布伦特原油升破89美元，美伊僵局或推油价至150美元

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. Good morning. It's Wednesday, the 12th of August. I'm Steven Carroll in London. Coming up today, the $150 oil risk. Doubts over a hormer's deal push crude higher as Bloomberg Intelligence says a frozen conflict piles more pressure on prices. Europe's solar aligned power system braces for today's solar eclipse. Plus, London's white collar exodus.

Why 90,000 bankers, lawyers, and other professionals could be leaving the UK capital in the coming years. Let's start with the roundup of our top stories. Oil prices are continuing to grind higher as skepticism grows over the prospects for a deal to restore energy flows through the straight of Hormuz. Brent crude now trading above $89 a barrel after jumping by around 12% over the past five sessions. Bloomberg Intelligence says a frozen US Iran conflict is now the most plausible scenario.

It warns that that could push oil into a range of $100 to $150 a barrel with the upper end becoming increasingly possible as market buffers erode. Noam Raidan is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. It is unlikely that we're going to go back to the maritime arrangement that existed in the Strait of Hormuz before the Iran war. Iran has gained immense influence in the strait. It will not let go of this leverage it has obtained easily.

No Raidan's assessment comes as the latest US government forecast for oil supply disruption from the war to reach about 600,000 barrels a day until the end of next year. Adding to the squeeze, Russia's overseas crude shipments have fallen to their lowest since May amid continued Ukrainian strikes on its oil infrastructure. Keeve hit five Russian refineries in the first week of August and another two in recent days.

Well, the rise in oil prices comes as the US and Iran both appear to be hardening their positions in negotiations over the straight of Hormuz. That's despite Pakistan's defense minister saying the two countries are close to some sort of arrangement. Former US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman is more skeptical.

I wish I did share Pakistan's optimism and I will hope that there is more reality to this than I think there is. We are definitely at a stalemate.

Wendy Sherman speaking there. Her view comes as President Trump told reporters last night that he's in no rush to secure a deal and that the US is in a very good position. How long the conflict continues could also matter for the Fed with the Iran war adding to inflation pressures ahead of crucial US inflation data later today. Boston Fed President Susan Collins has told the Financial Times she could back a September rate hike if the data dictates, warning inflation remains too high.

A split between the United States and Japan over Bank of Japan policy risks undermining their joint efforts to support the yen. Japan's Prime Minister Sai Takichi is wary of raising interest rates too high too fast. While US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson sees monetary tightening is crucial to supporting the currency. The end has already given back some of the gains from the first coordinated US Japan intervention since 1998.

Our markets live strategist Mark Cranfield says the BOJ's next move will be crucial. So the BOJ speakers will really have a big sway on whether or not people get serious about a September rate hike, but it probably needs September and October to come back to back for people to really get behind the yen. As Bloomberg's Mark Cranfield, expectations are building for another BOJ rate hike in September or October as the yen again nears 160 to the dollar.

Cororeweave shares have surged after booming AI demand bolstered the company's sales growth. The computing provider raised its outlook to a range of 12.4 billion to 13.2 billion for the full year after revenue more than doubled in the second quarter. Gallora, head of technology research at DA Davidson, says the results are an encouraging step for the firm. It's incrementally positive. There is still a really big question about whether we even need neoclouds, whether they're a good business.

At the base of it is, are they getting a good enough return on investment to pay for the very expensive capital that they have to borrow and I think that what investors are seeing today, they took a small step in the right direction. Jay Davidson's Galloria there, Cororeweave shares rose by more than 15% in after hours trading after the report was released. They had been up 26% this year through the close. The business which serves customers like OpenAI, Meta, and Microsoft has borrowed tens of billions of dollars and is spending heavily on AI chips and data centers to meet demand.

A German airport has been disrupted by a rogue drone, adding to a string of recent incidents. Hanover's regional airport was closed for 2 hours yesterday morning after a drone was cited. Germany's airports have been plagued by a series of such events with one device laden with explosives found near a Ukrainian plane last week. Duragel has reported that an internal police report isn't ruling out foreign involvement. A Europe's power grids are preparing for a rare solar eclipse later today which will temporarily cut generation across the continent.

If skies are clear, solar output could fall by about 9.7 gawatts with gas, hydroelectric, and nuclear generation available to cover the shortfall. But for most of us, the eclipse will be less about managing power supplies and more about the spectacle. Steven Price, chair of the Bristol Astronomical Society, describes what might be in store.

The light goes dim, silvery kind of a light, not like sunset or sunrise. Quite different. The temperature drops very slightly. And also the birds if they're singing they stop singing. So the effect on the crowd is one really of just all.

Steven Price on the eclipse which will fully cover the sun in northern Spain and Iceland. In the UK about 96% of the sun will be covered by the moon in parts of Cornwall. And those are your top stories on the markets this morning. The MSE Irish Pacific index up by 7/10en of 1%. We have got the cost being sold up by 3.6% as well. a boost to SKH Highex and Samsung Electronics shares. Euro stocks 50 futures are down by a tenth of 1% this morning.

Uh Footsie 100 futures are 210 lower. Oil prices $8951 for Brent crude higher on the day. Natural gas prices are rising as well, although lower than where they were this time yesterday. The Dutch ETF benchmark up by 1.8% and the Japanese yen is trading at 15943 against the dollar. Well, in a moment, we'll bring you more on those oil prices grinding higher. Plus, why recruiters see thousands of lawyer and banker jobs moving out of London.

But another story that caught our eye this morning on how best to measure the weakness of the yen. Another story that we've been tracking on markets as well. Move over the Big Mac index. You now need the Katsu Curry index. Luckily, Jeff U from BNY Melon, a regular here on Bloomberg Radio, has created it. He argues the index is a better international price comparison for how the retreat of the yen feels in Japan. It's trading, as we said, just close to 160 against the dollar.

Not quite there this morning. But if you reflected in purchasing power of curry dishes by Jeff's measure, the dollar should buy just around 62 yen. That suggests the foreign exchange market significantly undervaluing the currency. If you use the Big Mac index, it's around 80 yen. Now he uses uh prices and data from the world's biggest curry rice chain Koko Ichabana for his measurements. He says that if the price of a Katsu curry or a bowl of ramen becomes prohibitive in Japan, it will probably lead to growing calls for a policy change and if the goal is to bring purchasing power in line with highincome countries, the index shows that the end needs to be a lot stronger.

Great time to be thinking about Katsu Curry.