跳到主内容
@wquguru
精选70Bloomberg Podcasts(YouTube)宏观

盖洛普民调:美最高法院支持率降至33%历史新低

SCOTUS Low Approval & NFL Antitrust Exemption | Bloomberg Law

原文
发到 X

This is Bloomberg Law with June Graasso from Bloomberg Radio. In recent years, the Supreme Court has gotten what you might call bad grades from the public, and it's gotten worse since the last term. Americans are now more displeased with the court than at any time in the last 26 years. According to the latest Gallup poll, only 33% of the public approves of the job the Supreme Court is doing, a record low. Joining me is Bloomberg Supreme Court reporter Greg Store.

这里是彭博法律,来自彭博广播的June Graasso。近年来,最高法院从公众那里得到的评价可以说是糟糕的,而且自上个任期以来情况变得更糟。美国人对法院的不满程度比过去26年中的任何时候都要高。根据最新的盖洛普民意调查,只有33%的公众认可最高法院的工作,这是历史新低。和我一起的是彭博最高法院记者Greg Store。

Greg, tell us about the latest polls.

Greg,给我们讲讲最新的民意调查。

There were several new polls that came out after the court's term ended, and by far the worst of them was the Gallup poll that showed the Supreme Court's approval rating plummeting to 33%. That is easily the lowest since Gallup started surveying about the court in 2001. The number went down 9 percentage points from 42% when they took it in September. So really a big decline there. The other polls were not as stark, but for example, a Marquette Law School poll showed the court down two percentage points from a year earlier.

法院任期结束后,有几项新的民意调查出炉,其中最糟糕的是盖洛普民意调查,显示最高法院的支持率暴跌至33%。这显然是自2001年盖洛普开始调查法院以来的最低点。这个数字从9月份调查时的42%下降了9个百分点。所以确实是一个很大的下降。其他民意调查没有那么明显,但例如,马凯特法学院的一项民意调查显示,法院的支持率比一年前下降了2个百分点。

So, it's consistent with the notion that at best the Supreme Court is treading water.

所以,这与最高法院充其量只是在原地踏步的观点是一致的。

In the Gallup poll, was it a slide among Republicans that brought that number down?

在盖洛普民意调查中,是共和党人的下滑导致了数字下降吗?

It was a slide mostly among Republicans. The court's approval ratings were already really low among Democrats and independents. But among Republicans, support dropped 21 percentage points since September. It was 79% in September, fell to 58%. With a plus or minus margin of error of four percentage points, that's definitely a big big drop.

主要是共和党人的下滑。法院在民主党人和独立人士中的支持率已经很低了。但在共和党人中,自9月份以来支持率下降了21个百分点。9月份为79%,降至58%。考虑到正负4个百分点的误差幅度,这绝对是一个巨大的下降。

A huge drop. And you would think that the way the Supreme Court ruled this term on Republican priorities like narrowing agency power, enhancing gun rights, eliminating campaign spending restrictions. The Republicans would be happy with the court. Well, one big reason sure seems to be Donald Trump and the way he's reacted. The court, of course, ruled against him on a couple big issues, including tariffs and his ability to fire Lisa Cook and his birthright citizenship restrictions.

巨大的下降。你会认为最高法院本任期在共和党优先事项上的裁决,如缩小机构权力、增强枪支权利、取消竞选支出限制,会让共和党人对法院感到满意。但一个重要的原因似乎是唐纳德·特朗普及其反应。当然,法院在几个重大问题上对他做出了不利裁决,包括关税、他解雇丽莎·库克的权力以及他的出生公民权限制。

And Donald Trump was extremely aggressive, lashing out at even those justices he appointed like Amy Coney Barrett and Neil Gorsuch. If you recall, after the tariff decision, he said, among other things, that they are an embarrassment to their families. So, Republicans of course do respond very strongly across the board to things Donald Trump says and sure seems like his criticisms of the Supreme Court drag the court down with Republicans.

唐纳德·特朗普非常咄咄逼人,甚至对他任命的那些大法官如艾米·科尼·巴雷特和尼尔·戈萨奇也进行了猛烈抨击。如果你还记得,在关税裁决之后,他说过,除其他外,他们是他们家庭的耻辱。所以,共和党人当然会对唐纳德·特朗普所说的话做出强烈反应,而且看起来他对最高法院的批评确实拖累了共和党人对法院的看法。

Tell us about some of the factors that have made this Supreme Court so unpopular with Democrats and independents.

请告诉我们一些导致这个最高法院在民主党和独立人士中如此不受欢迎的因素。

There have been a lot of forces over the years that have been dragging the court down. This is not just a one-year thing. This has been happening over the course of a couple of decades. And of course, we're seeing institutions in general have their approval ratings falling. But you have a combination of a court that seems more partisan, and indeed they are more partisan in the sense that it's the Republican justices who are now the most conservative and the Democratic justices who are the most liberal.

多年来,有许多力量一直在拖累最高法院。这不是一年两年的事。这种情况已经持续了几十年。当然,我们看到整个机构的支持率都在下降。但你们有一个似乎更加党派化的法院,而且事实上他们确实更加党派化,因为共和党大法官现在是最保守的,而民主党大法官是最自由的。

You have things like the ethical controversies that we had a few years ago that were very much in the news. Clarence Thomas accepting trips uh paid for by a Republican mega donor. You have the way the court acquired this conservative supermajority with Republicans holding one seat open after Antinine Scalia died and then rushing to fill another one when Ruth Bader Ginsburg died. So there's kind of a perfect storm. Oh, I haven't even mentioned overturning Roie Wade, which obviously was a decision that was highprofile and among many people extremely unpopular.

你们有像几年前我们看到的道德争议,这些争议在新闻中非常突出。克拉伦斯·托马斯接受了由共和党超级捐赠者支付的旅行。你们有法院获得保守派绝对多数的方式,共和党人在安东尼·斯卡利亚去世后扣住一个席位空缺,然后在露丝·巴德·金斯伯格去世时匆忙填补另一个席位。所以这有点像完美风暴。哦,我甚至还没提到推翻罗伊诉韦德案,这显然是一个高调的决定,而且在许多人中极其不受欢迎。

So a combination of factors have kind of gotten us to this point. So there were two decisions where the Supreme Court went against President Trump on the tariffs and birthright citizenship in the sea of decisions where they, you know, helped move forward his agenda on the regular docket and on the shadow docket. Some people are pointing to that, even Justice Kagan are pointing to those two as well. We're holding the line here.

所以各种因素的结合让我们走到了这一步。所以有两个决定,最高法院在关税和出生公民权问题上反对了特朗普总统,而在其他一系列决定中,你知道,他们在常规议程和影子议程上帮助推进了他的议程。有些人指出这一点,甚至卡根大法官也指出这两个。我们在这里坚守底线。

Well, I did think that Justice Kagan's remarks this summer were very interesting because after the ruling that overturned Roie Wade three years ago, she pretty much called into question the court's legitimacy in a couple public appearances, saying that when the court is overturning cases isn't being consistent, that it can call into question its own legitimacy. So, the fact that she was in at least in some sense standing up for the court this summer, I did think was notable.

嗯,我确实认为卡根大法官今年夏天的言论非常有趣,因为在三年前推翻罗伊诉韦德案的裁决之后,她在几次公开露面中几乎质疑了法院的合法性,说当法院推翻案件时不一致,这可能会质疑其自身的合法性。所以,她至少在某种程度上为法院辩护这一事实,我确实认为值得注意。

Having said that, she was very strongly in descent from a number of the decisions you mentioned where the conservative majority uh moved the law in a particular direction in a way that conservatives have been hoping for for quite a long time.

话虽如此,她对你提到的许多决定都强烈反对,在这些决定中,保守派多数将法律推向了一个特定的方向,这是保守派长期以来一直希望的。

Is anybody else buying that argument that, you know, oh well, we held the line on these two cases where if they hadn't held the line, it would have been shocking. You know, Jude, I I hate to say this as somebody who covers the Supreme Court, spends all my waking hours or at least my work hours thinking about how to communicate what the Supreme Court is doing. But the truth is, a lot of Americans don't pay attention to what the Supreme Court is doing unless it's one of these mega cases like overturning Roie Wade or deciding a presidential election or something like that.

还有人在买账那个论点吗,就是,你知道,哦好吧,我们在那两个案子上守住了底线,如果他们没守住,那才叫震惊呢。你知道,Jude,我作为报道最高法院的人,我所有清醒的时间,至少是工作时间,都在思考如何传达最高法院在做什么,我讨厌这么说。但事实是,很多美国人并不关注最高法院在做什么,除非是像推翻罗伊诉韦德案或者决定总统选举之类的重大案件。

So, you know, people often have impressions of the court. They've heard a little bit. If you look at these polls, it's kind of remarkable how little people have heard about some cases that I think everybody's heard about, first rate, citizenship, tariffs, things that you you mentioned. Uh so, you know, what people think of the court may be in a lot of cases more impressionistic than something that is really tied to particular decisions that that came out.

所以,你知道,人们往往对法院有印象。他们听说过一点。如果你看这些民调,就会发现人们对某些案件的了解之少令人惊讶,而我认为这些案件是每个人都听说过的,比如第一修正案、公民身份、关税,你提到的那些。所以,你知道,人们对法院的看法在很多情况下可能更多是印象式的,而不是真正与具体判决挂钩的。

And in your story, you write that the justices have said in public that they don't consider polls.

在你的报道中,你写道大法官们公开表示他们不考虑民调。

Yeah. They've said that over and over in a variety of different contexts. So, one thing I mentioned in the story was in the Dobs ruling which overturned Roie Wade. Uh, Justice Alo mentioned that the, as he put it, the judicial branch derives its legitimacy not from following public opinion, but from deciding by its best lives whether legislative enactments of the popular branches of government comport with the Constitution.

是的。他们在各种不同的场合反复说过。所以,我在报道中提到的一件事是,在推翻罗伊诉韦德案的多布斯判决中,阿利托大法官提到,正如他所说,司法部门的合法性不是来自遵循公众舆论,而是通过其最佳判断来决定民选部门的立法是否符合宪法。

Other justices have said similar things. On the other hand, we discussed Justice Kagan talking about the court's legitimacy. The court and I would venture to say all the justices understand that their legitimacy is really important as a country, as a republic. We need people, both average people and other members of the government to accept Supreme Court decisions even if they don't agree with them. We need people to be like Al Gore who can say after the Bush v.Gore your decision.

其他大法官也说过类似的话。另一方面,我们讨论了卡根大法官关于法院合法性的言论。法院,我敢说所有大法官都明白,他们的合法性对于一个国家、一个共和国来说非常重要。我们需要人们,无论是普通人还是政府其他成员,接受最高法院的判决,即使他们不同意。我们需要人们像阿尔·戈尔那样,在布什诉戈尔案判决后能说:

I disagree strongly, but I accept it. Otherwise, you know, we run the risk of chaos where despite what the Supreme Court says, people say we are going to go off in our own direction, interpret the Constitution our own way.

我强烈不同意,但我接受。否则,你知道,我们就有陷入混乱的风险,尽管最高法院说了什么,人们还是会说我们要走自己的路,按我们自己的方式解释宪法。

I know they say that they don't care about the polls in public, but I have this feeling like some of them must be a little bit upset about the fact that they're at record lows and that, you know, the public is seeing them as politicians in robes. I mean they come out and defend themselves and you see you know Justice Roberts trying to emphasize the number of unanimous decisions and also talk about we don't overturn president as much as some past justices.

我知道他们公开说不在乎民调,但我有种感觉,他们中的一些人肯定对支持率创历史新低、公众把他们看作穿长袍的政客这件事有点沮丧。我是说,他们出来为自己辩护,你会看到罗伯茨大法官试图强调一致裁决的数量,还谈到他们不像过去一些大法官那样频繁推翻先例。

I mean it seems like they're doing a lot of explaining. It is certainly the case that if you went to any of the nine of them and said you're acting like a politician, they would uh tell you in very strongly worded terms why they don't think they're a politician, why they are just interpreting statutes and interpreting the Constitution the way they think they should be interpreted.

我是说,他们似乎做了很多解释。当然,如果你去找他们九个人中的任何一位,说他们表现得像个政客,他们会用非常强烈的措辞告诉你,为什么他们认为自己不是政客,为什么他们只是在按照他们认为应该解释的方式解释法规和宪法。

I am puzzled by one of t

我对其中一个感到困惑。

原文超出正文长度上限,此处截断——上游还有内容,完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。

更进一步:量化金融体系

看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力

进入量化体系 →

相似阅读

另一事件,读法相近