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特朗普对加拿大加征50%关税,涉及200亿美元商品

Why Trump Is Hitting Canada With 50% Tariffs

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特朗普政府对加拿大加征50%关税是已落地的重大贸易政策,直接影响北美贸易格局与相关行业,值得宏观与贸易投资者关注。建议关注后续USMCA谈判进展及对相关板块的冲击。

The Trump administration has announced a new 50% tariff on about $20 billion worth of goods that the U.S. imports from Canada. And this 50% tariff would go on top of any other tariffs that those goods are already facing. These are set to take effect just a month after they were announced. So that'll be August 19th. In some respects, President Trump seems very obsessed with Canada, even though they're a relatively small problem.

特朗普政府宣布对美国从加拿大进口的价值约200亿美元的商品征收新的50%关税。这一50%的关税将叠加在这些商品已经面临的其他关税之上。这些关税在宣布后仅一个月就生效,也就是8月19日。从某些方面来看,特朗普总统似乎对加拿大非常执着,尽管他们的问题相对较小。

A few things are happening here. One is trying to gain some leverage over Canada. But more broadly, they're also trying to send a message to any number of U.S. trading partners. Anybody that retaliates against the U.S. could face this sort of tariff if they do something that the Trump administration doesn't like. The USMCA was President Trump's signature achievement in his first term on the trade front. But just six years later, when it was up for renewal this summer, he decided he didn't want to extend it.

这里发生了几件事。一是试图对加拿大施加一些压力。但更广泛地说,他们也在试图向任何数量的美国贸易伙伴传递一个信息。任何对美国进行报复的国家,如果做了特朗普政府不喜欢的事情,都可能面临这种关税。USMCA是特朗普总统第一任期内在贸易方面的标志性成就。但仅仅六年后的今年夏天,当它需要续签时,他决定不延长它。

That leaves the USMCA in a little bit of limbo. The U.S. has been negotiating with Mexico. We've seen U.S. officials in Mexico City, but Canada is not at the table in the same way. And that does appear to be one reason why we're now seeing this next round of tariffs. The Trump administration, they want to see Canada concede to some of the of the U.S.'s demands in the USMCA. We are intensifying our negotiations with the United States in pursuit of a comprehensive agreement that addresses all tariff-related sectors.

这使得USMCA陷入了一种不确定状态。美国一直在与墨西哥谈判。我们看到美国官员在墨西哥城,但加拿大并没有以同样的方式参与谈判。这似乎是我们现在看到下一轮关税的原因之一。特朗普政府希望看到加拿大在美国在USMCA中的一些要求上做出让步。我们正在加强与美国的谈判,以达成一项涵盖所有关税相关部门的全面协议。

Canada has been very, very tough on us over the years. They need us to survive. The Trump administration has been looking for ways to piece back the tariff agenda that was knocked down by the Supreme Court. So they're being forced to use different authorities. Section 338 here with Canada is one new authority. But section 301 is the way that they're really looking to reimpose most of the tariffs that were deemed unlawful at the start of this year.

多年来,加拿大对我们一直非常非常强硬。他们需要我们才能生存。特朗普政府一直在寻找方法,以重新实施被最高法院否决的关税议程。所以他们被迫使用不同的权力。这里与加拿大相关的第338条是一项新的权力。但第301条是他们真正寻求重新实施今年年初被认定为非法的多数关税的方式。

The forced labor section 301 that imposed a baseline 10 to 12.5% tariff on a number of U.S. trading partners, and nearly 99.5% of everything the U.S. buys from abroad. There are some arguments against that, and we are already seeing that one challenged in court. There's another major section 301 investigation ongoing, and that's looking into this idea of excess capacity, that certain trading partners are producing too much and that that's hurting U.S. manufacturers.

关于强迫劳动的第301条对许多美国贸易伙伴征收了10%至12.5%的基础关税,这几乎覆盖了美国从国外购买的所有商品的99.5%。对此有一些反对意见,我们已经看到这一条款在法庭上受到挑战。另一项重大的第301条调查正在进行中,该调查正在研究产能过剩的问题,即某些贸易伙伴生产过多,这损害了美国制造商。

So another 16 economies are being targeted with that one, including some of the U.S.'s largest trading partners. Canada, the European Union, Mexico, Japan are on that list. So the Trump administration is targeting this as three separate trade actions for three specific industries that they say aren't being treated fairly in Canada. Dairy has long been one of the stickiest trade issues between the U.S. and Canada. Canada has a very, very protected dairy market.

因此,又有16个经济体成为该关税的目标,其中包括美国一些最大的贸易伙伴。加拿大、欧盟、墨西哥、日本都在名单上。特朗普政府正针对三个特定行业发起三项独立的贸易行动,他们称这些行业在加拿大未受到公平对待。乳制品长期以来一直是美加之间最棘手的贸易问题之一。加拿大的乳制品市场受到非常非常严格的保护。

They tried to address this in the first USMCA in the president's first term. They established a system where the U.S. could export a certain amount of dairy products to Canada without paying a tariff. But once that quota is reached, the tariffs get really, really high, 200% in some cases. On the cars and car part piece of this, Canada has pretty dramatically reduced the amount of American cars and car parts that it's buying.

他们在总统第一任期内试图在首个USMCA中解决这个问题。他们建立了一个体系,美国可以向加拿大出口一定数量的乳制品而无需支付关税。但一旦达到配额,关税就会变得非常高,在某些情况下高达200%。在汽车和汽车零部件方面,加拿大已大幅减少了购买的美国汽车和汽车零部件数量。

Part of that is because some U.S. companies, since Trump has taken office a second time, have moved manufacturing from Canada back into the United States. Canada's not happy about that, so they've then reduced the share of imports that can come in from the U.S. without paying a tariff. When the Trump administration started hitting Canada with a lot of tariffs in 2025, Canada felt like they had to do something. They went to China and said, we'll be willing to import some amount of electric vehicles from you.

部分原因是,自特朗普第二次就任总统以来,一些美国公司已将制造业从加拿大迁回美国。加拿大对此不满,因此他们降低了从美国免税进口的份额。当特朗普政府在2025年开始对加拿大征收大量关税时,加拿大觉得他们必须采取行动。他们去找中国,说我们愿意从你们那里进口一定数量的电动汽车。

That was essentially saying to the Trump administration. Look, if you don't give us some decent deal in the USMCA renegotiations, we do have alternatives out there. The alcohol piece of this was one of the first ways that Canada looked to retaliate in this second term against the president's tariffs. Many of the provinces in Canada have basically initiated a ban of purchasing U.S. distilled spirits. We've lost 73% of our American distilled spirits exports to Canada.

这基本上是在向特朗普政府表明:看,如果你们在USMCA重新谈判中不给我们一个像样的协议,我们还有其他选择。酒精部分是本任期内加拿大寻求报复总统关税的首批方式之一。加拿大的许多省份基本上已开始禁止购买美国蒸馏酒。我们对加拿大的美国蒸馏酒出口损失了73%。

As a result, we appreciate and recognize what the Trump administration is trying to do. But we don't want a 50% tariff applied on Canadian distilled spirits. This is a really interesting one because it sounds really big in practice. A 50% tariff on the U.S.'s closest neighbor and one of its top trading partners sounds really, really dramatic and aggressive, but it's really limited in scope, impacting only 5% of what the U.S. buys from Canada.

因此,我们理解并认可特朗普政府正在努力做的事情。但我们不希望加拿大蒸馏酒被征收50%的关税。这真的很有趣,因为听起来在实践中影响很大。对美国最亲密的邻国和其顶级贸易伙伴之一征收50%的关税听起来非常非常激烈和激进,但实际上范围非常有限,只影响美国从加拿大购买商品的5%。

And it's a lot of goods that importers could simply buy from somewhere else rather than pay this tariff.

而且其中很多商品,进口商完全可以转而从其他地方购买,而不是支付这笔关税。

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