Yardeni：市场接近狂热，但盈利动能强劲

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news Denny with us. We just had Ben Ladler on who nailed the Christmas Eve 2018 call. Then there was a pandemic and Mr. Yardian climbed on board October of 22 and said it is the roaring 20s. John Templeton I mentioned it this week on my Twitter thing. Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. How close to euphoria? Euphoria are we, Dr.

Yeah. I mean, clearly we're closer to for euphoria now than we were at the beginning beginning of what I still think will be called the roaring 2020s. And um I think we're we're seeing that though this time around the euphoria is what I call FIMO which is fabulous earnings momentum. It's it's not FOMO. The the PE has actually hung around at 20 for a while. It's earnings have been phenomenal. And then this morning we just heard that some of these AI companies are continuing to

you know have home runs.

Have home runs. Absolutely. We core wave core wave last night. Yeah.

Yeah. I'm looking at the S spx, you know, the the weight the normal weighted up 12 13% but the equal weighted

Yeah.

is up 15%.

That's right.

That's a good sign, right?

That's a very very good sign. It's very healthy. And you know, I I call uh I I call the 493. You know, there's a magnificent 7 and then there's the impressive 493. And this so far this year, they're doing very well, which really shows that the market's broadening. And I think, you know, I think people have AI fatigue to a large extent. They don't really know which companies are going to be the winners or the losers.

So, they're kind of uh maybe take buying indexes on technology. Uh but um the other companies in financials, industrials, healthcare, those sectors are at all-time record highs. Uh and that's because people understand their businesses and they also figure they might actually benefit from AI.

Yeah. I think everybody's trying to figure out the winners and losers. It doesn't appear that the Fed's going to help the market here. I guess this question of will they potentially hurt the market by aggressively raising rates. And what's your

I don't think it's going to be aggressive. I I I think um the the markets uh were sort of surprised when during the first FOMC meeting that was chaired by the new Fed chair and that is Kevin Walsh where he came out so hawkish and said that uh his number one priority was to uh have price stability because he admitted that the Fed has failed to get down to 2% for over five years. And then in July he said it again and the market said, "Well, you said that in June.

Why why don't you do something in July?" And so I think the markets are expecting a September rate hike. And uh look, I I think the bond market would react positively to it, which then would be a positive for the stock market. You uh thank you so much for joining Bloomberg Money a couple weeks ago. We had a huge response to that in the single yard Denny sentence Paul that stopped traffic uh on a Friday afternoon was rates are normal where rates are now is what they're supposed to be

supposed to be

companies this is important concept I want you to take it back to Yale dynamics linking economics into investment and finance companies can operate in a legitimate real interest rate nominal interest rate environment a lot of the younger crew don't think they don't believe Yeah. Well, something that does kind of get get my uh my attention is these days is when people say, "Oh, interest rates are going to stay higher for longer," which implies that they should be lower.

You know, it's just we're going to be frustrated. But so, what do you mean higher for longer? That four to 5% is normal. This is where they should be. This is where they were. The tenure was be before the great financial crisis. It was between four and 5%. Before the inflation crisis of the 70s, it was 4 to 5%. 4 to 5% is actually a vote of confidence. It shows that the the economy can function very well. And by the way, it's kind of refreshing to see that the capital markets have been liberated from quantitative easing so that they they can actually vote on what where rates should actually be.

And right now, I think four to 5% is a is a positive sign. And we're seeing these the new issuance in the investment grade bond market is off the charts

and it's been absorbed very very well.

How about US versus non US? I'm looking at my WEI function and there's good returns out there. Yeah.

Around the world and maybe some better valuations outside the US. How do you think about that?

Yeah. Well, uh we um were pushing the idea of stay home overweight the US

from 2010 until late last year. So, we missed the the rotation to go global. Uh, but we kind of I think we caught up. We'll see. Maybe I got whipsawed. Uh, but in December of last year, I said, "You know what? I I can't really recommend overweighting the US when it accounts for 65% of the market cap of the global MCI." So, I said, "Let's let's talk about looking for opportunities o overseas." And so far this year, it's kind of been even, Stephen.

I mean, you know, it hasn't been one or the other. Well, I mean, look, we got a global bull market in stocks. That's certainly what's going on.

I want you to address, as I did, I think it was Friday,

the glass half empty crew.

They need to participate. They need to retire. They need to be in the game, but their mental framework from childhood, whatever,

yeah,

just isn't Yarden like.

Yeah.

How do they participate?

They didn't have a happy childhood to to a large extent. Look, I I think they have to stop listening to the perma bears. Uh the perma bears will get them out at the top. They'll get them out in the middle and they'll get them out at the bottom. You'll never be in the market if you kind of con constantly get scared by the by the perma bears. With stocks if it's not if your day job is not trading you you've got to be long.

Dr. Denny says they're never be in the market. I would rephrase it broader Paul and say never participate in the American experiment.

Correct.

To me it's a broader

It's a broader Yes.

It's like almost a Robert Schiller kind of thing. If people are looking for opportunities outside of the AI trade, where do you kind of send them these days?

Well, I'm not that original. I mean, I just kind of look at all the sectors and see which ones are new highs. So, I kind of let the market guide me. And financials, industrials, healthcare are all at record highs. Uh, at the end of last year, we we uh raised healthcare to a market uh overweight. And that's because we figured if any sector badly needs uh to manage information better, needs AI, it's got to be healthare.

But financials are spending billions of dollars on fintech. You know, I'm I'm really tired of getting checks for my clients. I mean, I love getting getting the money, but you know, why don't I just get Venmo from everybody by now? So, I think there's a lot of productivity gains and industrials, of course, are just benefiting from the ongoing AI boom, which I think is the real deal.

What's your concern out there? I know you've been bullish and and you've been right. What's the concern out there for you?

Well, you know,

I mean, geopolitics, it seems like the market's plowed through that. Well, you know, um I I think those of us who've been doing it for a while and those newbies who haven't uh and are getting instructed for in in history, history shows that geopolitical crises are buying opportunities.

Uh the stock market actually bottomed a few months after Pearl Harbor when we blasted the Japanese Navy in Midway and that was way before the war was over and yet the market already and look what happened this time around. The market bottomed on March 30th and we haven't really looked back.

Mrs. Keane emails in. Can you ask Ed how are the dogs in the heat? You got four dogs.