腾讯财报成中国AI行业试金石
Tencent Earnings a Litmus Test for China's AI Sector | The China Show | 8/12/2026
YVONNE: 9:00 A.M. IN SHANGHAI. YOU ARE WATCHING "THE CHINA SHOW ." ON THE YVONNE MAN WITH DAVID INGLES. DAVID: OUR TOP STORIES TODAY, CORE INFLATION NUMBERS, PRICES EDGING UP, UNCERTAINTY OVER CRUDE AND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. YVONNE: INVESTORS LOOKING FOR SIGNS THAT OPERATORS CAN BALANCE RETURNS WITH BIG SPENDING ON AI. DAVID: MANUS SAYS ITS DIVORCE FROM THAT IS NEARING COMPLETION, AFTER BEIJING -- FROM MET A IS NEARING COMPLETION COME AFTER BEIJING BLOCKED THE TAKEOVER.
伊冯：上海时间上午9点。您正在收看由伊冯·曼和大卫·英格尔斯主持的《中国秀》。大卫：今天的主要新闻，核心通胀数据，物价小幅上涨，原油及霍尔木兹海峡的不确定性。伊冯：投资者正在寻找运营商能否在回报与人工智能巨额支出之间取得平衡的迹象。大卫：Manus表示，与那家公司的分拆即将完成，此前北京阻止了该收购。
YVONNE: A NEW FUND TARGETING AI AND OTHER INDUSTRIES. WE HEAR EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE DEPUTY INNOVATION AND GROWTH MINISTER. ALL RIGHT, WE ARE BACK TOGETHER ONCE AGAIN. DAVID: YEP. YVONNE: I KNOW THE VIEWERS HAVE BEEN WONDERING WHERE WE'VE BEEN ALL OF AUGUST AND JULY. DAVID: THIS SUMMER. YVONNE: WHAT HAVE WE MISSED? YOU'VE BEEN QUIET. DAVID: IT'S A GOOD WINDOW TO TAKE YOUR FOOT OFF THE PEDAL. YVONNE: YEAH. OIL IS A LITTLE BIT VOLATILE, DOING OK GIVEN THE U.S., BUT I THINK ALL EYES WILL BE ON THIS TODAY AS WELL.
伊冯：一只针对人工智能和其他行业的新基金。我们独家采访了创新与增长部副部长。好的，我们再次相聚。大卫：是的。伊冯：我知道观众一直在想我们七八月份去哪儿了。大卫：这个夏天。伊冯：我们错过了什么？你一直很安静。大卫：这是一个松油门的好时机。伊冯：是的。石油有点波动，但考虑到美国的情况，表现还行，但我认为今天大家也会关注这个。
DAVID: THAT SEEMS TO BE WHAT MARKET IS LOOKING AT, WE ARE LOOKING AT THAT, PEOPLE WANT TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT, HOW HIGH INFLATION WILL BE, AND THE EXCHANGE CLEAR THAT INFLATION IS HEADED DOWN. WE WILL GET CONFIRMATION IF IN FACT THAT IS THE CASE, THE WEDNESDAY SESSION. ALL THINGS EQUAL, I THINK WE ARE DOING WELL ON EQUITY MARKETS, AND WE ARE GOING THROUGH A LOT OF EARNINGS AND MAINLAND CHINA, 90% OF THE INDEX REPORT OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
大卫：这似乎是市场关注的焦点，我们也在关注，人们想弄清楚通胀会有多高，并且明确通胀正在下行。如果确实如此，我们将在周三的交易中得到确认。在其他条件不变的情况下，我认为我们在股市上表现不错，而且我们正在经历中国大陆的大量财报，未来几周内指数中90%的公司将公布业绩。
THE BIGGEST ONE SET TO REPORT TODAY. YVONNE: TENCENT, YEAH. HE'S LOOKING AT EVERYTHING, RIGHT? THE SIGNALS TO SUGGEST MAYBE THIS WHOLE HARD AI TECH TRADE, YOU KNOW, THE MOMENTUM CORRECTION IS ALMOST NEAR THE END, RIGHT? EVERYTHING FROM MARKET PRICING, LEVERAGE AND ALL OF THAT. IT WILL BE KEY TO SEE WHETHER THE EARNINGS PICTURE CAN JUSTIFY THAT MAYBE THERE'S MORE MOMENTUM, BECAUSE THERE WAS A PRETTY BIG SELLOFF YESTERDAY, TOO.
今天将公布财报的最大公司。伊冯：腾讯，是的。他正在关注一切，对吧？那些信号表明，也许这整个硬AI科技交易，你知道，动量修正几乎接近尾声了，对吧？从市场定价、杠杆等等一切。关键要看财报能否证明或许还有更多动能，因为昨天也有相当大的抛售。
DAVID: THERE WAS A BIG ONE. TO YOUR POINT, INTERNET IS ONE OF THE THINGS THAT GOLDMAN SACHS THINKS HE SHOULD GET INTO. HE WILL BE COMING INTO THE SHOW IN ABOUT AN HOUR'S TIME TO TALK US THROUGH IT. THERE'S A BIG SELLOFF GOING INTO THE SESSION TODAY. BIG NEWS OUT OF NEW ZEALAND, THE STATUS QUO, POLITICS SHOW, A LITTLE BIT OF A TUNE INCOME OF THE KIWI DOLLAR TO THE DOWNSIDE, AS WE DID HEAR, OF COURSE, NO CHANGE. STILL SOME CORNERS WERE EXPECTING, SEEING THE PRIME MINISTER MAYBE WOULD RESIGN.
大卫：确实是大抛售。你说得对，互联网是高盛认为他应该进入的领域之一。大约一小时后他将来到节目，为我们解读。今天开盘前有大抛售。新西兰传来大新闻，维持现状，政治秀，纽元小幅下跌，因为我们确实听到，当然，没有变化。但仍有一些角落预期，看到总理可能会辞职。
THAT'S NOT THE CASE. IT TAKES US INTO EQUITY MARKETS, WHICH WE DISCUSSED, WITH VIEWERS FUTURES, THE LOOK ACROSS THE ASIA-PACIFIC, TAIWAN COMING ONLINE, AND DOING BETTER THAN MOST AT 2% TO THE UPSIDE. MACRO PICTURE, THE DOLLAR, U.S. 10 YEAR YIELD, INFLATION, WE HAVE OIL, PRESIDENT TRUMP IN FACT SPEAKING I BELIEVE STILL RIGHT NOW, DISCUSSING THE PROSPECTS WITH IRAN, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. HE WILL CONTROL HORMUZ, THAT IS FRESH INFORMATION.
情况并非如此。这让我们进入股票市场，我们之前讨论过，随着观众期货，亚太地区的展望，台湾即将上线，表现优于大多数，上涨2%。宏观方面，美元、美国10年期国债收益率、通胀，我们有石油，特朗普总统实际上我认为现在还在讲话，讨论与伊朗、霍尔木兹海峡的前景。他将控制霍尔木兹，这是最新消息。
GOLD FUTURES ARE -- HAVE BEEN INCHING HIGHER AND HIGHER TODAY. YESTERDAY WITH THE PROSPECT, CLOSER TO 4500 THAN WE ARE TO 4000 COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST WEEK. . WE TALKED ABOUT A SELLOFF OVERNIGHT. HERE IS HOW THIS LOOKS. TENCENT MUSIC IS ONE WE ARE TALKING TODAY GIVEN THE 12% DROP OVERNIGHT. BASICALLY FUTURES COMING UP ON YOUR SCREEN. YOU HAVE A SOFTER HONG KONG DOLLAR, WHICH HAS BEEN INCHING VERY CLOSE, CLOSING CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND, AND DOLLAR CHINA ON YOUR SCREEN, CALLING FOR A MUTED OPEN.
黄金期货今天一直在逐步走高。昨天，随着前景，比上周这个时候更接近4500而不是4000。我们谈到了隔夜的抛售。这是它的样子。腾讯音乐是我们今天讨论的，因为隔夜下跌了12%。基本上期货出现在你的屏幕上。港元走软，一直非常接近，周末收盘接近，美元兑人民币在你的屏幕上，预示着开盘平淡。
YVONNE: YEAH. FOR THESE MARKETS, LET'S BRING IN OUR MANAGING EDITOR FOR ASIA EQUITIES, LANSING, THIS BIG SELLOFF IN CHINA INTERNET NAMES, WALK US THROUGH WHAT WE SAW IN THE OPEN SESSION AND WALL STREET.
伊冯：是的。对于这些市场，让我们请我们的亚洲股票管理编辑兰辛，中国互联网股的大幅抛售，请向我们介绍开盘时段和华尔街的情况。
YEAH. IT WAS REALLY ABOUT AI EARNINGS GENEROUS -- JITTERS, I SHOULD SAY, KICKING OFF THE INTERNET NAMES REPORTING SEASON. WE'VE GOT JD.COM TOMORROW, BAIDU EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALIBABA COMING SOON AS WELL. AND, YOU KNOW, THE CHINESE HYPERSCALERS HAVE ACTUALLY OUTPERFORMED IN THE LAST 4, 5 WEEKS, OR SO, SO THIS IS PROBABLY WHERE INVESTORS TAKE SOME CHIPS OFF THE TABLE AND SEE HOW THE EARNINGS ACTUALLY PLAY OUT. A FEW BIG THINGS PEOPLE ARE WATCHING OUT FOR, ONE KEY THING IS AI DEPLOYMENT, AND THE SECOND THING IS THE CAPEX FIGURES AND WHETHER THAT WILL BE OFFSET BY THE KIND OF MONETIZATION FOR THE AI DEPLOYMENT PERIODS OF TENCENT IS A GREAT EXAMPLE, RIGHT?
是的。这实际上是关于AI收益的紧张情绪，我应该说，开启了互联网公司财报季。我们明天有京东，下周初有百度，阿里巴巴也很快。而且，你知道，中国的超大规模企业在过去4、5周左右实际上表现优于大盘，所以这可能是投资者获利了结并观察财报实际表现的时候。人们关注的一些大事，一个关键是AI部署，第二是资本支出数字，以及这些是否会被AI部署的货币化所抵消，腾讯就是一个很好的例子，对吧？
WE'VE GOT THE WORK BUT HE GAINING A LOT OF TRACTION. WE WILL SEE WHETHER THEY WILL ACTUALLY SAY SOMETHING ABOUT THE DEPLOYMENT, THE MONETIZATION OF SUCH AI AGENTS. THE GOOD THING HERE IS THAT THE INTERNET NAMED THE VALUATIONS ARE STILL VERY DEPRESSED. IF YOU LOOK AT TENCENT, THEY ARE TRADING AT ABOUT 12 TIMES FORWARD PE. THAT'S NOT FAR FROM THE LOWEST LEVEL OF 11 TIMES, SO A LOT OF THAT NEWS HAS BEEN PRICED IN. DAVID: LIANTING, YOU MENTIONED AI.
我们已经有了工作，但它获得了很大的关注。我们将看看他们是否真的会谈论部署、这些AI代理的货币化。好消息是互联网公司的估值仍然非常低迷。如果你看腾讯，他们的远期市盈率约为12倍。这离11倍的最低水平不远，所以很多消息已经被定价了。大卫：兰辛，你提到了AI。
YOU KNOW, THAT HAS REALLY SHOWED UP IN THE RALLY BEFORE JULY, AND A LOT OF THE ON SHORTLISTED HARDWARE NAMES, WE KNOW, OF COURSE, WE SEEN A TECHNICAL BULL MARKET IN THE A LOT OF THE BENCHMARKS. THIS PULLBACK WE SAW IN, YOU KNOW, LEVERAGE, ONSHORE. THAT BEING SAID, DO THINGS SEEM BRIGHTER FOR THEM TO, I GUESS, BOUNCE AFTER THE SELLOFF? LIANTING: YEAH. DEFINITELY. THERE ARE PROBABLY ACROSS SECTORS AT PLAY. ONE, AS YOU MENTIONED, IS THE DELEVERAGING, RIGHT?
你知道，这在7月前的反弹中确实表现得很明显，而且很多入围的硬件公司，我们知道，当然，我们在许多基准指数中看到了技术性牛市。我们看到的这次回调，你知道，在杠杆、在岸方面。话虽如此，对他们来说，在抛售之后反弹的前景是否更光明了？连婷：是的，绝对如此。可能涉及多个板块。一个，正如你提到的，是去杠杆化，对吧？
THE STOCK DOWN 20% LAST MONTH ALONE. ACCORDING TO OUR BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE, THEY ARE SAYING THE DELEVERAGING THEY SAW ON SHORE IS NEARING AN END. THAT MEANS THE POSITIONING IS A BIT LIGHTER. PEOPLE HAVE PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE ROOM TO ADD A BIT OF LEVERAGE BACK INTO THE MARKET. THE SECOND IS THE IPO. CXMT, A BIG ONE A FEW WEEKS AGO, THAT WAS LISTED ON THE BOARD, AND THE NEXT ONE, UNY TREE, ANOTHER DEAL IN THE ROBOTICS PHASE WILL BE LISTED IN THE STOP BOARD AS WELL.
仅上个月股价就下跌了20%。根据我们的彭博情报，他们认为在岸去杠杆化已接近尾声。这意味着仓位有所减轻。人们可能还有更多空间将一些杠杆重新加回市场。第二是IPO。CXMT，几周前的一个大项目，在科创板上市，下一个是宇树科技，另一笔机器人领域的交易也将在科创板上市。
CSMC WILL BE ADDED IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, SAME THING FOR UNITREE AS WELL, THESE COMPANIES LIKELY TO DO WELL, I WOULD SAY. THAT IS THE SECOND THING. CHINA'S AI HYPERSCALERS SPENDING LANDSCAPE IS SORT OF WHERE U.S. WAS IN 2023, WHICH MEANS THEY ARE STILL RAMP-UP TO GO FOR CHINA'S HYPERSCALERS TO SPEND ON AI. WHO IS GOING TO BENEFIT FROM THAT? IT'S THE AI HARDWARE NAMES LISTED ON STAR 50. THINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY POSITIVE RIGHT NOW.
华虹半导体将在未来几个月内加入，宇树科技也是如此，这些公司可能会表现良好，我想说。这是第二点。中国AI超大规模企业的支出格局大致相当于美国2023年的水平，这意味着中国超大规模企业在AI上的支出仍在加速。谁会从中受益？是科创板50指数中列出的AI硬件公司。目前情况看起来相当积极。
DAVID: LIANTING, THANK YOU. LIANTING TU, OUR MANAGING EDITOR FOR ASIA EQUITIES. JOINING US FROM SINGAPORE RIGHT NOW IS CHRISTINA WOON, EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS, PORTFOLIO MANAGER. SINCE YOU LAST CAME ON, SIX WEEKS BACK, JUST WHEN THAT DELEVERAGING AND THE PULLBACK IN ASIA WAS JUST ABOUT TO GET STARTED -- THE REASON I BRING IT UP IS BECAUSE ONE OF YOUR CONVICTION CALLS IS ALL THIS HAS PROVIDED AN OPPORTUNITY TO REPOSITION, YOU SAY.
大卫：连婷，谢谢你。连婷·涂，我们的亚洲股票管理编辑。现在从新加坡加入我们的是克里斯蒂娜·温，瀚亚投资的投资组合经理。自从你上次来节目，六周前，正好是亚洲去杠杆化和回调即将开始的时候——我提起这个是因为你的一项坚定判断是，这一切提供了重新调整仓位的机会，你是这么说的。
CAN YOU TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT WHAT YOU GUYS HAVE DONE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS? CHRISTINA: YEAH. I MEAN, THAT'S ACTUALLY A GREAT THING TO START OFF, BECAUSE JULY HAS BEEN PRETTY EVENTFUL. WE SAW QUITE A HEAVY SELLOFF ACROSS THE TECH HEAVY MARKETS. WHAT I MEAN ABOUT REPOSITIONING OR FINDING OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SELLOFF IS REALLY SOME OF THESE THEMES OR ANGLES THAT PERHAPS WE WERE NOT ABLE TO PARTICIPATE IN OR AS MUCH BEFORE, WE WERE ABLE TO VENT PICK UP A MUCH CHEAPER EVALUATION.
你能多谈谈你们在过去几周做了什么吗？克里斯蒂娜：是的。我的意思是，这其实是一个很好的开头，因为7月相当多事。我们看到科技股重仓市场出现了相当严重的抛售。我所说的重新调整仓位或在抛售中寻找机会，是指一些我们之前可能无法参与或参与不多的主题或角度，我们现在能够以更便宜的估值买入。
IF WE TALK ABOUT CHINA TECH AS AN EXAMPLE, THIS YEAR, WE SAW MANY OF THESE NAMES BURNING VERY HOT AS WELL. THE PULLBACK WE SAW IN JULY ALLOWED US TO SIFT ACROSS DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN, THE SAME IN TAIWAN AND KOREA AS WELL. THAT'S WHY THE LAST MONTH HAS BEEN QUITE GOOD OPPORTUNITY WISE FOR ACTIVE STOCK PICKERS IN THE MARKET. YVONNE: WHAT ARE SOME OF THE METRICS THAT YOU LOOK TO SEE, THAT MAYBE THIS DELEVERAGING PROCESS IS OVER, RIGHT?
如果我们以中国科技为例，今年我们看到许多这样的名字也非常火热。7月份的回调让我们得以筛选供应链的不同部分，台湾和韩国也是如此。这就是为什么过去一个月对于市场上的主动选股者来说是一个相当好的机会。YVONNE：您会关注哪些指标，来判断去杠杆化过程可能已经结束？
WHETHER IT IS KOREA OR CHINA. SOME OF THE THINGS LIKE EARNINGS OR FUNDAMENTALS STILL LOOKED PRETTY OK. THE LEVERAGE STORY SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE NOW, BUT WHAT ARE THE CLEAR SIGNS FOR YOU THAT THINGS ARE LOOKING MORE STABLE THAN BEFORE? CHRISTINA: SURE. I WOULD SAY EVALUATIONS SHOULD BE ONE KEY THING TO LOOK AT, A LOT OF THESE VALUATIONS COME OFF OF PRIOR PEAKS. THERE A LITTLE BIT OF A BUFFER IN THERE. THEN, OF COURSE, WE HAVE TO ANCHOR THIS TO FUNDAMENTALS.
无论是韩国还是中国。像盈利或基本面这样的东西看起来仍然相当不错。杠杆的故事现在似乎更多了一些，但您认为哪些明确的迹象表明情况比以前更稳定了？CHRISTINA：当然。我会说估值应该是关键要看的点之一，许多估值已经从之前的峰值回落。那里有一点缓冲。然后，当然，我们必须将其与基本面挂钩。
I THINK THE EARNINGS SEASON WE'VE SEEN SO FAR HAS PROVIDED SOME COMFORT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE TECH TRADE. I THINK ONE OF THE KEY THINGS THE MARKET WAS LOOKING OU
我认为迄今为止我们看到的财报季提供了一些安慰，尤其是在科技交易方面。我认为市场一直在关注的关键事情之一是
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