CPI、PPI、FOMC纪要等数据密集窗口来袭

TL;DR

• CPI for July lands August 12, followed by PPI on August 13 and retail sales on August 14, three straight readings that test how much support builds behind the Fed’s hawkish dissent.
• FOMC minutes from the July 28–29 meeting publish August 19, showing how the committee weighed a 9–3 vote marked by the first three-way, same-direction dissent since September 2016.
• The window closes August 26 with the second estimate of Q2 GDP (advance: 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1) and Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 earnings call at 5:00 p.m. ET.
• Weekly BTC and ETH options expire on Deribit at 08:00 UTC on August 14 and August 21, alongside jobless claims, consumer confidence, new home sales data, and the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium we’re co-hosting with SALT (August 17–20).

No Fed, ECB, or Bank of England meeting falls in this window, but the two weeks open against a softer growth backdrop: July’s jobs report, released August 7, showed nonfarm payrolls falling by 23,000 against a forecast gain of roughly 83,000, with May and June revised down by a combined 103,000.

CPI, PPI, and retail sales now carry the job of showing whether that weakness is spreading or was a one-month miss, ahead of FOMC minutes that reveal how seriously the committee took July’s hawkish dissent.

CPI (July): August 12, 2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the July Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, August 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET. This print carries added weight: at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, three regional Fed presidents dissented in favor of a rate hike, the first time since September 2016 that three policymakers aligned on one directional call.

Traders are watching whether this reading supports or undermines that hawkish minority view. If inflation runs above recent trend, some traders may see it as adding weight to the case for a hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting; if it comes in soft, markets may lean toward a hold or a cut.

Historically, CPI surprises have produced some of the sharpest single-day moves across both traditional and crypto markets.

Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD and ETH/USD markets.

PPI (July): August 13, 2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the July Producer Price Index on Thursday, August 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET, one day after CPI. PPI tracks price pressures further up the supply chain and feeds into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures, which releases August 26 alongside the GDP revision.

Coming directly after CPI, this release either reinforces or complicates the emerging inflation narrative heading into the FOMC minutes six days later. If producer prices trend with consumer prices, some traders may see it as confirming the inflation path building through the week; if the two diverge, markets may treat the signal as murkier heading into the minutes.

Historically, PPI draws a smaller reaction than CPI but can still shift the picture built over the week.

Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD and ETH/USD markets.

Retail sales (July): August 14, 2026

The US Census Bureau releases Advance Monthly Retail Sales for July on Friday, August 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Retail sales close out the week’s inflation-and-consumption trio and offer the clearest read yet on whether the consumer is holding up under the current rate environment, a question sharpened by July’s weak jobs report.

Consumption strength feeds directly into GDP nowcasts and shapes how much room the Fed’s hawkish dissenters have to argue for tighter policy going forward. If sales show a resilient consumer, some traders may see this as supportive of a higher-for-longer path; if soft, markets may weigh it against the CPI and PPI reads earlier in the week.

Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD and ETH/USD markets.

FOMC July meeting minutes: August 19, 2026

The Federal Reserve releases minutes from the July 28–29 FOMC meeting on Wednesday, August 19 at 2:00 p.m. ET. That meeting produced a 9–3 vote to hold rates steady, with regional Fed presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan forming a unified dissenting block favoring a quarter-point hike, the first time since September 2016 that three policymakers aligned on one directional dissent.

The minutes show how close that view came to swaying the broader committee. If the minutes reveal broader support for a hike, some traders may see this as raising the odds of a more hawkish path into the September 15–16 meeting; if the dissent looks narrow and isolated, markets may treat the base case as unchanged.

Minutes releases have historically triggered swift moves in rate-sensitive assets, including major crypto pairs, particularly when the tone diverges from the post-meeting statement.

Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and futures markets.

Q2 GDP, second estimate: August 26, 2026

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the second estimate of Q2 GDP and corporate profits on Wednesday, August 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The advance estimate showed growth slowing to a 1.5% annualized pace, down from 2.1% in Q1, a deceleration that came in below consensus and reopened the debate between a soft landing and a more concerning slowdown.

This revision will be read alongside CPI, PPI, and the FOMC minutes from earlier in the window, plus July’s weak jobs report. If it confirms the slowdown, some traders may see it as reinforcing a case for cuts later in the year; if growth is revised higher, markets may lean back toward the hawkish read from the minutes.

Second-estimate revisions typically draw a smaller reaction than the advance print unless the revision is unusually large.

Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD and ETH/USD markets.

Nvidia Q2 FY2027 earnings: August 26, 2026

Nvidia reports second-quarter fiscal 2027 results after market close on Wednesday, August 26, with its analyst call at 5:00 p.m. ET, landing the same day as the GDP revision. Nvidia earnings have become a broad risk-sentiment bellwether, and moves in AI-linked equities have at times spilled into crypto in the same session.

Markets will assess results in real time against Nvidia’s own guidance of approximately $91.0 billion in revenue.

Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD and ETH/USD markets.

Weekly BTC and ETH options expiry: August 14 and August 21, 2026

Deribit’s weekly BTC and ETH options contracts expire at 08:00 UTC on Friday, August 14 and Friday, August 21. These are standard cash-settled, European-style expiries rather than the larger monthly reset, but positioning around each expiry can still influence spot prices as dealers adjust hedges into the settlement window.

The August 14 expiry lands the same day as retail sales, and the August 21 expiry follows two days after the FOMC minutes, compounding potential volatility on both dates.

Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and options markets.

Also on the radar

Also in this window: weekly jobless claims (August 13 and August 20), the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index and new home sales data (both August 25), and the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium we’re co-hosting with SALT (August 17–20) in Jackson Hole. None carry the same immediate market weight as the data above.

What this means for traders

This window is data-dense, but density alone doesn’t make it decisive.

Each release adds one data point to an ongoing rate-path debate rather than settling it outright: CPI, PPI, and retail sales build the inflation-and-consumption picture against a softer jobs backdrop, the FOMC minutes show how seriously the committee weighed the July dissent, and the GDP revision and Nvidia’s earnings close the window by testing broader risk sentiment. None of this points to a predetermined outcome.

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This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risk.