SpaceX股价暴跌致455.8万股内部人奖励解锁失败
SpaceX crashed too hard for insiders’ bonus unlock
SpaceX作为明星股，其内部人解锁失败事件罕见且影响重大，值得投资者关注其股价波动与解锁机制。建议关注后续股价走势及内部人持股动向。
Although mainstream media covered insiders’ massive unlock of 911.5 million SpaceX shares worth $101 billion on August 6, very few people realize that an additional unlock on that date failed because SpaceX’s stock price had crashed so badly.
尽管主流媒体在8月6日报道了内部人士大规模解锁SpaceX价值1010亿美元的9.115亿股股票，但很少有人意识到，当天还有一次额外的解锁未能实现，因为SpaceX的股价暴跌得如此严重。
That second, bonus tranche of 455.8 million shares required SpaceX to close at or above $175.50 per share, i.e. 30% above the formal $135 IPO price, for at least five of 10 trading days leading into its August 4 earnings report.
第二批额外股份（4.558亿股）要求SpaceX在8月4日财报发布前的10个交易日中，至少有5个交易日收盘价达到或超过每股175.50美元，即比正式的135美元IPO价格高出30%。
SpaceX held nowhere close to that threshold in Nasdaq trading. The condition failed.
SpaceX在纳斯达克交易中远未达到该门槛。条件未能满足。
The market capitalization of SpaceX was only able to reach its momentary, $3 trillion peak because Elon Musk floated only a tiny quantity of shares in the IPO.
SpaceX的市值之所以能达到短暂的3万亿美元峰值，仅仅是因为埃隆·马斯克在IPO中只发行了极少量的股票。
Artificially limiting supply far below demand for his popular company created a three-day surge from $150 to $225.64 per share.
人为地将供应量限制在远低于其热门公司需求水平之下，导致股价在三天内从150美元飙升至225.64美元。
That was the peak. A swift retracement followed once investors started to prepare for insiders to unlock and sell their allocations.
那是峰值。一旦投资者开始为内部人士解锁并出售其配股做准备，股价便迅速回落。
All-time stock chart of Space Exploration Technologies. Source: Tradingview
Space Exploration Technologies的历史股价图。来源：Tradingview
SpaceX insiders fail to unlock 455.8 million shares
SpaceX内部人士未能解锁4.558亿股
By the first unlock on August 6, SpaceX had declined 38% from its peak.
到8月6日首次解锁时，SpaceX股价已从峰值下跌38%。
On that day, 911.5 million more shares came out of lockup. The supply increased by $101 billion of newly tradable stock, yet almost nobody asked why an additional tranche of 455.8 million shares stayed locked.
当天，又有9.115亿股股票解禁。新增可交易股票供应量达1010亿美元，但几乎没有人问为什么另外4.558亿股仍处于锁定状态。
The answer, per SpaceX’s own prospectus, is that Musk’s stock crashed so badly.
根据SpaceX自己的招股说明书，答案是马斯克的股票暴跌得太严重了。
Because the company failed to maintain a trading range at least 30% above the $135 IPO price within the 10 trading days prior to its inaugural earnings report, the bonus stayed locked.
由于该公司未能在首次财报发布前的10个交易日内维持至少比135美元IPO价格高出30%的交易区间，这笔额外股份仍被锁定。
It was nowhere close. Of all 10 closing prices within the trading window, zero cleared $175.50. The best of them, $125.33 on earnings day itself, missed the bar by an embarrassing 29%.
远未达到要求。在交易窗口内的所有10个收盘价中，没有一个超过175.50美元。其中最好的收盘价是财报发布当天的125.33美元，仍比目标低29%，令人尴尬。
The earnings report wasn’t the problem. Revenue nearly doubled, and finance chief Bret Johnsen said “2026 has been a momentous year so far, and the second quarter demonstrated the true power of SpaceX.”
财报本身没有问题。营收几乎翻了一番，首席财务官布雷特·约翰森表示：“2026年迄今为止是意义重大的一年，第二季度展示了SpaceX的真正实力。”
SpaceX IPO banks yell ‘buy’ as stock craters
SpaceX IPO承销银行在股价暴跌时高喊“买入”
Read more: Some SpaceX bonds have already sunk to junk-like territory
阅读更多：部分SpaceX债券已跌至垃圾级区间
Elon Musk blames short-sellers
埃隆·马斯克指责卖空者
Protos has chronicled the slide in SpaceX shares since last month, including analyst research coverage by its IPO-underwriting banks that invariably rated it “Buy.”
Protos自去年以来一直在追踪SpaceX股价的下跌，包括其IPO承销银行发布的分析师研究报告，这些报告无一例外地给予“买入”评级。
Despite their glowing, self-interested forecasts, the stock fell 53% from its June 16 peak to an all-time low of $104.83 by August 3.
尽管这些预测光鲜亮丽且带有私利，但股价从6月16日的峰值下跌了53%，到8月3日跌至104.83美元的历史低点。
Skeptical short-sellers had amassed a roughly $25 billion position by late July, about a third of the float. Enraged, Musk posted, “The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low.”
截至7月底，持怀疑态度的做空者已累计约250亿美元的头寸，约占流通股的三分之一。马斯克愤怒地发帖称：“长期维持对SpaceX大量空头头寸的公司生存概率非常低。”
The stock printed its all-time low less than three weeks after Musk posted.
马斯克发帖后不到三周，股价便创下历史新低。
The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low
长期维持对SpaceX大量空头头寸的公司生存概率非常低
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 17, 2026
—— 埃隆·马斯克（@elonmusk）2026年7月17日
Musk had no stake in these particular deadline either way. His 6.4 billion shares remain locked until June 2027, and no performance trigger can release them early.
马斯克对这些特定截止日期并无利害关系。他的64亿股股票将被锁定至2027年6月，且没有任何业绩触发条件能提前解锁。
The market, for its part, shrugged off the unlock that did happen. SPCX climbed 3% by late morning on unlock day and ended the session up 6%. The next day, it added another 16%.
市场方面，对确实发生的解锁反应平淡。解锁日当天上午晚些时候，SPCX上涨3%，收盘时上涨6%。次日又上涨16%。
By Monday, it had closed back above its $135 IPO price for the first time since mid-July.
到周一，该股自7月中旬以来首次收于135美元的IPO发行价之上。
The rebound arrived four trading days after it could no longer help unlock insiders’ 455.8 million restricted shares.
反弹发生在无法再帮助内部人士解锁4.558亿股限制性股票后的第四个交易日。
At $175.50 per share, this bonus tranche that never unlocked was worth about $80 billion — and now cannot be sold. Quite the missed payday.
按每股175.50美元计算，这批从未解锁的奖金股价值约800亿美元——如今已无法出售。这真是一次错过的发薪日。
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The post SpaceX crashed too hard for insiders’ bonus unlock appeared first on Protos.
“SpaceX暴跌导致内部人士奖金解锁无望”一文最初出现在Protos上。
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