峡的替代路线。
This elevation of chokepoint disruption as a tactic in regional and global conflicts has forced countries to look at their supply chain vulnerabilities to protect their import and export routes. One leading actor here is China which has this week begun using a new shipping route over the Arctic dubbed the ice silk road. This route controlled by Russia runs along Russia's Arctic coast from eastern China to the UK, avoiding both the Bab al-Mandab and China's own critical maritime choke point, the Strait of Malaca.
将咽喉要道中断作为地区及全球冲突中的一种策略，迫使各国审视其供应链脆弱性，以保护进出口路线。其中一个主要参与者是中国，本周已开始使用一条被称为“冰上丝绸之路”的北极新航线。这条由俄罗斯控制的航线沿俄罗斯北极海岸，从中国东部延伸至英国，避开了曼德海峡和中国自身的关键海上咽喉——马六甲海峡。
So, in this video, we'll explain China's reliance on the Strait of Malaca, its Arctic Silk Road Plan, and whether it can work. [music] Trump has always loved criticizing China, but between his first and second presidency, we'd argue he's lost his advantage. You can read how we think Beijing turned the tables on Trump in the latest issue of our magazine, Too Long. That's just one of the articles in our longest issue ever.
因此，在本视频中，我们将解释中国对马六甲海峡的依赖、其北极丝绸之路计划，以及该计划是否可行。[音乐] 特朗普一直喜欢批评中国，但在他第一和第二任期之间，我们认为他已失去了优势。您可以在我们最新一期杂志《太长》中阅读我们认为北京如何扭转对特朗普局面的分析。这只是我们迄今最长一期杂志中的一篇文章。
Subscribe to get your copy by clicking the link in the description. To understand this story, you need some background on critical maritime choke points. We actually made a video on this a few months ago, so you should check that out, too. But essentially, ships carry more than half the world's trade by value and around 85% by volume. The world's two most important maritime choke points are the straight of Hormuz, a 33 km wide passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which 20% of the world's oil and gas used to pass until Iran closed it during the war and the less discussed Straight of Malaca, a waterway connecting the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea.
点击描述中的链接订阅即可获取您的刊物。要理解这个故事，您需要了解关键海上咽喉要道的背景。我们几个月前实际上制作了一个关于此主题的视频，您也应该去看看。但基本上，船舶承载了全球贸易价值的一半以上，以及约85%的贸易量。世界上两个最重要的海上咽喉要道是霍尔木兹海峡——波斯湾与阿曼湾之间33公里宽的通道，全球20%的石油和天然气曾通过此处，直到伊朗在战争期间将其关闭；以及较少被讨论的马六甲海峡——连接印度洋与南海的水道。
For context, the Strait of Malaca stretches between the Indonesian island of Somatra and the Malay Peninsula with Singapore at its southern tip. As such, it's vital for maritime trade between East Asia and the Middle East, Africa, and Europe, with around 17 million barrels of oil a day passing through the Strait of Malaca, slightly less than the Strait of Hormuz pre-war. As a massive exporter of goods and the world's biggest importer of Iranian oil, China is especially dependent on the Strait of Malaca, with 2/3s of all Chinese maritime trade and roughly 80% of China's oil imports passing through it.
作为背景，马六甲海峡延伸在印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛与马来半岛之间，新加坡位于其南端。因此，它对东亚与中东、非洲和欧洲之间的海上贸易至关重要，每天约有1700万桶石油通过马六甲海峡，略少于战前的霍尔木兹海峡。作为商品出口大国和伊朗石油的最大进口国，中国尤其依赖马六甲海峡，中国海上贸易的三分之二以及约80%的石油进口都经过该海峡。
The straight also serves as China's main export route to global markets with virtually all container ships departing from China's eastern ports in Shanghai, Shenzen, Ningbo, and Guangu passing through it to reach Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. As such, China'
该海峡也是中国通往全球市场的主要出口路线，几乎所有从中国东部港口（上海、深圳、宁波和广州）出发的集装箱船都要经过它才能到达欧洲、中东和非洲。因此，中国……
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力