Yardeni：标普500目标上调至8400，盈利增长强劲
Yardeni Says He Hasn't Been Bullish Enough on Earnings
COREWEAVE. ED YARDENI RAISING HIS YOUR END S&P 500 TARGET, REMAINING THE MOST BULLISH ON WALL STREET, ADDING, AI DEMAND LOOKS REAL TO US, BUT IT'S SKYROCKETING GROWTH WILL DECELERATE EVENTUALLY. I'M SO GLAD TO SAY JOINS US THIS MORNING. LET'S START THERE. THIS WAS SOMETHING WE WERE STRUGGLING WITH WITH NICOLAI TANGEN. HE IS BULLISH AI AND SEEING PRODUCTIVITY GAINS. ON THE OTHER HAND, HE IS SAYING THIS IS AS GOOD AS IT GETS WHEN IT COMES TO MARKET RETURNS.
COREWEAVE。埃德·亚德尼上调了他对标准普尔500指数的目标，仍然是华尔街最看涨的人，并补充说，人工智能需求对我们来说看起来是真实的，但其飞速增长最终将放缓。我很高兴他今早加入我们。让我们从这里开始。这是我们与尼古拉·坦根纠结的问题。他看好人工智能，并看到了生产力提升。另一方面，他说就市场回报而言，这已经是最好情况了。
ED: I THINK THE MARKET IS GOING HIGHER AND I THINK IT IS GOING HIGHER ON EARNINGS. I FELT THE NEED TO COIN A NEW ACRONYM, WHICH IS FABULOUS EARNINGS MOMENTUM. WE ALL KNOW ABOUT FOMO, WHICH IS KIND OF NICE WHILE IT WORKS. FOMO IS FEAR OF MISSING OUT. WE SAW THAT IN THE 1999 MELT-UP SITUATION. DON'T BOTHER ME WITH EARNINGS, I JUST HAVE TO BE IN THIS INTERNET CONCEPT. THIS TIME AROUND THE VALUATION MULTIPLES KIND OF STUCK AROUND 20.
埃德：我认为市场会走高，而且我认为它会因盈利而走高。我觉得有必要创造一个新缩写词，即“极佳盈利动能”。我们都知道FOMO，它在起作用时还不错。FOMO是错失恐惧症。我们在1999年的融涨行情中看到了这一点。别拿盈利来烦我，我只需要参与这个互联网概念。而这一次，估值倍数大致停留在20倍左右。
THAT IS NOT LOW, BUT IT IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH. AS LONG AS THE ECONOMY IS GROWING. BUT IT IS EARNINGS THAT HAVE BEEN PHENOMENAL AND SOME OF THAT HAS BEEN MARKED TO MARKET CAPITAL GAINS AND SPACEX, FOR ALPHABET AND AMAZON. BUT TAKE THAT OUT AND YOU HAVE A 25% INCREASE IN EARNINGS IN THE SECOND QUARTER AND ABOUT THE SAME IN THE THIRD AND FOURTH QUARTERS. I HAVE BEEN BULLISH ON EARNINGS, BUT NOT BULLISH ENOUGH. I'M NOT REALLY THE BULL ON WALL STREET, IT IS ALL OF THESE ANALYSTS TO TALK TO COMPANIES AND THE COMPANIES ARE BULLISH.
这不算低，但也不算特别高。只要经济在增长就行。但盈利一直非常出色，其中一些已按市值计入资本利得，比如Alphabet和亚马逊的SpaceX投资。但剔除这些，第二季度盈利增长了25%，第三和第四季度也差不多。我一直看好盈利，但还不够看好。我并不是华尔街真正的多头，是所有这些分析师与公司交谈，而公司本身很乐观。
LISA: I AM CURIOUS ABOUT WHAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH PERFORMANCE IN THE EQUAL WEIGHT. THAT HAS BEEN A SHIFT THIS YEAR VERSUS PREVIOUS YEARS, WHERE THE OUTPERFORMANCE IS COME FROM THE BROADER MARKET. YOU WERE TALKING BEFORE ABOUT HOW THE MARKETS SEEM TO BE OUTPERFORM THE ECONOMY FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS. IS THAT SHIFTING? WHERE NOW WE ARE GOING TO SEE THE REST OF THE ECONOMY OUTPERFORM THE MARKET? ED: THERE IS A VIEW THAT THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT THE ECONOMY, BUT IT IS, BECAUSE IT IS P/E TIMES Z, AND EARNINGS ARE DRIVEN BY THE ECONOMY.
丽莎：我很好奇我们看到的等权重指数的表现。与往年相比，今年出现了一个转变，超额收益来自更广泛的市场。你之前谈到市场似乎多年来一直跑赢经济。这种情况正在转变吗？现在我们是否会看到经济的其他部分跑赢市场？埃德：有一种观点认为股市不是经济，但它是，因为它是市盈率乘以Z，而盈利是由经济驱动的。
I THINK THE RESILIENCE OF THE ECONOMY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN DEMONSTRATED IN THE EARNINGS. AND EARNINGS ARE DRIVING THE STOCK MARKET HIGHER. WITH REGARDS TO YOUR POINT I CALLED THEM THE IMPRESSIVE 493. HAVE THE MAGNIFICENT 7 THAT DID WELL FOR QUITE SOME TIME, AND SO FOR THIS YEAR HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY OUTPERFORMED THE IMPRESSIVE 493. IT IS BECAUSE PEOPLE HAVE AI FATIGUE. YOU KNOW, THESE STOCKS GO UP, DOWN 20 BUCKS, AND SO I THINK PEOPLE ARE JUST KIND OF TAKING AN INDEX APPROACH TO AI, NOT KNOWING WHICH STOCK TO BUY.
我认为经济的韧性和实力已经在盈利中得到了体现。而盈利正在推动股市走高。关于你的观点，我称它们为“令人印象深刻的493”。曾经有“华丽七巨头”在相当长一段时间内表现良好，而今年它们显著跑赢了“令人印象深刻的493”。这是因为人们有AI疲劳。你知道，这些股票涨跌20美元，所以我认为人们只是采取了一种指数化的AI投资方式，不知道该买哪只股票。
MEANWHILE SAYING, WHO ARE THE SURE BENEFICIARIES? I THINK THEY ARE FINDING LOTS OF IDEAS FOR THE FINANCIALS AND HEALTH AND INDUSTRIALS THAT ARE VERY -- THE UNDERSTAND THEIR BUSINESSES AND WE KNOW THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AI COULD HELP. LISA: WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT GOING UP $20, DOWN $20, IS THAT PART OF A PROBLEM WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF LEVERAGE BEING USED IN SPECIFIC SECTORS AND FUNDS? I'M WONDERING WITH THE DEBT PROFILE, THE INVESTMENT THAT IS GOING ON, A LOT OF THIS IS COMING WITH LEVERAGE.
与此同时，说，谁是确定的受益者？我认为他们正在为金融、医疗和工业领域找到很多想法，这些领域非常——他们了解自己的业务，我们知道人工智能很有可能提供帮助。丽莎：当你谈到上涨20美元、下跌20美元时，这是否与特定行业和基金中使用的杠杆数量有关的问题？我想知道债务状况、正在进行的投资，其中很多都带有杠杆。
DOES THAT WORRY YOU? ED: NOT TERRIBLY IN THE SENSE THAT IT IS NOT NECESSARILY A NEW DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE ALWAYS WORRIED ABOUT MARGIN DEBT. WE ARE -- ALWAYS WORRYING ABOUT CREDIT, AND RIGHTLY SO. THE CREDIT MARKETS TEND TO SEE PROBLEMS BEFORE THE STOCK MARKET AND WE SAW THAT CERTAINLY IN 2007, 2008. THAT IS ALWAYS AN ISSUE. ESPECIALLY IF IT GOES BAD AND YOU HAVE A LOT OF DEFAULTS. AND THEN YOU GET A CREDIT CRUNCH AND THEN YOU GET A RECESSION.
这让你担心吗？埃德：不太担心，因为这未必是新的发展。我们一直担心保证金债务。我们——一直在担心信贷，这是理所当然的。信贷市场往往在股市之前看到问题，我们在2007年、2008年肯定看到了这一点。这始终是一个问题。尤其是当情况恶化并且出现大量违约时。然后你会遇到信贷紧缩，然后经济衰退。
I DON'T THINK THE PROBLEMS IN THE DEBT MARKETS, WE ARE SEEING THE HYPERSCALERS BOND YIELDS, THE SPREADS OVER TREASURIES HAVE WIDENED. BUT THEY ARE STILL ABLE TO RAISE MONEY AND NOW NVIDIA CAME UP WITH THIS IDEA THAT, LET'S CALL IN ALL OF THESE TOP FINANCIAL PEOPLE FROM THE HAMPTONS, PUT THEM IN THE HAMPTONS, BRING THEM IN, TO TALK ABOUT $500 BILLION OF FINANCING. NVIDIA BASICALLY SAID OK, ARE YOU WORRYING ABOUT FINANCING?
我不认为债务市场的问题——我们看到超大规模企业的债券收益率，相对于国债的利差已经扩大。但他们仍然能够筹集资金，现在英伟达提出了这个想法，让我们把汉普顿的所有顶级金融人士召集起来，把他们带到汉普顿，让他们来讨论5000亿美元的融资。英伟达基本上说，好吧，你们担心融资吗？
WATCH WHAT WE HAVE TO SAY ABOUT HOW WE ARE GOING TO DO $500 BILLION. I WAS A LITTLE HIGH. IT WAS ALL DONE WITH A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING AND WE KNOW HOW WELL THOSE THINGS ARE GOING THESE DAYS. ANNMARIE: I LOVE THAT YOU THINK THEY CAME IN, BUT WHAT IS FUNNY ABOUT THIS IS, IF YOU THINK THAT IS HYPE AND THAT IS NVIDIA TRYING TO BASICALLY QUELL CONCERNS IN THE MARKET, AND DOES THAT MAKE YOU A LITTLE BIT NERVOUS? ED: I THINK AI IS A FUNDAMENTALLY IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGY.
看看我们关于如何做到5000亿美元要说什么。我有点高估了。这一切都是通过谅解备忘录完成的，我们知道这些日子这些事情进展得有多好。安玛丽：我喜欢你认为他们来了，但有趣的是，如果你认为那是炒作，那是英伟达试图基本上平息市场担忧，那这是否让你有点紧张？埃德：我认为人工智能是一项根本重要的技术。
IT IS NOT A REVOLUTION. IT IS AN EVOLUTION OF THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION THAT STARTED IN THE MID-1960'S WITH MAINFRAMES. THE WHOLE POINT OF THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION IS TO PROCESS AS MUCH INFORMATION AS WE CAN AS FAST AS WE CAN. AS CHEAPLY AS WE CAN. AI IS THE LATEST PROGRESSION OF THAT. NEXT WILL BE QUANTUM COMPUTING MIXED IN WITH AI. THERE IS A LOT OF POSITIVES IN THAT. THERE IS NEGATIVES. SOME COMPANIES WILL FLOURISH. WHILE PEOPLE THOUGHT CYBERSECURITY'S SOFTWARE, LET'S GET OUT OF CYBERSECURITY.
这不是一场革命。这是始于20世纪60年代中期大型机的数字革命的演变。数字革命的要点是尽可能快、尽可能便宜地处理尽可能多的信息。人工智能是这一进程的最新进展。接下来将是量子计算与人工智能的结合。这有很多积极因素。也有消极因素。一些公司会蓬勃发展。而人们认为网络安全软件，让我们退出网络安全。
THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN THEY COME BACK IN REALIZING THAT AS AI GETS SMARTER AND SMARTER WE ARE GOING TO NEED MORE AND MORE CYBERSECURITY PROTECTION. ANNMARIE: YOU SAY YOU HAVE BEEN BULLISH ON EARNINGS BUT NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH AS THE RECENT CONSENSUS OF INDUSTRY ANALYSIS. IS YOUR PRICE TARGET HIGH ENOUGH FOR YOU? DO YOU THINK YOU ARE TO HAVE TO REPRICE? ED: IT IS POSSIBLE. LOOK, I WAS THINKING THAT THE MARKET WOULD BE DISCOUNTING $375 A SHARE AT THE END OF THIS YEAR FOR NEXT YEAR.
然后突然间他们又回来了，意识到随着人工智能变得越来越聪明，我们将需要越来越多的网络安全保护。安玛丽：你说你对盈利持乐观态度，但不像最近行业分析的共识那样乐观。你的目标价对你来说够高吗？你认为你需要重新定价吗？艾德：有可能。听着，我原本以为市场到今年年底会为明年的股价贴现375美元。
NOW I HAVE RAISED DATA $415 A SHARE NEXT YEAR. BY THE END OF THE YEAR IF THE ANALYSTS ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT SOMETHING LIKE 415 FOR NEXT YEAR -- THEY ARE ALREADY TALKING ABOUT 408, SO WE ARE GETTING THERE. 415 TIMES A LITTLE BIT OVER 20 AND YOU GET -- MY NEW TARGET OF 8400. I DEDICATE MY 10,000 FOR THE END OF WHAT I CALL THE ROARING 20 20'S BY THE END OF 1929, 2029. EVEN I GET KIND OF CONFUSED EITHER DECADES HERE. BUT WE ARE IN THE 20 20'S.
现在我已经把明年的数据提高到415美元。到今年年底，如果分析师们还在谈论明年的415左右——他们已经在谈论408了，所以我们正在接近。415乘以略高于20，你就得到——我的新目标价8400。我把我的一万点目标定在我所说的咆哮的20世纪20年代末，即1929年或2029年底。连我自己都有点搞不清这两个十年了。但我们现在处于21世纪20年代。
IT HAS GONE WELL AND I THINK BY THE END OF THE DECADE WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT 10,000. I'M NOT RAISING THAT, BUT I MIGHT. LISA: HOW MUCH IS INFLATION A CONSTRAINT AND I DON'T JUST MEAN THE CPI PRINT WE GET IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. ALSO WHAT THAT DOES TO BONDS, GIVEN THE SPENDING GLOBALLY ED: THE CPI IS WIDELY EXPECTED TO BE ON A CORE BASIS UP TO .5% YEAR-OVER-YEAR. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REALIZE THAT THE CONSUMPTION DEFLATION, WHICH THE FED TENDS TO WATCH MORE CLOSELY, THAT, ACCORDING TO THE CLEVELAND FED'S NOW INFLATION FORECASTING, THAT IS EXPECTED TO RUN 3.3%.
进展顺利，我认为到本十年末我们应该看到一万点。我没有提高这个目标，但我可能会。丽莎：通货膨胀在多大程度上是一个制约因素？我不仅仅指一个半小时后公布的CPI数据。还有这对债券的影响，考虑到全球支出。艾德：CPI被广泛预期核心同比上涨0.5%。重要的是要认识到，美联储往往更密切关注消费通胀，根据克利夫兰联储的即时通胀预测，该数据预计将运行在3.3%。
SO, FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH CAME IN IN JUNE AND SAID, I'M COMMITTED TO PRICE STABILITY, WE HAVE HAD INFLATION TOO HIGH FOR TOO LONG OVER FIVE YEARS. IN JULY HE SAID IT AGAIN AND THE BOND MARKET SEEMED NOT PARTICULARLY SATISFIED, BECAUSE IT'S LIKE, WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR? MAYBE HE IS WAITING FOR CPI. AS YOU SAID, THERE IS A LOT OF DATA THAT IS GOING TO COME OUT. LISA: I'M CURIOUS ABOUT THE BOND VIGILANTES. ARE THEY BACK WHEN IT COMES TO THE 30 YEAR NOTE?
所以，美联储主席凯文·沃什在六月上任时说，我致力于价格稳定，我们的通胀已经过高太久了，超过五年。七月他又说了一遍，债券市场似乎并不特别满意，因为它好像在说，你还在等什么？也许他在等CPI。正如你所说，有很多数据即将公布。丽莎：我对债券义警很好奇。当涉及到30年期国债时，他们回来了吗？
ED: IN JAPAN. [LAUGHTER] COMING BACK GLOBALLY TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. I DON'T REALLY GET FREAKED OUT BY BOND YIELDS BETWEEN 4% AND 5%. THE 10 YEAR IN THE U.S. THE REASON FOR THAT IS, PEOPLE KEEP TALKING ABOUT HIGHER FOR LONGER, IMPLYING THE RATES SHOULD GO DOWN AT SOME POINT, THAT THEY ARE TOO HIGH. THIS IS NORMAL. 4% TO 5% IS WHERE WE WERE BEFORE THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS. IT IS WHERE WE WERE BEFORE THE INFLATION OF THE 1970'S.
艾德：在日本。（笑声）在全球范围内某种程度上回来了。我并不会因为债券收益率在4%到5%之间而惊慌失措。美国10年期国债，原因是，人们一直在谈论更高更久，暗示利率应该在某个时候下降，它们太高了。这是正常的。4%到5%是我们在大金融危机之前的水平。也是我们在20世纪70年代通货膨胀之前的水平。
I THINK IT IS A TESTAMENT TO THE FACT THAT THE ECONOMY IS DOING
我认为这证明了经济正在表现良好。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力