Yardeni上调标普500目标价，称盈利动能强劲

Clearly, we're closer to euphoria now than we were at the beginning of what I still think will be called the roaring 2020s. And, um, I think we're we're seeing that, though, uh, this time around, the euphoria is what I call female, which is fabulous earnings momentum. It's it's not FOMO. Uh, the PE is actually hung around at 20 for a while. Its earnings have been phenomenal. And then this morning we just heard that some of these AI companies are continuing to, you know, have homeruns, have made homeruns.

Absolutely. With Cory, with Cory we've last night. Yeah. Yeah I'm looking at the specs. You know the the wait the normal wait it up 1,213%. But the equal weighted yeah is up 15%. That's right. That's a good sign right. That's a very, very good science. Very healthy. And you know, I call uh I call the 493, you know, there's a magnificent seven and then there's the impressive 493 and this so far this year, they're doing very well, which really shows that the market's broadening.

And I think, you know, I think people have eye fatigue to a large extent. They don't really know which companies are going to be the winners of the losers. So they're kind of, uh, maybe buying indexes and technology. Uh, but, um, the other companies in financials, industrials, health care, those sectors are an all time record highs. Uh, and that's because people understand their businesses and they also figure they might actually benefit from I.

Yeah. Uh, I think everybody's trying to figure out the winners and losers. It doesn't appear that the Fed's going to help the market here. I guess it's a question of will they potentially hurt the market by aggressively raising rates. What's your kind of think it's going to be aggressive I think um the the markets uh were sort of surprised when during the first FOMC meeting that was chaired by the new French chair and that is, uh, Kevin Warsh.

Or he came out so hawkish and said that, uh, his number one priority was to, uh, have price stability because he admitted that the fed has failed to get down to 2% for over five years. And then in July he said it again. And the market said, well, you said that in June. Why can't you do something in July? And so I think the markets are expecting a September rate hike. And, uh, look, I think the bond market would react positively to it, which then would be a positive for the stock market.

You, uh, thank you so much for joining Bloomberg Money. Weeks ago, we had a huge response to that in the single year sentence. Paul, it stopped traffic, uh, on a Friday afternoon was rates are normal. Where rates are now is what they're supposed to supposed to be companies. This is an important concept. I want you to take it back to yield dynamics. Linking economics and investment and finance companies can operate in a legitimate real interest rate, nominal interest rate environment.

Yeah, a lot of the younger who don't think so, they don't believe that. Yeah. Well, something that does kind of get and get my idea, uh, my attention is these days is when people say that all interest rates are going to stay higher for longer, which implies that they should be lower. You know, it's just for you. I say that to be frustrated, but. So what do you mean higher for longer? That 45% is normal. This is where they should be.

This is where they were. The tenure was before the great financial crisis. It was between 4 and 5%. Before the inflation crisis of the 70s it was 4 to 5%. 4 to 5% is actually a vote of confidence. It shows that the economy can function very well. And by the way, it's kind of refreshing to see that the capital markets have been liberated from quantitative easing so that they can actually vote and what where rates should actually be.

And right now, I think 4 to 5% is up as a positive sign. And we're seeing these. The new issuance in the investment grade bond market is off the charts. And it's been absorbed very, very well. How about U.S. versus non-U.S.? I'm looking at my Y function and there's good returns out there. Yeah around the world. And maybe some better valuations outside the U.S.. Much better that. Yeah. Well, uh, we um, more pushing the idea of stay home from Rotate the U.S. from 2010 until late last year.

So we missed the rotation to, uh, go global. Uh, but we kind of I think we caught up. We'll see. Maybe I got whipsawed. Uh, but in December of last year, I said, you know what? I can't really recommend over weighting the U.S. when it accounts for 65% of the market cap of the global MSCI. So, so let's, uh, let's talk about looking for opportunities overseas. And so far this year, it's kind of been even Steven I mean, you know, it has been one or the others.

Well I mean look we've got a global bull market of stocks. That's really what's going on. I want you to address as I did I think it was Friday the glass half empty crew. Mhm. They need to participate. They need to retire. Yeah. They need to be in the game. But their mental framework from childhood whatever. Yeah. Just isn't yard any like. Yeah. Well how did they participate. They didn't have a happy childhood to a large extent.

Look I think they have to stop listening to the perma bears. The perma bears will get them out at the top. They'll get them out in the middle and they'll get them out of the bottom. You'll never be in the market if you kind of constantly get scared by the by the perma bears with stocks. If it's right, if you're upside trading, you've got to be long. Doctor, your Danny says they're never be in the market. I would rephrase it broader pot and say never participate in the American experiment.

Yeah correct. To me it's a broader it's a broader. Yes. It's like almost a Robert Shiller kind of. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly that. If people are looking for opportunities outside of the eye trade, where do you kind of send them these days? Well, I'm not that original. I mean, I just kind of look at other sectors and see which ones are new high. So I kind of let the market guide me. And financials, industrials, health care are all at record highs.

Uh, at the end of last year when we raised the health care to a market, uh, uh, overweight. And that's because we figured if any sector badly needs, uh, to manage information better needs I it's got to be healthcare. Tell me the financials are spending billions of dollars on fintech. You know, I'm really tired of getting cheques for my clients. I mean, I love getting them getting the money. But, you know, why don't I just get Venmo for everybody by now?

So I think there's a lot of productivity gains. And industrials of course, are just benefiting from the ongoing AI boom, which I think is the real deal. What's your concern out there? I know you've been bullish and you've been right. Yeah. What's the concern out there for you. Well you know I mean geopolitics it seems like the markets plowed through. Yeah. Well you know, um, I think those of us who have been doing it for a while and those newbies who haven't, uh, and are getting obstructed in history, history shows that geopolitical crises are buying opportunities.

Uh, the stock market actually bottomed a few months after Pearl Harbor when we blasted the Japanese Navy in midway. And that was way before the war was over. And you hit the market already? Yeah. Look what happened this time around. The market bottomed on March 30th, and we haven't really looked back.